A third of the 2020 NFL season is in the books, and now that the NFL Week 6 odds are live on BetRivers.com, what we know and what we don’t know has never been more important.
Rob Dauster is here to break down the NFL Week 6 odds and point out the bets that are intriguing to him. He runs through the games he likes and the teasers you should think about.
NFL WEEK 6 ODDS: WEEKEND PREVIEW
Dave Tuchman has joined the team here at BetRivers.com, and he’s the best in the business when it comes to breaking down the NFL.
He has you covered for Week 6 if you’re looking to bet on Steelers-Browns, Ravens-Eagles, Bears-Panthers, Giants-Football Team or Dolphins-Jets. (If you don’t fade the Jets we can’t be friends. Sorry, it’s just the truth.)
But Tuck also happened to miss my two favorite early lines on Sunday’s slate.
So I got you covered.
Bengals (1-4) at Colts (3-2). 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Colts -360, Bengals +300
Spread: Colts -7.5
Over/Under: 46.5 points
Implied Score: Colts 27.25, Bengals 19.25
I think it’s safe to say that Week 5 did not go well for either the Colts or the Bengals. Indianapolis gets dropped by the Browns right as I was starting to buy them as a potential AFC contender, while the Bengals went full Bungles and lost 27-3 to the Ravens.
Rough, I know.
Now, the Bengals are bad. It is what it is. Joe Burrow is going to be fun one day, but he’s not there yet. Specifically, they have a terrible offensive, and Burrow seems to spend the majority of his Sundays trying to avoid getting hit like this again:
Prior to Sunday’s loss to the Browns, the Colts actually had the NFL’s best defense DVOA. Their strength is on the defensive line, and while the Browns won that matchup last week, I cannot imagine the same thing happening this week.
This feels like a prime buy-low spot on Indy, especially if you believe that the 4-1 Browns are not a fluke. Get your bet in before the line moves again.
Packers (4-0) at Buccaneers (3-2). 4:25 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Packers -108, Buccaneers -105
Spread: Packers -1
Over/Under: 55 points
Implied Score: Packers 27.5, Buccaneers 26.75
Here are a couple of nuggets for you to chew on:
- Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL at covering. He’s 113-78-5 against the spread in his career. That’s pretty good.
- Rodgers is 4-0 against the spread this season, as the Packers have come out of the gates looking very much like the best team in the NFC. Rodgers has a point to prove about something.
- As a starter, Rodgers is 8-2-1 against the spread coming off of a bye. The Packers, I should note, are coming off of a bye, which means that they are likely going to get Davante Adams back this week. Adams had been dealing with an injured hamstring and tweeted out prior to Week 4’s win that he was ready and able to play.
So Rodgers is angry. He’s put up at least 30 points in every game this season. He’s one of the favorites to win MVP this year, and he’s now getting back his most dangerous receiving weapon.
Should I mention the line is moving the other way? It opened at Packers (-1.5) and now sits at (-1). I’m going to hold off on firing to see if I can get any more juice on the Moneyline.
CAN’T MISS TEASER OF THE WEEK
Teasers, for those that don’t know, are when you parlay at least two betting lines with a six-point adjustment in your favor. If one team is favored by 10 points, you would tease the line down to (-4). If another team is a four-point dog, you would tease that line up to (+10).
As always, when I write about teasers, I feel the need to educate people on how to bet a teaser. Make sure that you move the line through two key numbers — either 3 and 7 or 7 and 10 — and never tease through zero.
There’s a lot of math involved in that, but just trust me.
This week, I’ll be teasing the Ravens from (-7.5) down to (-1.5) and the Bears up from (+1.5) to (+7.5).
The logic on the former is simple: The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL and the Eagles are not. I could talk about how I had never heard of any of Philly’s receivers entering the season or the fact that I don’t trust Carson Wentz against the pressure that the Ravens will bring, but that’s getting complicated.
The Ravens are good. The Eagles are not. Let’s leave it at that.
I also like teasing the Bears up. I do believe the Panthers are somewhat inflated at this point in the season, and while I’m not fully buying Chicago’s 4-1 record, I do think this is a good spot for them. They’re coming off of games against the two best defenses in the NFL DVOA in the Colts and the Buccaneers. They couldn’t move the ball on the ground at all against either of them. The Panthers are 28th in DVOA, 31st in yards per rushing attempt and 31st in pressure rate.
I’m expecting a low-scoring game as it is, but combine that with the fact that I think Chicago will finally be able to move the ball and establish some semblance of a running game, and I think the Bears will be able to keep this within one score, if not win outright.
(Odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 15. All times ET)
MORE: How to Bet on Football