NFL Week 1 Picks

The 2021 NFL regular season kicked off on Thursday, but with Sunday finally, here, football feels like it’s back, and that means it’s time to run through our NFL Week 1 picks. BetRivers has a wide variety of Week 1 game lines, odds, props, teasers, and much much more. Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview his Week 1 NFL picks and drops knowledge on the best bets worth a wager. Increase your chance to win after reviewing the news and bet on NFL at BetRivers.

Early in the NFL season is where I tend to think you’ll find more value. I try to find as many spots in weeks one and two as I can. Looking ahead to this Sunday’s games, here are the NFL Week 1 picks I like.

CAROLINA PANTHERS vs. NEW YORK JETS ODDS

MONEYLINE: Panthers -200 ML, Jets +170 ML
SPREAD: Panthers -4.5
OVER/UNDER: 44

PANTHERS vs. JETS PUBLIC TRENDS
Panthers ML: 92% handle, 80% bets
Panthers Spread: 72% handle, 67% bets
Over: 78% handle, 61% bets

A very intriguing match-up as the Jets face off against their old starter in Sam Darnold. Darnold has weapons and a year away from Adam Gase should help. Couple that with a healthy Christian McCaffrey and you’re probably thinking I’m on Carolina this Sunday.

I have my questions about Carolina’s left side of their offensive line though and there is an air of optimism around the Jets this season – at least so far. New head coach, Robert Saleh, and second overall pick, QB, Zach Wilson has the fans and the team believing. Hope can be a beautiful thing. 

I tend to think Carolina is a bit overrated at this point – After watching Darnold play the last couple of seasons, I’ll believe he’s the answer when I see it. As for the Jets, I’m buying in. 

In Carolina, this line should be closer to a FG. 

The Pick: New York Jets +4.5 

NEW YORK GIANTS vs. DENVER BRONCOS ODDS

MONEYLINE: Giants +130 ML, Broncos -155 ML
SPREAD: Broncos -3
OVER/UNDER: 41.5

GIANTS vs. BRONCOS PUBLIC TRENDS:
Broncos ML: 74% handle, 62% bets
Broncos SPREAD: 70% handle, 61% bets
Over: 45% handle, 58% bets

If you watched any of my videos where I discussed futures I was betting on, you’ll know I’m bullish on Denver. Von Miller is back in the mix and pairing him with Bradley Chubb will wreak havoc against many offenses this season. They present a huge mismatch against the Giants’ weak offensive line. 

I’m also a fan of Denver’s secondary and when it comes down to it, I think Denver’s defense has a chance to be one of the best in the league. 

As for their offense, Denver has talent and depth. The biggest question mark is under center. Teddy Bridgewater was abysmal in Carolina last season. He’s an accurate passer, but has his limitations. For me, this pick is about the mismatch of Denver’s defense vs a Daniel Jones-led Giant’s offense. 

The Giants have injury (and talent) issues and don’t have the defense to take pressure off their offense. 

I believe this will be the last season of the Daniel Jones experiment and I think the whispers start to get louder after Sunday’s game. 

The Pick: Denver Broncos -3 

DETROIT LIONS vs. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS ODDS

MONEYLINE: Lions -290 ML, 49ers -360 ML
SPREAD: 49ers -8
OVER/UNDER: 45

LIONS vs. 49ERS PUBLIC TRENDS:
49ers ML: 94% handle, 91% bets
49ers Spread: 86% handle, 78% bets
Over: 65% handle, 61% bets

Jimmy Garoppolo is back under center and has all of his weapons at his disposal. Couple that with one of the better offensive lines in all of football and I think the 49ers score at will vs the Detroit Lions. 

Detroit has one of, if not the worst, defenses in the league. I give them very little chance to slow down the 49ers run game and once that’s clicking, Garoppolo should be able to do some damage in the air. 

San Francisco will score early and often in this game and that game script will force Jared Goff and company to play catch-up. Translation: Lots of points… 

The Pick: OVER 45 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS ODDS

MONEYLINE: Patriots -180 ML, Dolphins +155 ML
SPREAD: Patriots -3.5
OVER/UNDER: 43

PATRIOTS vs. DOLPHINS PUBLIC TRENDS
Patriots ML: 74% handle, 50% bets
Patriots Spread: 51% handle, 54% bets
Over: 21% handle, 51% bets

The Mac Jones era officially starts this Sunday in New England. I’m not a fan of betting on rookie QBs when they’re favored by more than three points unless they are playing someone awful.

The Miami Dolphins are far from awful. Take Tua and the ‘Fins!

The Pick: Miami Dolphins +3.5