The NFL Week 10 odds are up at BetRivers.com and with just seven weeks remaining before the start of the playoffs, teams — and bookmakers — are tightening things up.
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Longtime broadcaster and gambling expert David Tuchman is here every week to preview the NFL odds and break down the picks he is thinking about.
Before we dive into the NFL Week 10 odds and Tuck’s picks, click here to read our weekend recap of how Week 9 went.
Week 9 was a rough one, going 2-3. That brings our season total to respectful, albeit fairly unimpressive 13-11-1
There are lots of games we like this week, lots of teasers, and an over if the number comes in.
First off, what is a teaser? Very simple answer. A teaser is a type of sports bet that allows you to adjust the point spread on multiple games, but requires you to win every game to cash the bet. The most common teaser in sports betting is a 6-point football teaser, in which you have to pick two games correctly but get six additional points on each line.
As for strategy, Stanford Wong wrote a book called Sharp Sports Betting in 2009. In it, he discusses the math behind sports betting. Wong talks about how the best possible teaser takes a team through the seven and the three, both key numbers. Favorites get teased down, underdogs up. Simple enough, right?
By teasing across three and seven, the teaser covers the top two outcomes, and with the extra point being moved back, the newest key number, six.
Got it? Let’s move on.
NFL WEEK 10 ODDS: TUCK’S TAKE
Seahawks (6-2) at Rams (5-3). 4:25 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Rams -120, Seahawks +105
Spread: Rams -1.5
Over/Under: 55 points
Last week I went on and on about how Russell Wilson is elite. How did he reward my praise? Four turnovers that cost me money. I’m stubborn and I am not willing to get off this wagon after one week. I’m willing to bet on Russell Wilson not being bad two weeks in a row.
The Rams are coming off a bye and so rather than bet on Seattle straight up in this huge divisional game, we’ll tease the Seahawks from 2 to 8.
Click for the full list of Seahawks-Rams odds.
Colts (5-3) at Titans (6-2). 8:20 p.m. (TNF)
Moneyline: Titans -130, Colts +115
Spread: Titans -2
Over/Under: 48.5 points
Last week, I mentioned that Rivers has struggled vs top defenses the last few years. While last week’s opponent (Baltimore) certainly qualified as a top defense, Tennessee does not. Expect Rivers to have a big game. Ryan Tannehill on the other hand has been average at best as of late. I’m still a believer, but this week, against a tough Colt’s defense, might not be the week he gets out of his funk.
After losing last week, Indianapolis needs the win. They should be ready to play and at worst, keep this game close.
As an aside, keep an eye on the individual player props over at BetRivers.com. As I mentioned, I think Rivers and the Colts will be able to move the ball against this weak Titan’s defense. In all likelihood, I’ll be betting on some OVER receiving yards.
Follow me on twitter at @Tuckonsports or I’ll be on 107.5 the Fan in Indianapolis with Jason Hammer this Thursday at 7:15 pm ET to reveal some last-minute bets.
We’re going to tease Colts +2 to +8.
Click here for the full list of Colts-Titans odds.
Chargers (2-6) at Dolphins (5-3). 4:05 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Dolphins -148, Chargers +128
Spread: Dolphins -2.5
Over/Under: 48 points
It’s astounding to think the Chargers are 2-6. They are competitive in every game and seem to find a way to lose in new and imaginative ways each week. That said, their record is not indicative of the talent they have.
I was very impressed with Miami’s rookie QB, Tua. What he brings to the table and his performance last week makes the Dolphin’s decision to bench Fitzpatrick, look pretty smart. Their defense has been opportunistic as well.
In Miami, this is a tough task for the Chargers, but I think they keep it close. Keep in mind, Herbert and the Chargers have lost six games by a total of 24 points. They haven’t lost by more than 7 all season. Their overall point differential is NINE! How is this team 2-6??
I’m not sure if the Chargers take an early lead and let the Dolphins back into it or if the Dolphins take the lead and the Chargers come roaring back, but I feel fairly confident this game is close-ish. Tease the Chargers from +2.5 to +8.5.
Click here for the full list of Chargers-Dolphins Odds.
Bengals (2-6-1) at Steelers (8-0), 4:25 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Steelers -420, Bengals +325
Spread: Steelers -8.5
Over/Under: 47.5 points
Pittsburgh averted disaster last week, as they clearly looked past a depleted Dallas squad. Pittsburgh is too good to lay an egg two weeks in a row. I’m a Burrow fan, but the Steelers aren’t losing to Cincy. We’re going to tease the Steelers from -7.5 to -1.5.
COVID UPDATE: Ben Roethlisberger has been placed on the Covid list and it’s uncertain whether he’ll play or not. For obvious reasons, keep an eye on this as you consider your options. For what it’s worth, I think Pittsburgh wins the game regardless. The Pittsburgh teasers will be removed IF Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t play. Keep an eye on that situation.
Bills (7-2) at Cardinals (5-3). 4:05 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Cardinals -136, Bills +118
Spread: Cardinals -2.5
Over/Under: 56.5 points
I’m concerned about this game. My charts tell me there’s value on the Bills. My gut tells me they aren’t desperate and could come out flat after beating Seattle last week. The mathematician in me tells me to ignore my gut, but when I do that, I often lose money.
Another good opportunity to tease a dog through the all-important 3,6 and 7 numbers.
I think Arizona might pull out a win here, but I think it stays close. Tease the Bills from +2.5 to +8.5.
Click here for the full list of Bills-Cardinals odds.
Texans (2-6) at Browns (5-3). 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Browns -177, Texans +155
Spread: Browns -3.5
Over/Under: 52 points
Houston vs. Cleveland opened at 2.5 and I was planning on adding it to my teaser, but now that the line has moved to 3.5, we’ll just take the Texans.
Cleveland coming off a bye should be prepared, but the NFL is a QB-driven league and one of these teams have DeShaun Watson while the other team has Baker Mayfield. In other words, one of these teams has a really good QB. The other one does not.
In addition, while Watson struggled without his all-world receiver, Deandre Hopkins early in the season, he has seemed to find his groove with Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks. The Pick: Houston +3.5.
Click here for the full list of Texans-Browns odds.
Eagles (3-4-1) at Giants (2-7), 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Eagles -175, Giants +150
Spread: Eagles -2.5
Over/Under: 44.5 points
This line is fluctuating between 3 and 3.5. If you want to take the Giants, as I am recommending, make sure to get +3.5.
The last time these two teams played, the Giants were the better team. Now the game is in NY (which admittedly doesn’t mean much in 2020), and the Giants are getting 3.5
Again, the Eagles are probably the class of this division, but that’s by default. Every team in the NFC East is awful. My plan is to bet on the dog every time they get more than a FG. The Pick: Giants +3.
Click here for the full list of Eagles-Giants odds.
And so, to review, here is my TUCK’S TAKE for the NFL Week 10 odds:
We’re going to do a 5-team round robin teaser. If you’re not sure what that is, it’s essentially taking the five teams we want to tease, and pairing them each into two- team teaser bets. Make sense?
Teaser #1 Indianapolis and Seattle
Teaser #2 Indianapolis and Buffalo
Teaser #3 Indianapolis and Chargers
Teaser #4 Indianapolis and Pittsburgh
Teaser #5 Seattle and Buffalo
Teaser #6 Seattle and Chargers
Teaser #7 Seattle and Pittsburgh *
Teaser #8 Buffalo and Chargers
Teaser #9 Buffalo and Pittsburgh *
Teaser #10 Chargers And Pittsburgh *
NY Giants +3.5
When I do a round-robin teaser, I’ll lower my normal bet size so that I’m not overly exposed to one team. I recommend you do the same. In this case, each of my bets will only be ¼ of a normal unit.