With the weekend wrapping up, it’s time to look back at the Week 9 NFL odds recap and take stock of what bets we were right to follow and what bets led us astray.
David Tuchman is here to analyze the NFL Week 9 odds recap and the bets he picked. We are 2-2 on the week with Patriots -7 still left to play. But if you read further, you will learn that Patriots -7 is already a win.
NFL Week 9 Odds Recap: What We Got Right
1. We assumed Philip Rivers and that Indianapolis offense would struggle against a top-shelf defense like the Ravens, and that’s exactly how things transpired. Coming off a loss, a desperate Baltimore team wasn’t going to lose this game. We were on Ravens -2.5 from the jump.
2. The NFC East is home to some very bad football, and Giants vs. Washington was exactly that, which is exactly why we bet on games like this, — and why we bet Giants +3. Why else would you watch two offenses that can barely get out of their own way? I’ll stand by what I said last week: Not much separates these teams in the NFC Least and anytime a team is getting an FG or more in these divisional matchups, it becomes intriguing.
3. You’re probably wondering why I’m putting Patriots -7 in the “what’d we get right” section since they haven’t played yet. If you remember last week, I was hard on myself for not forecasting line movements correctly. That’s part of the game and imperative if you want to make money.
Well, we bet on New England -7 early in the week and the line is now Patriots – 10 (as of 4 p.m. ET). That’s a HUGE movement and regardless of how the game turns out tonight, getting NE -7 is a win. This goes back to my ‘Focus on the decision making process’ and not the results mantra
NFL Week 9 Odds Recap: What We Got Wrong
1. Russell Wilson is still Elite. And the Wilson/Metcalf duo is unstoppable IF you don’t turn the ball over FOUR times. Neither Wilson nor us being on Seahawks -2.5 can overcome that.
Buffalo has shown us this season that they can be very good when Josh Allen is at his best which is exactly what we saw on Sunday. That’s the risk when you bet against a good team at home.
When you bet, there will be games like this. Turnovers are often the ‘luck’ factor when it comes to betting on the NFL. Not sure if there’s much to learn from this. I mean, despite turnover after turnover, the game still wasn’t over until the fourth quarter. We can hang our hat on that.
2. Not hitting Pittsburgh -13.5 against the lowly Cowboys is still a bit of a shock. This was one I didn’t see coming. Dallas was down to their fourth — yes, FOURTH — starting QB of the season and he was slated to play against arguably the best defense in the league. Couple that with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger piloting an explosive offense against a suspect Dallas defense and I expected a bludgeoning.
Instead, the Cowboys were up by ten heading into the fourth quarter.
You’ll rarely see ‘Sharps’ betting on double-digit favorites in the regular season and this is exhibit #1 as to why. Coming off an emotional victory against Baltimore, Pittsburgh was flat. My mistake was overlooking (or dismissing) that possibility.
NFL Week 9 Odds Recap: What We Learned
1. The marquee matchup of the week turned out to be a dud as New Orleans trounced Tampa Bay. My takeaways? Don’t count out the Bucs just yet. I’m not ready to dismiss 8 weeks of good QB play because of one horrific game. I’m also still confident in this Tampa defense.
As for New Orleans, having Michael Thomas back is huge. He is the Ying to Kamara’s Yang. Without both, this team doesn’t have the balance they need. Also, don’t sleep on the Saint’s defense. They were supposed to be quite good this year and that hadn’t been the case for the first two months of the season. Could yesterday be the confidence booster they need for the stretch run?
If you’re looking at futures, the Saints (+300) and the Buccaneers (+400) are still the class of the NFC, but I’m not sure there’s any value in betting on either at this point to win the NFC.
If you’re looking for value, take a look at the Buccaneers to win the NFC south. You can get +175. They are 0-2 against the Saints, so they’ll lose the tie-breaker if it comes to that, but It’s a long season…they are still only ½ game out of first and let’s not overreact to one game.
2. If you’re a Miami fan, you’ve got to be excited about Tua Tagovailoa. If you’re betting on Miami, you’re also excited. He’s green, but it’s clear they’ll be able to compete with him under center. Miami to win the AFC East at +550 represents some decent value – Their game vs the Bills on January 3rd could be for the division.
3. Dalvin Cook is on a different level right now. QBs move NFL lines. You almost never see a line move much because of a RB, but in the case of Dalvin Cook, maybe it should. This team is so different with him in the lineup. If you’re looking for long shots, Minnesota is +2200 to win the NFC north. They’ve got a favorable schedule going forward and if Cook can stay healthy, you never know.
4. The Jets are playing tonight and if they can’t beat a lost inept New England squad, they might not win a game all year. So does that mean we should bet on them to go 0-16? It’s intriguing because I don’t think they are going to win a game, but you might get more value by simply betting the money line against them each week.
5. This might sound ridiculous, but the Kansas City Chiefs seem off. I know. They’re 8-1 and Patrick Mahomes has 25 touchdown passes to 1 interception. But, they seem off. This is just one of those dumb eye test things, but I’ll be looking to fade them until they “look” better. For the record, the Chiefs are 6-3 against the spread, so I’m probably on an island when it comes to this perspective.
If you followed my advice and bet on New England tonight, good luck!
Regardless, look for Tuck’s Take for week 10 to come out later this week.