The big game is less than a week away, and as we prepare to wager on Chiefs vs. Buccaneers, our latest Super Bowl 2021 betting updates takes a look back at Week 12, when Kansas City defeated Tampa Bay, 27-24. While there is only so much we can take from a late November game, we can learn something about how to bet on the Chiefs and Buccaneers.
There is a lot to go over from a betting standpoint in advance of the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is why David Tuchman is here: To provide daily Super Bowl 2021 betting updates leading to Super Bowl LV on Sunday, February 7.
Check out our Super Bowl odds, review the stats in our sports betting guide, and then if you are looking for the best sports bets PA place your bets on BetRivers!
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If we use what happened in Week 12 to predict what will happen in Super Bowl LV, it’s difficult to paint a very optimistic picture for the Buccaneers. They were badly outplayed at home and the final score was not indicative of how that game played out.
But keep in mind, rematches often play out differently than we might expect. The Russian hockey team annihilated Team USA 10-3 at Madison Square Garden just before the start of the 1980 Olympics in Lake Placid. We all know how that rematch went.
That is certainly a bit of hyperbole, as the Chiefs are most definitely not as dominant as that Russian hockey team was, but you get my point, and let’s not forget Tampa Bay lost 38-3 to New Orleans back in week 9 before disposing of the Saints in the playoffs.
While it would be ridiculous to assume that Tampa Bay couldn’t win because they lost to this Chiefs squad a few weeks ago, we’d be remiss if we didn’t at least look at that game and try to learn something from it.
Kansas City was favored by 3.5 in the game and for those of you who bet on them, you have every reason to feel like you got robbed. The Chiefs were up 17-0 and on their way to 24-0 when a strip-sack fumble recovery by the Buccaneers got them back in the game.
The Chiefs were up 27-7 in the 3rd quarter and had three red zone trips result in a total of six points. So, it could have been worse.
The Bucs had absolutely no answer for Mahomes and that offense, specifically Tyreek Hill. I expect Tampa Bay to come in with a better game plan to contain Hill, but Andy Reid is fully aware of that and while I don’t expect Tyreek to go off for 13-269-3 again, my guess is their offense doesn’t miss a beat.
The answer to containing that explosive Chiefs offense? Tampa Bay must generate pressure with their front four. If they can’t, I think they are drawing dead. Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett combined for 15 pressures and 5 sacks in the game vs Green Bay. If they can replicate that and Tom Brady plays mistake-free football, the Bucs have a puncher’s chance.
Kansas City has some holes on defense, specifically defending tight ends. We saw Rob Gronkowski explode in week 12 (6-106), and Cameron Brate was effective in the passing game. The tight end tandem combined for 10 receptions and 140 yards. In recent weeks, we’ve seen Brate take over for Gronk in the passing game so one of my early bets this week is:
- Cameron Brate OVER 29.5 receiving yards
As for the game, Andy Reid is lethal when he has extra time to prepare, so with two weeks, I think we have to give him the edge over Bruce Arians in the coaching department.
I don’t want to say that Tampa Bay is akin to Team USA, but I do think that it’s far more likely that the Chiefs win this game than the -165 line would indicate.
Do you believe in miracles?
I have not bet on the game yet, but I’m leaning KC moneyline.
Tucks Take: (I’ll be listing all of my actual bets here)
Cameron Brate OVER 29.5 receiving yards