NFL Week 8 Odds Recap: What we got right, what we got wrong
With the weekend wrapping up, it’s time to look back at the Week 8 online nfl betting odds recap and take stock of what bets we were right to follow and what bets led us astray.
David Tuchman is here to analyze the NFL Week 8 odds recap and the bets he picked.
We’re 3-2 so far in Week 8 with tonight’s game still to be played. Tonight, we’re on Tampa -10.5 although the line has moved to 12.5 as of 9 a.m. Monday morning.
NFL Week 8 Odds Recap: What We Got Right
1. Denver pulled off the most dramatic comeback of the weekend. We hit on both Broncos +3 and Over 44.5 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers. While both bets looked to be in jeopardy early, it was quite obvious by the play throughout, that these were sharp bets. I never quite understood why the total on this game dipped down to 43 at one point. With two gun-slinging QBs, this was clearly a misprice.
As for the Chargers, Herbert looks to be the real deal, but they are a gambler’s nightmare. They continue to blow big lead after big lead. Betting on them is not for the faint of heart.
2. Pittsburgh +4 at the Baltimore Ravens was a pre-holiday gift. Concerns about Lamar Jackson’s accuracy which were forgotten about last year haven’t gone away and his limitations as a passer will ultimately hold back Baltimore. My thesis: The biggest concern about Lamar Jackson coming out of college was his passing. Scouts were worried he wasn’t accurate enough to succeed in the NFL. He was magnificent in 2019. But, as I pointed out in last week’s Tuck’s Take, Lamar Jackson in 2020 is very different than the one we’ve seen in 2019.
Two fumbles, two interceptions including a pick-six on the third play of the game was too much for Baltimore to overcome. Jackson will have to be better if Baltimore is going to compete with the best teams in the league and at this point, Pittsburgh is certainly that.
If Ben can stay healthy, this team should be in the conversation come late January.
These games are almost always close and anytime I can get more than a FG on either side, I’m going to jump on that more often than not.
NFL Week 8 Odds Recap: What We Got Wrong
1. I didn’t think the Eagles were good enough to give any team more than a touchdown. After watching them play, I still think that’s probably right, which is why we were on Cowboys +7.5 at Philadelphia. Keep in mind, this game was 9-7 with 17 minutes left to play.
If not for what certainly seemed like an odd officiating call when Philly got the defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter, Dallas might’ve covered. My thought process was that: it’s easier to play QB in today’s NFL than ever before and if the Cowboys can get even mediocre QB play from rookie, Ben DiNucci, they’ll cover this spread.
But Dinnucci was horrific. He looked woefully out of place and as long as he’s under center, Dallas is virtually un-bet-able.
So we lost this one, but that wasn’t our biggest mistake. I was on Cowboys +7.5 before the line moved to 9 and eventually 10.5 – This is a better’s nightmare. I need to do a better job of predicting where the line will move.
2. We were on Titans -5.5 at the Cincinnati Bengals, and well, things did not go according to plans. My thought process: The Bengals were missing four starting offensive lineman and rookie Joey “covers” Burrow (he’s now 7-1 ATS) would struggle in the face of pressure.
But, Tennessee still couldn’t generate a pass rush which is going to be problematic in today’s game.
I thought Derrick Henry couldn’t be stopped and Tennessee would dominate the time of possession – We got this mostly right, but it just wasn’t enough. A bad red-zone interception highlighted what might’ve been Ryan Tannehill’s worst game since he took over the starting role in Tennessee last season.
End of the day, I continue to underestimate Burrow’s ability to move the ball and I’m guilty of thinking Tennessee’s defense could get a stop or two.
So, we jumped back on the horse in week 6. After two weeks, we’re a respectable 8-5-1
NFL Week 8 Odds Recap: What We Learned
It’s rare that a running back moves the line, but maybe Dalvin Cook should. Green Bay lost that game because they couldn’t stop Cook.
The NY Jets only cover the spread if I bet against them. That said, we have jumped on an early line before it moves higher. Taking the Patriots -7 at the Jets on Monday Night. (I fully expect that line to be 7.5 or 8.5 by kickoff)
Indianapolis with a healthy Darius Leonard can get hot when Rivers doesn’t turn the ball over. Good luck figuring out when he’ll do that.