2021 Super Bowl LV Odds Primer: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers | How we got here
The stage is set. The Super Bowl LV odds are live on BetRivers.com and the big game is fast approaching.
There is a lot to go over from a betting standpoint in advance of the 2020 Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is why David Tuchman is here.
Read below for a betting breakdown of how Tom Brady and the Buccaneers advanced to face the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs and why the Super Bowl LV odds are the way they are.
Click here for the full list of Chiefs-Buccaneers Super Bowl LV odds.
How the Buccaneers got to Super Bowl LV
Regular Season Record: 11-5 (4-2 NFC South)
Against The Spread: 11-8, 4-1 (Last 5)
Over/Under: 11-8 (3-2 Last 5)
BUCCANEERS PLAYOFF RESULTS
Wild Card: Win vs. #4 Washington, 31-23 (Over 44.5, WFT +10)
Divisional Round: Win vs. #2 Saints, 30-20 (Under 51.5, TB +3)
NFC Championship: Win vs. #1 Packers, 31-26 (Over 53, TB +3)
Tampa Bay is quite the story. The Buccaneers were 17-31 over their last three seasons with zero playoff appearances. Then Tom Brady came to town before the start of the 2020 NFL season, and now they find themselves in the Super Bowl. But I don’t want anyone to think I’m suggesting Brady is the sole reason for their appearance in the Super Bowl because this is an immensely talented team.
That being said, without Brady, we know they aren’t here. Even without Antonio Brown to alleviate the pressure in the NFC Championship game, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin combined for 161 yards and multiple long plays down the field. Brady came into this game with only one interception in his last six games but threw three picks vs Green Bay. Brady gave Aaron Rodgers and that Green Bay offense multiple opportunities to win the game, but time and time again, the defensive front for Tampa was able to pressure Rodgers. The Green Bay signal-caller was under pressure on fifteen of his dropbacks and was sacked five times. Shaquil Barrett (3 sacks) and Jason Pierre-Paul (2 sacks) were responsible for most of the pass rush. That bodes well for the Buccaneers. Getting pressure with your front four without blitzing is and almost has been the key to success in the playoffs.
Think about the major upsets in Super Bowl history and more often than not, you’ll point to the winning team’s pass rush as the reason.
Tom Brady remembers 2011 all too well. It was Jason Pierre-Paul and that ferocious New York Giants pass rush that terrorized Brady all game long and eventually won New York the championship.
If Tampa Bay can replicate this in Super Bowl LV, and if they can get pressure on Mahomes without blitzing, they’ve got a legitimate chance to pull off the upset.
How the Chiefs got to Super Bowl LV
Regular Season Record: 14-2 (AFC West)
Against The Spread: 7-10-1 (1-3-1 Last 5)
Over/Under: 9-9 (3-2 Lst 5)
CHIEFS PLAYOFF RESULTS
Wild Card: Bye
Divisional Round: Win vs. #6 Browns, 22-17 (Under, CLE +9.5)
NFC Championship: Win vs. #2 Bills, 38-24 (Over, KC -3)
On the other side of the field, the Kansas City Chiefs are returning to the Super Bowl. How’d they get here? Simply put, they are in a class of their own.
The first time the Chiefs beat Buffalo, they did it on the ground. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 161 yards rushing in that game. What’s so impressive about the Chiefs is their ability to take what the defense gives them (and more) They can beat you in so many ways.
This time around, they did it through the air. Specifically, Mahomes to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. It’s a terrifying threesome for any defensive coordinator to plan for. This trio connected on 22, yes TWENTY-TWO, receptions, 290 yards, and two touchdowns.
The offense is always the story when discussing the Chiefs, but their pass rush was also quite formidable and ended the day with four sacks.
If they can get pressure on Brady, the Chiefs will win going away. It is imperative that Tampa Bay figures out a way to protect Brady and give him a chance to get the ball in the hands of his plentiful playmakers.
So, where are we at?
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SUPER BOWL LV ODDS
Super Bowl LV Spread: Chiefs -3 (-118)
This tells us the line could move to 3.5 so if you want Tampa Bay, it might be worth waiting or as always you can buy yourself the extra point on the Betrivers.com alternate lines page. Tampa +3.5 is currently -122.
Super Bowl LV Over/Under: 56 points
Super Bowl LV Moneyline: Chiefs -165, Buccaneers +145
The early money has been toward the Chiefs and the OVER. I have not bet on this game, but I’ll be updating this blog with betting ideas, trends, and my thoughts as February 7th grows nearer.