The calendar flips over from April to May this weekend and it’s time to take a look at our Weekend MLB picks for Friday, April 30 to Sunday, May 2. BetRivers.com is proud to provide a wide variety of MLB game odds, teasers, props, player markets, team markets and futures odds. Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview the notable games and make his MLB Weekend picks.
So last week was pretty good, as we went 4-2 overall, bringing us to 7-6 on the year – not bad considering we started 0-3. I’m pretty certain on this weekend’s starting pitchers, but please understand this golden rule of thumb on my picks – “IF I base my pick on a team’s SP – as you will see me state expressly below – and that starting pitcher is skipped or moved back a day, I would AVOID that game.”
Last week I said John Means would win on Saturday. He got moved to Sunday. The Orioles lost Saturday but WON on Sunday – Means got the win. If that happens, go with the SP I pick, rather than the team. My picks generally are predicated on a solid starter or a lineup that is absolutely raking – or both.
With that, lets get to the weekend MLB picks.
WEEKEND MLB PICKS: FRIDAY, APRIL 30
CLEVELAND INDIANS (11-12) at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (14-10), 8:10 p.m. ET
PITCHERS: Shane Bieber (CLE) vs. Dallas Keuchel (CHI)
MONEYLINE: Indians -141 ML, White Sox +123 ML
SPREAD: Indians -1 (-105), White Sox +1 (-113)
OVER/UNDER: 6.5 runs (-114/-105)
Click here for the full list of White Sox-Indians odds.
So, the White Sox are creeping back into contention at 14-10, winning six of their last ten. The Indians are slumping, at 11-12, having lost six of their last ten. And man, the White Sox can rake. DH Yermin Mercedes is hitting a robust .432 with 4 HR and 15 RBI. Shortstop Tim Anderson is hitting .333, while young OF Luis Robert is hitting .305. Second baseman Nick Madrigal is hitting .290 while third baseman Yoan Moncada is hitting .253, with 11 RBI. Outfielder Adam Eaton has 3 HR and 18 RBI. Only Jose Abreu is slumping, with a .214 average, but he still has 5 HR and 17 RBI.
Meanwhile, Cleveland hasn’t hit much this year, although Franmil Reyes is leading the team with a .293 avg, 7 HR and 17 RBI. Jose Ramirez is hitting .262 with 6 HR and 12 RBI, but that’s basically the extent of their offense. So, what’s the pick? Why it’s Cleveland of course! The reason? Reigning Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is starting for Cleveland. The last time the White Sox faced Bieber, he struck out 11 and pitched a 3-hit shutout. Bieber is 2-1 with 57 K through his first 36 IP on the year. For Chicago, their starting pitch Dallas Keuchel has 4.32 ERA and a 1.32 whip. He’s been fairly hittable to start the year but did toss 6 scoreless innings against Texas his last time out. Will it matter? No. Bieber beats the White Sox again. Go Tribe!
The Pick: Cleveland Indians -137 ML
WEEKEND MLB PICKS: SATURDAY, MAY 1
KANSAS CITY ROYALS at MINNESOTA TWINS, 2:10 p.m. ET
PITCHERS: Danny Duffy (KC) vs. Matt Shoemaker (MIN)
The Kansas City Royals…the blue dynamos of the AL Central. The Royals are streaking to a 15-8 start, which is absolutely amazing. They’re 7-3 over their last ten games and a big part of their success is Danny Duffy. Yes this is Danny Duffy’s world, and we just live in it. He’s 3-1 with 27 K in 23 IP and an infinitesimal 0.39 ERA. He’s been a huge reason Kansas City is in first place. Meanwhile, equally shocking (unless you read my pre-season picks) are the Minnesota Twins and their ghastly 8-15 record. (one of our favorite bets this pre-season was UNDER 88.5 wins) The Twinkies have lost eight of their last ten and they have really struggled to find consistent offense and pitching. But at least their bullpen has been…no, that’s bad too, especially Alex Colome, who lost his closer’s job.
The Royals offense is led by Salvy Perez (.266-5-13); Whit Merrifield (.286-3-15, 8 SB) and Carlos Santana (8 HR, 25 RBI). I’d keep an eye on Santana, a switch hitter and Andrew Benintendi in this one, as lefties murder Twins starter Matt Shoemaker, hitting .350 so far this year off him. The Twins lineup does have Byron Buxton, an early MVP candidate, hitting .438-8 HR-14 RBI; Nelson Cruz hitting .338-7-18 and Josh Donaldson hitting .308. But Duffy will prevail.
The Pick: Kansas City Royals
COLORADO ROCKIES at ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS, 8:10 p.m. ET
PITCHERS: Austin Gomber (COL) vs. Zac Gallen (ARI)
So here’s a game most people outside of Arizona and Denver don’t give a whit about. In fact, most people in Colorado and Arizona don’t care about this one as both the Rockies (9-15) and the D-Backs (12-12) have been mediocre to bad to start the year. But I think you can make some money here taking the D-Backs.
Arizona has won seven of their last ten games to get back to .500 and have Eduardo Escobar with 7 HR and 14 RBI; catcher Carson Kelly hitting .327-6-14 and OF David Peralta with 19 RBI. (.267 BA) D-Backs SP Zac Gallen is 1-0, with a 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 20 K in 16 IP. His last time out he pitched a seven-inning shutout against the Braves.
Whereas the Rockies are …uh…rocking with Austin Gomber who is 1-3, and an unsightly 6.65 ERA. He’s not been good. The Rockies have Ryan McMahon hitting .272 with 8 HR and 15 RBI. The Rockies also have six other hitters with ten or more RBI, but they’re not really hitting with a lot of power as they’ve historically done. Also, this game is in Arizona.
The Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks
WEEKEND MLB PICKS: SUNDAY, MAY 2
MIAMI MARLINS at WASHINGTON NATIONALS, 1:05 p.m. ET
PITCHERS: Trevor Rogers (MIA) vs. Max Scherzer (WAS)
This is a classic baseball matchup. The old, grizzled veteran versus the young buck. It’s old Max Scherzer versus young Max Scherzer. (Am I the only one that thinks it would be a super cool movie)? I digress. The Nationals and…well, Max Scherzer, take on the Marlins and young stud, Trevor Rogers. Scherzer is 1-2 on the year, with 38 K in 30 IP a 3.00 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, which, except for the W-L record is good. But he’s given up 6 HR through 30 IP, which isn’t great. That’s a pace for 42 HR over a full season.
The Marlins are assembling an extraordinary young pitching staff, and Trevor Rogers is quickly emerging as their ace. He’s 3-1 with 38 K in 28 IP and only 1 HR; he’s got a 1.29 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He’s legit. Young. And damn good.
While the Marlins are slumping as of late 11-13, winning just 4 of their last 10, the Nats haven’t fared any better, going 9-12, and winning five over their last ten. Juan Soto is out with an injury for the Nats and 1B Josh Bell is hitting Tori Amos’s weight, batting an anemic .120. Trea Turner is hitting .317 with 6 HR and 10 RBI and 5 SB; Josh Harrison has been a surprise hitting .314 and Starlin Castro has 13 RBI. But really, they’re not hitting at all as a team.
For Miami, meanwhile, Jesus Aguilar is pounding the baseball, at a .295-5-22 clip; Corey Dickerson is hitting .320 and Adam Duvall has knocked in 14 (he’s only hitting .188 though) In what will undoubtedly be the next 100 million dollar blockbuster movie, Young Max Scherzer defeats his arch-nemesis, older version.
The Pick: Miami Marlins