Super Bowl 2021 Betting Updates: Chiefs-Buccaneers Predictions
Super Bowl LV is fast-approaching and as the big game comes into view, analysis and opinion turn into projection, which is why it’s time to talk about Chiefs-Buccaneers predictions. Pennsylvania online sports betting is live right now and ready to guide you on this journey.
There is a lot to go over from a betting standpoint in advance of the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is why David Tuchman is here: To provide daily Super Bowl 2021 betting updates leading to Super Bowl LV on Sunday, February 7. With the big game fast approaching, it’s finally time for Tuck to provide his Chiefs-Buccaneers predictions.
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The big game is hours away and it’s been poked and probed and overanalyzed, all leading up to us making our Chiefs-Buccaneers predictions for Super Bowl LV.
- No team has repeated as champions since the 2004 Patriots. It’s more than a bit interesting that the Chiefs will have to go through Tom Brady to get it done.
- Bruce Arians-coached teams are .500 against the spread coming off a bye. This includes his tenure with Arizona.
- Andy Reid-coached teams cover the spread roughly 66 percent of the time. This covers his tenure with Philadelphia and Kansas City.
For coaching, I think the Chiefs have the edge. While both coaches are traditionally more conservative, Reid has, in recent years, opened up and been willing to take more risks
The underlying stats suggest that Tampa Bay was a better team than their 11-5 record while those same stats suggest Kansas City wasn’t as good as their 14-2 record.
But having said that, and while I do agree that the Buccaneers are better (than their record), I think we need to look under the hood and examine the Chiefs more to determine just how good this team is.
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Fourth Quarter Problems
When it comes to the Chiefs, they were quite bad relatively speaking in the fourth quarter of most games. Why was this? Well, simply put, this is a team that dominated most of their opponents in the first half, so did they take their “foot off the gas”?
This isn’t something that is necessarily measured in the underlying stats, but should we account for it when analyzing the big game?
After talking to Ed Miller over at DeckPrism Sports, he suggested their model had the game at Chiefs -3, 56 total. They do good work over there and I trust them more often than not. As for where the money is going, the sharp money is going on Tampa Bay +3.5, but more of the tickets have gone on the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have been abysmal against the spread over the past 10 weeks, but keep in mind, they covered vs Buffalo and they seemed to be well on their way to covering vs Cleveland before Mahomes was injured and taken out of the game. (Lucky for me as I had Cleveland + the points.
I wrote about their Week 12 matchup in my last blog and I’m having trouble getting away from that. Kansas City absolutely dominated the game for the first three quarters before allowing Tampa Bay to get back into the game. The Buccaneers eventually lost by 3 after being down 27-7 in the third quarter.
Too Much Firepower
In last year’s big game, my money was stupidly on San Francisco and things looked good going into the fourth quarter, but we all know how that worked out. Why do I bring this up? Well, my point is the Chiefs are an extremely tough team to hold down for four quarters.
There are really no defenses that are equipped to stop Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Traditional wisdom would suggest you need to play zone defense to slow down Hill and keep him in front of you, but in their Week 12 matchup, Kelce caught all eight of his targets when playing against the zone.
I mentioned in my last blog, that the Tampa Bay pass rush was good enough to pressure Mahomes with just their front four and this is integral to their success on Sunday. Blitzing him is not advised.
As you might expect, all QBs are better when not pressured – that said, Mahomes is one of the best when under pressure.
Tom Brady, on the other hand, used to be really amazing when facing the blitz, but he’s been mediocre to bad over the last two-plus seasons. Unlike Tampa Bay, Kansas City will need to blitz to get pressure, but unlike Mahomes, Brady doesn’t respond all that well to it. He’s been fantastic in recent weeks, but he’ll need to be perfect to have a chance this Sunday.
When it comes down to it, here’s the question? Do you believe the analytics? If you do, your money is probably going on Tampa Bay. If you believe that Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team has another gear when they need it, your money is going on Kansas City.
As for me, I believe what I saw in Week 12 when these two played. I believe what I saw 12 days ago when Kansas City dominated a very good Buffalo team.
My bet is on Chiefs Moneyline. I’ve been monitoring the line all week and as you might expect it fluctuates a bunch. KC to win at -165 (ish) is the play.
As for the line (Chiefs -3) and the total (55.5 points), they seem to be properly priced so I’ll stay away, but if there’s movement, I’ll be ready as always, to jump on it.
As for my prediction, I just think the Chiefs are a much better team than the underlying data suggests. I do believe they have another gear.
Super Bowl LV Prediction: Chiefs 33, Buccaneers 23. Kansas City becomes the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowl championships since 2004 and Philadelphia fans are left wondering why they ever let Andy Reid go.