The second week of the 2021 NFL regular season gets going on Thursday night, and with both teams coming off home losses, the Washington-Giants Week 2 odds show not much has changed in the eyes of the book despite the Week 1 losses. Washington opened -200 ML and as four-point favorites with Taylor Heinicke replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick at starting quarterback. The line has since moved to -3.5, but should stay at or north of three points.
Washington has lost seven of its last eight games as a home favorite against NFC East opponents, while the Giants have covered the spread in each of their last 11 road games against NFC opponents.
Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview the Washington-Giants Week 2 odds and drops knowledge on the best bets worth a wager.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Washington-Giants Week 2 Odds
Finding value as we head into week two of the NFL betting Illinois season becomes more difficult as the inaccuracies in the market correct themselves.
RELATED: NFC EAST BETTING PREVIEW
NEW YORK GIANTS (0-1) at WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (0-1)
DATE/TIME: Thursday, Sept. 16 8:20 p.m.
CHANNEL: NFL Network
MONEYLINE: Washington -167 ML, Giants +145 ML
SPREAD: Washington -3.5
OVER/UNDER: 40.5 points
The NY Giants have won five straight against Washington which is surprising because the Giants haven’t been that good and Washington hasn’t been that bad. Nonetheless, New York is looking for their sixth straight victory against their division rival.
WASHINGTON-GIANTS PUBLIC TRENDS:
WFT Moneyline: 63% handle, 60% bets
WFT Spread: 45% handle, 51% bets
Over: 44% handle, 51 % bets
The narrative I suggested last week played out for the Giants as Daniel Jones, a less than 100% Saquon Barkley and a mediocre-to-poor offensive line couldn’t move the ball effectively against a stout Denver defense.
The Giants offense will be challenged by another top defense this week in Washington. Chase Young was held without a sack last week by the Chargers, but I expect him to get acquainted with Daniel Jones this week. Young and Montez Sweat should be able to disrupt New York’s offense all game long. Couple that with former Giant, Landon Collins looking like his old self and this could be a long day for the Giants offense.
I had faith in Denver’s offense to be able to move the ball last week against the Giants defense. That’s the question this week. Can Washington’s offense move the ball? Ryan Fitzpatrick is out for Washington. Taylor Heinicke is under center this week (and for the foreseeable future) Washington likes Heinicke and they have weapons around him, but on a short week, will he be effective?
Who is Taylor Heinicke? He’s been around the league for a while. He’s 28 years old. He played a bit last season and had a strong performance in a losing playoff effort against the eventual champion, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He knows the offense so the short week shouldn’t affect him too much.
Heinicke and Washington should be able to match the firepower that Teddy Bridgewater and Denver have. And so, once again this comes down to the Giant’s offense which I think is pretty abysmal. As I mentioned last week, I believe this is the Daniel Jones farewell tour. The Giants will almost undoubtedly draft a QB in the top 3 of next year’s draft.
On the road, no need to give more than a FG. Bet on Chase Young and Washington to win the game.
The Pick: Washington ML (-177)
As for props, recency bias provides us with a great opportunity. In Week one, Taylor Heinicke only completed 11 passes. In fact, he and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined for only 14 completions on 21 attempts. If you look under the hood, you’ll notice that Washington only had 47 plays on offense which is abnormally low. They averaged about 66 per game last season.
If Washington gets more plays on offense (which is very likely) they’ll pass more and If you look at Taylor Heinicke’s recent history under center he’s completing passes at a 65% clip. In addition, running back J.D. McKissic went without a catch last week. That’s not likely to happen again (he caught 80 balls last season) – McKissic represents low variance/somewhat simple completions.
All this adds up to us betting Taylor Heinicke OVER 22 pass completions.
Despite Daniel Jones and the Giant’s offensive woes, Sterling Shepherd is someone we can count on. When Jones is under center, Shepherd gets his targets and as long as he’s getting his targets he’s going to catch 5-7 balls a game. Giants’ TE, Evan Engram is out again on Thursday which just makes this bet even more appealing. Bet Sterling Shepherd OVER 4.5 receptions.
One more bet this week and it’s Chase Young. As I mentioned earlier, Young was held without a sack last week. The Giant’s offensive line has their issues – Young gets his first of the season on Thursday night. I’m taking Chase Young OVER 0.5 sacks.