The second week of the 2021 NFL season is almost in the books, and with just one game left, it’s time to break down the Packers-Lions Week 2 odds for Monday Night Football and preview the best bets worth a wager. The Packers were on the wrong side of the most surprising Week 1 result, a 38-3 shellacking at the hands of the New Orleans Saints. The Lions put up a fight against the 49ers in Week 1, losing 41-33. But the Week 1 results didn’t cause the public to panic too much, not with the Lions having lost 11 of their last 12 games against NFC North opponents. Bet on NFL and be the first to win.
Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview the Packers-Lions Week 2 odds and provides his analysis on the best bets worth a wager.
RELATED: NFC NORTH PREVIEW
PACKERS-LIONS WEEK 2 ODDS
MONEYLINE: Packers -590 ML, Lions +460 ML
SPREAD: Packers -11.5
OVER/UNDER: 49 points
PACKERS-LIONS PUBLIC TRENDS
Packers ML: 94% handle, 79% bets
Packers Spread: 65% handle, 63% bets
Over: 75% handle, 80% bets
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are particularly good coming off a loss. Since 2018, the Packers are 10-4 ATS after a loss – covering 71.4% of their games which is the best mark in the league. The Packers-Lions Week 2 odds for Monday night are pretty strong in Green Bay’s direction, but it’s hard to imagine them coming up short to a average-at-best Lions team.
Rodgers’ Week 1 performance was one of the worst of his career. I fully expect him to have a bounce-back performance tonight. Detroit has no answer for The Rodgers to Davante Adams connection. In Week 1, Detroit allowed Jimmy Garoppolo and Deebo Samuel to go off (nine receptions, 189 yards) Expect to hear Rodgers to Adams again and again on Monday night.
As for the game, I’ve already made the case for Green Bay, but I’m going to pass on the 11.5 point spread. If I was betting on it, I’d definitely lean toward Green Bay.
I’m betting on the UNDER 49. Detroit has an excellent TE in T.J. Hockensen, but the rest of their pass catchers are abysmal. While I don’t think Lions will be able to stop Green Bay on offense, I also don’t think the Packers will need to score.
It’s a weird dynamic because the game script should favor Detroit’s passing game, but their receivers are so bad, I just don’t think it’ll matter. For these reasons, I do like OVER 4.5 receptions for T. J. Hockensen. Jared Goff needs to throw to someone.
My favorite bet of the week is Davante Adams OVER 7.5 receptions. Whether it’s AJ Parker or Amani Oruwariye defending him (or both) Detroit has no answer for Adams.
My prediction for the game: Green Bay dominates from the start. Detroit gets some garbage time points, but not nearly enough. The final score? The Green Bay Packers win, 29-17.
TUCK’S TEN TAKEAWAYS FROM WEEK 2
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offense is bad. I mean, really bad. I’d almost rather watch someone random run a marathon.
- Anyone with a Baltimore Ravens jersey on can run the ball. Last year with J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, etc. they averaged 5.2 yards per carry. This year with Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, and Devonta Freeman, they’re averaging 5.4 ypc.
- I’m not going to win my Zack Wilson Offensive Rookie of the Year pick. The New York Jets’ first-round pick has completed 39 of 70 pass attempts with two touchdowns and five interceptions in his first two games.
- Props continue to be badly mispriced. While totals and spreads are market-corrected almost immediately, the prop market is small enough that you can find some inefficiencies that aren’t corrected enough even after the sharp money gets involved. See last Thursday’s Sterling Shepard OVER 4.5 receptions bet. There are a couple each week that seem to be way off projections.
- Don’t come to any grand conclusions about who will win it all now. There’s a saying – the season doesn’t really start until November – That is even more true now that each team is playing a 17th regular-season game. What we think we know for certain now can most definitely be very different in December. Maybe there’s value to be had if you’re willing to bet on a team that tripped coming out of the gate.
- The Tennessee Titans might’ve saved their season with their heroic comeback vs Seattle. I have concerns. Jonnu Smith was an underrated part of that offense and it appears Ryan Tannehill misses him. That said, the AFC South is weak, the Titans should win it by default.
- Maybe Adam Gase was as bad as we all thought. Give Sam Darnold a new coach and some weapons and he suddenly looks like the player the New York Jets thought they were getting when they selected him 3rd overall.
- Public perception matters – The Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, and Las Vegas Raiders are all playing better than people thought they would as evidenced by their 10-0 ATS mark.
- Along those same lines, take a look at the Kansas City Chiefs. There’s no doubt this is a ridiculously talented team, but they have been bad against the spread. The Chiefs were 8-11 ATS last year and started out this season 0-2. When the Patriots dominated, they also made gamblers a ton of money. The same can’t be said for the Chiefs.
- Josh Allen has been far less effective on his deep balls and I’m starting to wonder if last season was an aberration or will he return to form? They crushed a Tua-less Miami Dolphins team this week, but Allen wasn’t great. Buffalo plays Washington this week who just made Daniel Jones look like Joe Montana. Josh Allen should get back on track – if he doesn’t, I’d be concerned.