NFL Week 6 Prop Bets: Fade the speed?
The NFL season rolls on, and while we’ve previewed the Week 6 odds and the Week 6 game bets to make, there’s still the matter of NFL Week 6 prop bets to get to.
Betting on player prop bets allows you to invest in a single player instead of an entire team for four quarters. Prop bets are the lifeblood of football bettors and are the perfect cross between daily fantasy football and in the weeds sports wagering.
Rob Dauster is a big fan of prop betting. He went through the NFL Week 6 prop bets and analyzed the best bets to place.
NFL WEEK 6 PROP BETS
LAMAR JACKSON: Under 49.5 rushing yards
Lamar Jackson is the reigning NFL MVP and one of the most exciting young quarterbacks this side of Patrick Mahomes. He’s the engine that makes the Ravens running game … well, run. And he’s coming off of a game against the Bengals where he finished with all of three yards on just two carries.
What the what?
Here’s the deal: Jackson is dealing with a knee injury. It was enough to hold him out of practice on Wednesday. He also missed practice on Thursday, but that was, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, due to a “stomach ache”. The question that you have to ask yourself now is whether or not you believe that the two carries he was limited to against Cincinnati were due to the fact that the Ravens were blowing out the Bengals, or because his knee is not actually healthy?
I’m going with the latter, and considering that I fully expect the Ravens to run roughshod over the Eagles on Sunday, I’m envisioning a future where Jackson is handing the ball off all afternoon.
JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER: Under 59.5 receiving yards
During his first two seasons in the NFL, when Juju was looked at as one of the most exciting young wide receivers in the NFL, his average depth of target was in the range of nine yards.
Through four games this season, Juju’s average depth of target is five yards. He’s basically turned into Jarvis Landry or Jamison Crowder, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing for a guy with his talent. But when everything that he catches is underneath, when he’s not breaking off chunk yardage and big plays, he needs volume to be able to rank up those numbers. His targets this season: 6-8-5-5.
The one caveat here is that the Pittsburgh wide receivers are somewhat banged up and Diontae Johnson may not play on Sunday. But even so, Chase Claypool looks to be what Juju was two years ago. I’ll be on the under here even if Johnson is out.
DJ MOORE: Under 4.5 catches and 56.5 yards
Robby Anderson is the WR1 in Carolina. He’s a top ten fantasy wide receiver the rest of the season. He is what we thought DJ Moore was going to be this season.
Now, here’s the thing: I think this line is going to be somewhat inflated because Moore went for 4-93-1 last week thanks to a 57-yard touchdown catch. But Moore’s usage is way down. His target-share the last three weeks was 14%, 17% and 14%. He had 22 total targets the first two weeks. He’s had 15 the last three weeks combined. It’s time to sell high against a Bears team that should be able to control the ball with their running game.
NFL WEEK 6 PROP BETS: FOUR MORE TO CHEW ON
- MATT RYAN: Under 289.5 passing yards
The Falcons stink, they just fired their head coach, Julio Jones is still banged up and the Vikings have been playing better defensively in the last couple of weeks.
- RAHEEM MOSTERT: Over 67.5 rushing yards
Mostert finishing with just 11 carries last week against the Dolphins, but he still surpassed 100 total yards. He has looked like he is the verge of taking over the 49ers backfield; he had 14 touches last week, coming off of an injury, while Jerrick McKinnon had just three.
- ALEXANDER MATTISON: Over 81.5 rushing yards
If Dalvin Cook is ruled out the juice on this line may get to the point that it isn’t worth taking, so keep an eye on that, but until Cook is ruled out, there will be value on Mattison.
- MATT STAFFORD: Over 285.5 passing yards
QB performance tends to correlate. When one QB has a great day, his opponent is more likely to have a great day. When one team scores a lot of points, the other had to score a lot of points to keep up. Makes sense, I guess. The Jaguars are very bad defensively, but Gardiner Minshew can put up points and the total in this game is 54.5. Let’s get weird!