It’s time to make our NFL Week 4 picks, and as the 2021 NFL season reaches the quarterpole, there is still much to learn about several of the top teams in the league. The Chiefs enter Week 4 with a losing record, but most can agree Kansas City is much better than their record indicates. The Eagles, Kansas City’s Week 4 opponent, is also 1-2, and very well could be 2-1. The Bills and Browns, the Chiefs’ main competition for the best tema in the AFC, look good, but not perfect. Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview his Week c NFL picks and drops knowledge on the best bets worth a wager. Increase your chance to win after reviewing the news and bet on NFL at BetRivers.
Back in the win column on Thursday with a 2-0 night – feels good to start week four with a profit, but we try to keep a level head. There will be ups and downs…that is inevitable.
19-17 on the season as we look ahead to Sunday’s matchups and our NFL Week 4 picks.
NFL WEEK 4 PICKS:
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-2) vs. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-2)
MONEYLINE: Chiefs -315 ML, Eagles +265 ML
SPREAD: Chiefs -7
OVER/UNDER: 54 points
EAGLES vs. CHIEFS TRENDS
Chiefs ML: 97% handle, 96% bets
Chiefs Spread: 94% handle, 93% bets
Over: 52% handle, 63% bets
This line opened up lower, but despite the fact that the Chiefs have only covered the spread in one of their last 14 games, the money poured in on Kansas City. You read that correctly. The Chiefs are 1-11-2 ATS over their last 14. And yet, the public can’t wait to put their money on them.
That tells me that the Chiefs aren’t quite as good as the public perceives. It’s not shocking. Joe Public loves to be on the guy they know and everyone knows Patrick Mahomes. You feel stupid betting against a player as talented as Mahomes. The fact of the matter is that while the Chiefs are 10-4 over that 14 game stretch, they haven’t dominated like the market thought they would.
Last week, I made the rookie mistake of betting on a big road favorite – what was I thinking?!? That’s the stuff sharps make a killing on and I fell for it. The Chiefs haven’t run the ball well, and aren’t particularly good against the pass. Don’t for a second think I’m telling you the Chiefs are a bad team – They are still the favorites to represent the AFC in the championship. But, they aren’t as good as people think.
Philadelphia is playing on a short week, which I don’t love, but Jalen Hurts plays a similar game to Lamar Jackson which I think bodes well for the Eagles. They’ll be able to keep this game close.
Using the alternate lines over at Betrivers.com, I can get the Eagles +7.5. Home dogs getting more than a TD – sign me up.
The Pick: Eagles +7.5
BUFFALO BILLS (2-1) vs. HOUSTON TEXANS (1-2)
MONEYLINE: Bills -1115 ML, Texas +800 ML
SPREAD: Bills -17
OVER/UNDER: 47 points
BILLS vs. TEXANS PUBLIC TRENDS:
Bills ML: 98% handle, 92% bets
Bills Spread: 74% handle, 70% bets
Over: 73% handle, 79% bets
Generally speaking, you won’t see much sharp money giving more than two touchdowns in a game which takes us to Buffalo.
Josh Allen and the Bills got their offense back on track last week vs Washington. And now they play the hapless Texans who are still without their starting QB (Tyrod Taylor – hamstring)
The Bills have a plethora of weapons and Houston has no answer for them. Josh Allen and company will have no trouble scoring heaps on Sunday. So, the question is; Can backup QB, 3rd round draft pick, Davis Mills keep up? Not only do I doubt that he can keep up, I think that when he tries, this could get ugly. I’m thinking multiple interceptions, with at least one pick-six.
Buffalo is going to maul the Texans on Sunday.
The Pick: Bills -16.5
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-2) vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-1)
MONEYLINE: Browns -124 ML, Vikings +100 ML
SPREAD: Browns -2
OVER/UNDER: 51.5 points
VIKINGS vs. BROWNS PUBLIC TRENDS:
Browns ML: 71% handle, 60% bets
Browns Spread: 64% handle, 60% bets
Over: 21% handle, 63% bets
Before the season started, I thought the Vikings would disappoint. They’re 1-2, but 2-1 against the spread. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense has looked great, but they seem to find a way to lose. Two losses by a combined four points.
As for Cleveland, the Browns are 2-1 and boast one of the better pass rushes in the league. Both these teams can score – the total is indicative of that. I think the Browns’ defensive depth and pass rush is the deciding factor.
The Pick: Browns ML (-122) and OVER 51
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-1) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (0-3)
MONEYLINE: Saints -335 ML, Giants +280 ML
SPREAD: Saints -7
OVER/UNDER: 41.5 points
SAINTS vs. GIANTS PUBLIC TRENDS:
Saints ML: 92% handle, 86% bets
Saints Spread: 66% handle, 74% bets
Over: 40% handle, 71% bets
The winless Giants travel to New Orleans. The Saints return home to play in front of their home crowd for the first time since being displaced due to Hurricane Ida. Hard to imagine the Saints won’t be up for this game.
The NY Giants are 12-5 ATS on the road over their last 17. I actually liked the Giants +8.5 earlier in the week, but now that the line has moved down to 7, I’m staying away.
All that said, I do think the Saints should control the game and ultimately get the win. Hence, the game script should favor New Orleans running the ball a bunch in the 2nd half.
When the Saints run the clock out, they often turn to Tony Jones … I’m still waiting for the official line at Betrivers.com, but assuming it’ll be 23.5 (give or take a half a yard), I’ll be betting the OVER. My projections have Jones getting around 28 yards so keep that in mind when betting.
End of the day, favorable game scripts should benefit Tony Jones and Sunday’s game vs the Giants should be just that.
The Pick: Tony Jones OVER rushing/receiving total (provided you can get it at 24.5 or lower)