The NFL Week 6 odds are up on BetRivers.com and it’s good to be back! I never actually went anywhere. Did you go somewhere?
Never mind, we’ve missed some valuable making money time. It’s already Week 6. Let’s get to it.
2020 has turned everything upside down and that’s certainly true with regards to sports betting, and especially true for the 2020 NFL Season. For example, home teams are 35-42 ATS through week 5. Traditionally, home teams are given 3 points.
But if home-field advantage isn’t an advantage this season, then those 3 points represent an opportunity for us. I do think the handicappers have wised up to this, but could we make the argument that playing on the road, away from distractions could be a benefit? Hard to know and nearly impossible to quantify with such a short sample size, but the way I’ve made money over the years betting on sports has always been to find value. Look for people overreacting. Even if it’s as simple as realizing that teams don’t have an advantage by playing at home.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at our first game.
NFL WEEK 6 ODDS: TUCK’S TAKE
Washington (1-4) at Giants (0-5). 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Giants -141, Washington +125
Spread: Giants -2.5
Over/Under: 43 points
Really, the only reason to watch this game is if you have Terry McLaurin on your fantasy team or if you bet on it. I don’t have any shares of Mr. McLaurin so….
The NY Giants are -3.5 in this game and I can’t understand why. This is a case of the double overreaction – I love those as they represent incredible value. Between the Giants being home and covering last week vs Dallas, there’s a whiff of, hey maybe the NY Giants aren’t as awful as we think, in the air. Don’t believe it.
Now, don’t get me wrong, Washington is not a good team, but regardless of who is under center, they still have the best offensive player on the field in McLaurin and the most talented defensive player on the field in Chase Young. On a neutral field this feels like a pick’em, but 3.5? Woah! This represents some amazing value. Back up the truck!
Click here for the full list of Washington-Giants Odds.
Ravens (4-1) at Eagles (1-3-1). 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Ravens -345, Eagles +290
Spread: Ravens -7.5
Over/Under: 47.5 points
Philadelphia “hosts” Baltimore this week.
Coming off a seven sack performance last week, Baltimore’s pass rushers are licking their chops facing a Philadelphia offense that has been inconsistent at best.
Week after week, it’s been a litany of issues for Carson Wentz and the Eagle’s offense. Whether it’s being sacked eight times or throwing untimely interceptions, there’s always an issue. Last week against Pittsburgh, Wentz was actually quite effective under pressure (4 for 6 47 yards, 1 TD), but when given time he was abysmal (55.2% completion rate).
The Eagles did show some life with Miles Sanders long TD run and the standout play from Travis Fulgham.
Despite that, Philly still lost by nine.
This week, they face a well-coached Ravens squad that isn’t getting the elite play they expect from their pre-season MVP candidate, Lamar Jackson. That offense isn’t clicking even remotely like they were last season and for that reason, I’m a bit down on them. Baltimore just doesn’t have the weapons to dominate if Lamar Jackson isn’t at his best.
I’m going to sound like a broken record, but as long as the handicappers continue to give points to the home team, I’m going to look to exploit it. Neutral field, I have Baltimore as a 9.5 point favorite. They’re giving 7.5 points on the “road” … ‘nuff said.
I have a slight lean on the total (47.5) in this game. I’m not expecting Miles Sanders to break 74-yard TD runs each week. I’m also not expecting Mr. Fulgham to sneak up on Baltimore. I’ve referenced Lamar Jackson’s less than stellar play and while it seems crazy to ever bet the UNDER in 2020, I think that’s the play.
Betting the under in 2020 is akin to lighting your money on fire, (44 of 77 games have gone over) but I do think the handicappers have made the adjustment, maybe even a slight over adjustment. The total should be closer to 45.
Click here for the full list of Eagles-Ravens Odds.
Browns (4-1) at Steelers (4-0). 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Steelers -190, Browns +163
Spread: Steelers -3.5
Over/Under: 51 points
Traditionally, even when Cleveland has been awful, they’ve given Pittsburgh all they can handle. What happens when it’s a battle for the lead in the NFC North. Unfortunately for Cleveland fans, we don’t have much data on this.
Baker Mayfield and the Browns have something going on in Cleveland. After a disastrous opener against Baltimore, Mayfield & Co. have put up 35, 34, 49 and 32 points. Now, you might be thinking, c’mon Tuck, that was against Cincy, Washington and Dallas… and I’ll say you’re right. Last week though, was a real test against a stout Colts’ defense and, even without Nick Chubb, Mayfield answered the call.
Meanwhile in Pittsburgh, the Steelers once against hit with a late-round wide receiver, with Chase Claypool being the latest revelation. Pittsburgh is deep on offense and almost unstoppable if they can stay healthy (a big if when it comes to Ben) … They have yet to score less than 26 points.
If pushed to pick a team, I’ll take Cleveland +3.5, but full disclosure, I’m not betting on it.
Where I see value is the over/under total (which is 51) We just discussed these offenses and despite the fact we’ve seen way too many 9-6 Browns/Steelers games in the past, this one won’t disappoint. My total in this game is 54.5 and while I’m definitely betting the over, I might also bet on an even higher number going OVER to get better odds.
Click here for the full list of Steelers-Browns Odds.
Bears (4-1) at Panthers (3-2). 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Panthers -141, Bears +125
Spread: Panthers -2.5
Over/Under: 45 points
Normally, you don’t change your starting QB if you’re winning games, which is why it’s somewhat strange to see the Bears at 4-1. What’s even more strange is that Chicago’s offense is statistically worse with Foles under center. They are averaging half a yard less per play.
Truth be told, this Bears’ offense is no better than what we’ve seen in recent years regardless of who’s under center. What I’m getting at is, despite an excellent roster, Chicago’s QB is going to limit their overall success and I don’t think their 4-1 record is indicative of this team or where they will be when January rolls around
I say this because I’ve heard some chatter about how the Bears are a steal this week getting 2.5 points. Are they?
They face a Carolina defense that is overachieving and an offense that, even without Christian McCaffrey, has lots of weapons at Teddy Bridgewater’s disposal.
That said, I think this is a tough matchup for Carolina. When healthy, Khalil Mack is as good as it gets. Tom Brady is still rolling his eyes…
In what I don’t think will be a high-scoring affair, The line is currently 2.5 with a slight lean toward 3. If I can get Chicago +3 (and lines bounce around so keep checking), I’d be all over that like butter on a biscuit. Even so, I’m taking Chicago this week.
Click here for the full list of Bears-Panthers Odds.
Jets (0-5) at Dolphins (1-3). 4:05 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Dolphins -400, Jets +330
Spread: Dolphins -9.5
Over/Under: 47.5 points
This writeup should be quite short. Adam Gase is still the coach, right? Bet against the Jets.
It really is that simple. This is a Jets team that knows they’re playing for a lame-duck coach. Rumors were that Gase had lost the locker room before Week 1.
You might be thinking 8 points is a lot, but take a look at Adam Gase’s career. Losing by double digits is like a walk in the park for him.
In addition, the Dolphins have played very well thus far. If the prospect of giving 8 points scares you and you’re into teases, this is a good teaser leg to -2.
Click here for the full list of Dolphins-Jets Odds.
And so, to review, here is my TUCK’S TAKE for the NFL Week 6 Odds:
- Washington +3.5
- Baltimore – 7.5
- Baltimore/Philly UNDER 47.5
- Cleveland/Pittsburgh OVER 51
- Chicago +2.5 (if you can get 3 back up the truck)
- Miami – 8
- Tease Baltimore to -1.5 AND Miami to -2