AL Wild Card Game Odds

The MLB postseason gets going on Tuesday and has the latest AL Wild Card Game odds for a scintillating one-game matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox. The Yankees enter the AL Wild Card Game having won seven of their last ten games, and have won each of their last 12 night games following a home win. The Red Sox enter Tuesday’s AL Wild Card Game having won three in a row, but are just 5-5 in their last ten games, which includes three straight losses to the Yankees.

Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman has been picking MLB games all season long and is here to run through the AL Wild Card game odds and provide his Yankees-Red Sox picks and predictions.


STARTING PITCHERS: Gerrit Cole (NYY. 16-8, 3.23) v. Nate Eovaldi (BOS. 11-9, 3.75)
MONEYLINE: Yankees -132 ML, Red Sox +115 ML
RUN LINE: Yankees -1 (-115), Red Sox +1 (-110)
TOTAL: 8 runs (-105/-114)

Yankees ML: 77% handle, 65% bets
Yankees Spread: 63% handle, 57% bets
Over: 40% handle, 62% bets


What a way to kick off October and Playoff baseball.  The most storied rivalry in all of baseball history. The Yankees v. The Red Sox. The last time these two met in a one-game playoff, it was 1978. Both teams finished 99-63, tied for first in the AL East. The one-game playoff was set for Fenway Park, where the Red Sox tossed journeyman Mike Torrez against Cy Young winner Ron Guidry (25-3), and the Yankees came out on top, barely, thanks to an unlikely home run by SS Bucky Dent. Will history repeat itself? In 2021, both teams finished 92-70, the Red Sox won the season series 10-9, and outscored the Yankees by only 1 run – 75-74. The Yankees won the last six games of the season series, including sweeping the Red Sox at Fenway Park two weeks ago.

This game will feature Yankee ace, and possible Cy Young, Gerrit Cole against journeyman Nate Eovaldi. Eovaldi has dominated the Yankees this year, with a 2.01 ERA over his first 5 starts, but the Yankees got revenge in the Fenway sweep, knocking him out in the third inning, scoring 7 runs. Meanwhile, Cole is pitching on a bad hamstring and has not pitched well vs. the Red Sox  (4.91 ERA) or over his last 3 starts – post-injury (7.64 ERA). 

For the lineups, the Yankees have been carried, literally, by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, both of whom put up 10 HR since September 1st. While the Red Sox have relied on a monster season from Rafael Devers (.279-38-113, .890 OPS). The Sox have a monster lineup tho, up and down the order. Bobby Dalbec has had a hot second-half, to finish with 25 HR and 78 RBI; Xander Bogaerts hit .295-23-79 (.863); JD Martinez has been solid (.286-28-99, .867) and Hunter Renfroe has been a pleasant surprise (.259-31-96, .816).

The Yankees have the edge in the bullpen, with Green (10-7, 3.12, 6 saves, 0.88 WHIP); Loaisiga (9-4, 2.17, 5 saves, 1.02 WHIP); Luetge (4-2, 2.74); Peralta (3-3, 2.95); and Clay Holmes (5-2, 1.61). The Sox have a piece-it-together and hope for the best bullpen approach and it’s cost them a lot of times this season. The Yankees closer, Aroldis Chapman, has made things interesting this year, at times, but still finished with 30 saves and 97k over 56 IP.

This is a coin-flip game, with each team having obvious paths to victory. The Sox will want to get to Cole early, via the long ball (Devers, Martinez, Renfroe) and put up enough runs to make the bullpen relatively irrelevant. They’ll also want to pitch around Judge and Stanton and force someone else (Rizzo, .249-8-21; Odor, .202-15-39; Gallo, .160-13-22, Torres, .259-9-51) to beat them – which is something the Yankees have struggled with this year.

So what’s the pick? In 1978, the Yankees were a team of destiny. And there was only one round of playoffs. This year, the Rays are looming and neither the Yankees or Red Sox are built to beat them. In this one-and-done scenario, I’d take the team getting the odds. The Yankees opened as a small road favorite, so the pick here is the Red Sox, who will get to an injured Cole, and win this one, knocking the Yankees out. 

The Pick: Red Sox ML (+105)