The two best teams in the AFC are ready to go at it as the Kansas Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills in the 2020 AFC Championship Game, and BetRivers.com is proud to provide a wide variety of Chiefs-Bills playoff odds, prop bets, teasers, and alternate lines.
Kickoff for the 2020 AFC Championship Game between the Chiefs and Bills is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 24 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri and will be broadcast on CBS.
Longtime broadcaster and gambling expert David Tuchman breaks down the Chiefs-Bills playoff odds and analyzes the picks he thinks are worth a wager.
#1 Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) vs. #2 Buffalo Bills (13-3)
MONEYLINE: Chiefs -177, Bills +155
SPREAD: Chiefs -3.5
OVER/UNDER: 54.5 Points
Click here for the full list of Chiefs-Bills Playoff Odds
Chiefs-Bills Playoff Odds: Betting Trends
The preseason favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions are just one win away from a return trip, and no team in 2020 is backed by more money to win the championship than Kansas City, with 22% of the total Super Bowl futures handle. Patrick Mahomes completed the NFL concussion protocol on Friday and is good to go for Sunday, and while he’s the ultimate difference-maker, the Chiefs still have to face the NFL’s hottest team.
Winners of eight straight, the Bills have covered in four of their last five, while Kansas City has not covered since the first day in November. The public is currently learning toward the Bills to win (58% of ML handle), but is split on the spread, with 56% of the spread bets backing the Bills, but 58% of the spread handle backing the Chiefs. Bettors are also torn on Over/Under 54 points, with 49% of both spread bets and handle on the over.
Chiefs-Bills Playoff Odds: Tuck’s Take
The AFC championship hinges on one player. Let’s not pretend it doesn’t. Kansas City isn’t winning this game with Chad Henne under center. With that out of the way, let’s assume Patrick Mahomes is playing. The line is certainly indicative of that expectation.
There was some value really early for those willing to gamble on the health of the Chiefs star QB. Buffalo was actually favored for a hot minute. Frankly, I was surprised that the bet was even available. With Mahomes, the line is 3-4, without him, Buffalo would be favored by more than a field goal. He’s that important.
One promise I’ll make to you. I’ll always be honest. If there’s no value, If I’m not betting, I’ll tell you. At this time of the season, it can difficult to find said value. Opportunities come about for a variety of reasons, but often it’s because you have information someone doesn’t have access to or just hasn’t done the work to find.
Information is king.
With that said, there are only two games this weekend. With so many eyeballs watching and analyzing, the margins for success are razor-thin.
Let’s get to the game…
The Chiefs haven’t covered the line since 1997. I’m exaggerating,… slightly. KC is 0-8-1 against the spread over the last nine games. That’s astonishing, but keep in mind, the Chiefs have also only lost one of those nine games and that was a meaningless week 17 affair against the Chargers.
Buffalo, on the other hand, hasn’t lost since they carved the turkey on Thanksgiving. Eight straight wins for our friends in upstate New York. They’re also 7-1 against the spread over that stretch.
I don’t see an amazing opportunity in this game, but I am betting it because, well, it’s the AFC championship game and watching these games is infinitely more fun when a few dollars are on the line.
These two teams met on the field back in October. I’m not sure if we can read too much into that outcome although KC did win by 9.
I think this game is a lot closer, but ultimately I think the better team wins and the better team is the Chiefs.
I’m betting on Chiefs -165 ML to win and I’m betting on them to cover the 3-point spread.
*(if it’s at 3.5, I’ll stay away and only bet on KC to win on the ML)
For what it’s worth, the majority of the betting tickets and cash is on Buffalo so we’re going contrarian which makes me happy.
30-26 Chiefs win!
While my pick above might only be categorized as a 1-star, the one I’m about to mention is a 5-star!
The Chiefs like to play press-man coverage. Against press coverage, Stefon Diggs is as good or better as anyone. Per PFF, he has the most receptions and most yards in the NFL against press coverage.
Diggs and QB Josh Allen have a special bond on the field as evidenced by the results.
Diggs last six games:
- 8 receptions for 106 yards
- 6 receptions for 128 yards
- 7 receptions for 76 yards
- 9 receptions for 145 yards
- 11 receptions for 147 yards
- 10 receptions for 130 yards
Amazingly, Josh Allen has targeted Stefon Diggs 107 times over the last 10 games. They’ve connected on 87 receptions. For those of you keeping score, that’s 81.3%. That’s good. Really good.
I couldn’t complete 81% of my passes even without someone defending.
Short of injury, there’s no scenario I can imagine where Buffalo isn’t throwing the ball for the majority of this game and let’s be clear, if Allen is throwing, he’s throwing it to Diggs.
Stefon Diggs OVER 94.5 receiving yards is the play.
Chiefs-Bills Playoff Odds: How To Watch
When is the Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game?
The Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game takes place on Sunday, January 24. Kickoff is set for 6:40 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
How can I watch the Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game on TV?
The Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game will be broadcast on CBS at 6:40p.m. ET on Sunday, January 24. Additionally, the Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game is available for live streaming on CBS All Access.