PSG vs. MANCHESTER UNITED, 3:00 p.m.
Over 3.5: +120
Under 3.5: -127
United will be heading back to the Parc des Princes for the first time since a 3-1 second leg victory in March of 2019 that was capped with a stoppage time penalty from Marcus Rashford that knocked the Parisians out of the Champions League. Just two months removed from reaching last season’s CL final, PSG has been as utterly dominant as you would expect against overmatched Ligue 1 opponents, while United shook off a slow start to post a 4-1 win on Tyneside at the weekend.
PSG should be all systems go in attack. Neymar was rested at the weekend against Nimes and PSG still won that match 4-0. He’ll be back to lead the line alongside Kylian Mbappe and Angel Di Maria. The rest of their lineup is more of a question mark. Leandro Paredes limped off against 10 minutes against Nimes. Danilo Pereira is still isolated after close contact with Cristiano Ronaldo. Julian Draxler, Marquinhos, Mauro Icardi and Marco Verratti are all doubts. I’m not overly worried about their midfield, but the same cannot be said about their backline, where injuries and departures have left some new faces in defense.
And while United has hardly looked like the United we saw during the restart, there is a lot of talent against for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Anthony Martial will return to the lineup, and I’d expect to see both Rashford and Bruno Fernades in the XI. Paul Pogba picked up a knock while on international duty with France, but he did play off the bench against Newcastle on Saturday. We won’t get to see Edison Cavani against his old side, and all of Harry Maguire, Eric Bailly and Mason Greenwood were left home.
Put it all together, and what you have are a pair of rosters with extremely skilled attackers and strong midfields facing off with back-up defenders. I’m expecting plenty of goals.
That said, I’m not sold on United having righted the ship. They were trailing Newcastle early and needed three goals after the 85th minute to get their 4-1 on Saturday. Their deadline day additions haven’t bedded in quite yet.
So I do like the PSG side here. Parlaying a PSG win and over 3.5 goals is currently paying out at (+200), although I do like paying buying the total down to 2.5 goals so both 3-0 and 2-1 get you there. That parlay pays out at (-105).
CHELSEA vs. SEVILLA, 3:00 p.m.
Over 2.5: -139
Under 2.5: +112
Chelsea were the clearcut winners of the transfer window, as they used the money that they had yet to spend from last summer’s sale of Eden Hazard to put together one of the most thrilling attacking sides in Europe. Timo Werner is a video game, and Kai Havertz could win a Ballon D’or one day.
That said, Chelsea’s issues last season are … still issues. Their defensive midfield is not all that defensive. They have a back line that is constantly making critical errors, and they went to all the effort of signing a keeper to replace Kepa Arrizabalaga, who has been horrific for months, only to see Edouard Mendy get injured on international duty. (Keep an eye on this. There have been rumors saying Mendy will return on Tuesday.)
The blueprint is there for how to beat the Blues. Sit back, soak up the pressure, force them to break down a parked bus and spring them on the country. West Brom did it. Southhampton did it. Spurs did it. And it just so happens that Sevilla are a counter-attacking side that is coming off of a Europa League title (in which they beat Roma, Wolves, United and Inter) before taking Bayern to extra time in the UEFA Super Cup and drawing Barca before the international break.
So I like the Sevilla side here. I’m more interested in betting on a draw at +260 than I am in betting Sevilla to win at +270, but it’s worth noting that Sevilla (+0.5) is -121. As long as Chelsea does not win, you win your bet.