Chargers-Raiders Week 4 odds

The fourth week of the 2021 NFL regular season wraps up on Monday with what should be a high-octane matchup, and is here to preview the Chargers-Raiders Week 4 odds and picks for Monday Night Football.  The Raiders have been one of the biggest surprises of the season, thanks to a 3-0 start with hard-fought wins over the Ravens, Steelers, and Dolphins. Although it’s been a great start for Las Vegas, the injury status of running back Josh Jacobs remains a gametime decision, which could mean a heavy dose of Peyton Barber. The journeyman RB had an excellent showing in Week 3 against the Dolphins but faces a much stronger Chargers’ front-seven.

The Chargers enter Monday Night Football with a 2-1 record thanks to wins over Washington and the Chiefs, with a close loss to the Cowboys in between. Be sure to check for the latest Chargers-Raiders Week 4 odds, and Bet on NFL and be the first to win. 

Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview the Chargers-Raiders Week 4 odds and provides his analysis on the best bets worth a wager.

We nailed the Buffalo game, but lost a couple of others to bring us to 21-20 on the season.

Approximately eight years ago or so, Sam Monson from Pro Football Focus said that Tom Brady was nearing the end. I’m paraphrasing here, but he essentially said that Brady can no longer throw the deep ball and he’s a middling/declining QB. Having worked with PFF and Sam, I’m a huge fan of what they do over there and because of his opinion, I made a Tom Brady bet with a buddy of mine. 

The bet was simple. Brady had to play well (we laid out some basic metrics to quantify what “well” meant) for the next five years. I lost that bet. In fact, Tom Brady has been costing me money for the last twenty years. 

And last night, he cost me again. I naively bought into the hype and when the spread dipped to -6.5 points, I jumped into the deep end like a fish. That didn’t go well either. 

I tell you this because I will never bet on or against Tom again. I can’t do it. I’m not going to tell you not to, but I won’t because it never ends well for me. With that, let’s turn our attention to Monday Night Football and break down the Chargers-Raiders Week 4 odds.


MONEYLINE: Chargers -165 ML, Raiders +145 ML
SPREAD: Chargers -3
OVER/UNDER: 51.5 points

Chargers ML: 60% handle, 55% bets
Chargers Spread: 55% handle, 53% bets
Over: 65% handle, 72% bets

Las Vegas and Derek Carr are still underrated by the market. I was guilty of looking past Carr’s development as a passer. Carr is doing a great job of finding his playmakers and getting the ball in their hands. When discussing the best QBs in the league, Derek Carr is not someone people usually bring up, but he’s playing great and frankly deserves to be in the conversation (for now)

In addition, the Raiders pass rush has been far better than the experts expected. 

The line opened at 4, but quickly moved to 3.5 and then even 3. At 3.5, I’m inclined to take Las Vegas and the points. At 3, I think there’s more value on the moneyline. It’s worth mentioning that while the Raiders are on the road in this one, they’re likely to have more fans in the stands. The love for the Raiders in LA is strong. 

The Pick: Raiders +3.5 or Raiders ML (+145)


Keenan Allen OVER 6.5 receptions
– Per PFF, “While the Raiders currently rank first among all teams in team coverage grade against wide receivers, they also rank 22nd in completion percentage allowed to wide receivers.” …. Couple this with Keenan Allen’s unique ability to separate and I am predicting Allen easily surpasses 6.5 receptions.

Justin Herbert OVER 1.5 TD passes
– You’ll need to pay a little bit of juice to get this, but barring injury, it’s free money. With the total at 51.5, the Chargers implied total is 27. That bodes very well for Herbert and their passing game.