The 2021 NFL regular season is underway, and with the first week of games in the books, it’s time to turn our focus to the NFL Week 2 picks. NFL bettors learned a lot from Week 1, but there is still a lot to learn, as no sport is as week-to-week as the NFL Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview his Week 2 NFL picks and drops knowledge on the best bets worth a wager. Increase your chance to win after reviewing the news and bet on NFL at BetRivers.
This is truly one of my favorite times of the year. MLB is gearing up for the playoffs, my New York Jets haven’t officially been eliminated from the playoffs and hockey season is around the corner. And of course, all of this wonderful goodness to wager on.
After the New York Giants found a new way to lose on Thursday night, we’re 10-4 on the season (+589). It has come to my attention that maybe I haven’t explained what that number means. +589 assumes every bet is $100. So in theory, I’m up 5.89 units. If you bet $10 a unit or $1000 a unit, it should work the same. If we bet on a game or a player prop, we add or subtract the total from that. For example, if we bet on the Houston Texans to shock the world and beat the Cleveland Browns (we aren’t) at +475, and it happens, we add +475 to our total. If they lose, we subtract 100. If we bet on the Rams to beat the Colts on Sunday at -180, we add 100 to our total if they win and subtract 180 if they lose. Make sense?
Let’s get to the NFL Week 2 picks.
NFL WEEK 2 PICKS
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (1-0) vs. DALLAS COWBOYS (1-0)
MONEYLINE: Chargers -155 ML, Cowboys +135 ML
SPREAD: Chargers -3
CHARGERS vs. COWBOYS PUBLIC TRENDS
Chargers ML: 53% handle, 15% bets
Chargers Spread: 38% handle, 19% bets
Over: 72% handle, 66% bets
My favorite game of the week seems almost too good to be true which usually gives me pause. Because of that, I looked, again and again, to see what I might’ve been missing.
The Chargers beat what was supposed to be a very good Washington team in week one. Justin Herbert absolutely shredded the Washington secondary. I believe this is giving people more confidence in Herbert and the Chargers than maybe they should. We all watched Washington play Thursday night and while they won, it was hardly impressive. Their secondary made Daniel Jones look like a competent NFL QB.
For those of you who read my pre-season blogs or watched the videos, you know I’m bullish on the Cowboys. Dak is back and this offense is among the best in the league even without Michael Gallup for a few weeks. Nothing I saw when they played Tampa Bay has made me change my mind.
When I looked at the schedule in August, I assumed the Cowboys would be 1.5 point favorites in this game so you can imagine how excited I am to bet on Dallas now that they’re getting 3.5 points.
Couple this with the fact that the Cowboys had extra time to prepare for this game and that they are getting their best lineman, Zack Martin, back.
The Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3.5
If you want to bet on the ‘Boys to win the game at +155, you have my ringing endorsement. In fact, betting on them +3.5 or on the ML represents enormous value.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-0) vs. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (1-0)
MONEYLINE: Steelers -265 ML, Raiders +225 ML
SPREAD: Steelers -6.5
STEELERS vs. RAIDERS PUBLIC TRENDS:
Steelers ML: 77% handle, 68% bets
Steelers Spread: 72% handle, 53% bets
Over: 20% handle, 63% bets
Two teams coming off upset wins to start the 2021 campaign. I was more optimistic about the Steelers than most. I didn’t have them beating Buffalo in week one, but it didn’t shock me. That Pittsburgh defense is no joke. I had them winning 10 games and contending in the NFC north.
As for The Raiders, I wasn’t nearly as confident. I have my doubts about their defense and I’m not in love with their signal caller, Derek Carr. Darren Waller is from another planet and his athleticism will test every team’s defense.
This is an interesting game because the Raiders’ defense is not good, but Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. The Steelers’ offensive line is “offensive” to say the least. As for the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defense was able to slow down Josh Allen. Does Carr stand a chance?
I think this game is relatively low-scoring for today’s game and because of that, I’m leaning toward taking the points.
Pittsburgh wins a close one 23-21
The Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 and UNDER 47.5
NEW YORK JETS (0-1) vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (0-1)
MONEYLINE: Patriots -250 ML, Jets +210 ML
SPREAD: Patriots -6
JETS vs. PATRIOTS PUBLIC TRENDS:
Patriots ML: 93% handle, 90% bets
Patriots Spread: 89% handle, 77% bets
Over: 22% handle, 32% bets
I mentioned this last week – I’m not a huge fan of betting on rookie QBs. It’s easier than ever to have success early in your career as a QB because of all the NFL rules that favor offense. That said, it’s still not “easy.”
Well, this is a case of two rookie QBs who could be battling for the next decade.
I think the Mac Jones party has gotten a bit out of hand and I tend to still think Zach Wilson is flying under the radar. I loved what I saw from Wilson in week one despite the fact he was sacked six times.
I’m not going to sit here and tell you that the NY Jets are a better team than the Patriots, but I do think this line is based on reputation more than facts. After years and years and years … (stop me, please) of domination in this series, people are just assuming that will continue. The fact of the matter is, neither of these teams are particularly good (yet).
Six points on the road for a rookie QB??? That seems like a lot to me. And so…
The Pick: New York Jets +6