The weekend is almost here and the NFL Week 10 odds are mighty interesting thanks to a heavy dose of late games and just two games featuring teams with winning records. In Week 9, bettors who backed the public sides hit on over 80% of wagers. But Week 10 might be a perfect time to fade the public.
Rob Dauster is here to break down the Week 10 NFL odds and point out the bets that are intriguing to him. He runs through the games he likes and the teasers you should think about.
MORE: Week 10 NFL Picks
WEEK 10 NFL ODDS: WEEKEND PREVIEW
Week 10 NFL Odds: 49ers (4-5) at Saints (6-2). 4:25 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Saints -420, 49ers +350
Spread: Saints -9.5
Over/Under: 49 points
Implied Score: Saints 29, 49ers 20
Click here for the full list of 49ers-Saints odds.
When it comes to sports betting, the first thing that I always do is look for spots where I’ll be able to buy a team low or sell a team high. What I mean by that is finding games where a team that I think is good has a dismal performance one week and is looking to bounce back or a spot where a team played their best game and will be coming back to earth.
The sweet spot is when you find a spot where you can buy one team low while selling the other team high.
Enter the 49ers vs. the Saints.
The Saints are coming off of a game where they absolutely embarrassed a Tampa Bay team that I thought had a chance to get to the Super Bowl. (Whoops.) The final score was 38-3, which looks an awful lot like what the final score of the 49ers loss to the Packers would have been on Thursday Night Football last week … if the Niners hadn’t scored two late touchdowns and back-doored their way into an over and a 34-17 loss.
It’s not lost on me that both of those games were played in primetime, either. Everyone saw the beatdowns happen in real-time.
The Saints played on Monday night, which means that the 49ers not only have four more days of rest and time to prepare, but they also had a week and a half to get healthy and COVID-free. Nick Mullens is hardly the worst back-up quarterback in the world. With Kendrick Bourne back, Richie James freed and Jordan Reed a part of the game-plan, the Niners should be able to move the ball.
And here’s the other thing: San Francisco’s issue defensively is big plays through the passing game. They aren’t bad against the run, and they have a good linebacking corps. They can deal with the dinks and dunks and passes to Alvin Kamara in the flat since Drew Brees isn’t airing the ball out 60 yards down the field.
Throw in the fact that this is going to be a low-scoring game between two teams that play a slow place and drain the clock, and those nine points are too many.
Week 10 NFL Odds: Buccaneers (6-3) at Panthers (3-6). 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Buccaneers -240, Panthers +205
Spread: Buccaneers -6
Over/Under: 50.5 points
Implied Score: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 22.5
Click here for the full list of Buccaneers-Panthers odds.
If I like the 49ers in a bounce-back spot, then I should probably like the team that the Saints blew out in a bounceback spot as well, right?
This really does feel like Week 2 all over again, doesn’t it? The Bucs are coming off of a pretty tepid performance against the Saints and squaring off with a Panthers team that impressed the week before.
There are a lot of factors at play here, but these are the two things that I think are the most important:
- Christian McCaffery is banged up again. It’s looking like he won’t be back until Week 11. CMC is, according to highly-placed sources within the Carolina Panther franchise, good at football.
- The Panthers cannot get pressure on the quarterback. They tend to sit back in a zone. Tom Brady is going to be able to sit in the pocket and pick apart that zone the same way that I pick apart chicken wings while watching football on Sundays.
Week 10 NFL Odds: Jaguars (1-7) at Packers (6-2). 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Packers -835, Jaguars +600
Spread: Packers -13.5
Over/Under: 49.5 points
Implied Score: Packers 31.5, Jaguars 18.5.
Click here for the full list of Jaguars-Packers odds.
This stat is courtesy of Matthew Freedman of The Action Network: Aaron Rodgers has one just one season in his career where he had a losing record against the spread at Lambeau Field.
His first season as a starter.
On Sunday, he gets the Jaguars in Lambeau. The Jaguars, if you haven’t heard yet, are just atrocious. I could give you stats and numbers and records, but I think we all know this. The Jaguars are terrible.
And here’s the best part: the line is coming down. When I looked at this on Wednesday night, it was (-13.5). Today, it’s (-13). So the play may actually be to wait to see how low it drops. Regardless of where it ends up, I want to be on the side of Aaron Rodgers. Can I still make Discount Double-Check jokes? Because if I can, insert one right here.
MORE: How to Bet on Football