Weekend EPL Picks

It’s an important weekend on the Premier League pitch, and BetRivers.com is proud to provide a wide variety of Saturday EPL picks, odds, teasers and props. Rob Dauster is here to give his Saturday EPL picks as he breaks down Chelsea vs. Fulham and Everton vs. Aston Villa.

CHELSEA (16-10-7) vs. FULHAM (5-12-16), 12:30 p.m. ET
CHELSEA: -205
FULHAM: +650
DRAW: +325
Over 2.5: +106
Under 2.5: -132
Click here for the full list of Chelsea vs. Fulham odds.

Easily the most important game of Saturday’s Premier League slate, this is easily the least important match of the three that Chelsea will be playing in an eight-day span.

The Blues are coming off of a thoroughly impressive draw in Madrid on Tuesday. The final scoreline was 1-1, but the xG was 1.4-0.3 in favor of the English giants. Prior to that draw, Chelsea went into West Ham and beat the Hammers 1-0, a match that finished 2.2-0.4 on xG. Overall, Chelsea has had the best defense in the Premier League since Thomas Tuchel replaced Frank Lampard back in January, and given that they are facing a Fulham side that is going to have to win at Stamford Bridge as well as Old Trafford if they really want a chance of avoiding relegation, I think the writing is on the wall here. I fully expect Chelsea to keep a clean sheet and win, and the price for that bet is currently a tasty (+120) at Bet Rivers.

But there’s more to discuss here.

Because Chelsea will host Madrid in the second leg of their Champions League semifinal on Wednesday. Win and they’re playing for European Silverware. Given the caliber of opponent that they are facing on Saturday and the depth of Tuchel’s roster, I would not be surprised to see some fairly heavy rotation. They can win with a rotated side, and that makes the under even more intriguing here. Remember, Chelsea has gone under 2.5 goals in 19 of their 22 games since Tuchel took over. There’s value on under 2.5 goals at (-132) on Saturday.

EVERTON (15-7-10) vs. ASTON VILLA (13-6-13), 3:00 p.m. ET
EVERTON (+105)
VILLA (+270)
DRAW (+250)
Over 2.5 (-109)
Under 2.5 (-114)
Click here for the full list of Everton vs. Aston Villa odds.

Everton, believe it or not, have a chance to jump into sixth, three points off of a Champions League place, if they win on Saturday. They also have a game in hand over the teams they are competing for a European place with, and they are coming off of a win against Arsenal last weekend.

The problem?

That win was their first in the last six matches, and it came in what was yet another listless performance and was a direct result of a horrific goal-keeping error by Gunner goalie Bernd Leno.

Put another way, the Toffees are not good. Their goal differential (+4) is significantly below that of the other teams competing for Europe. It’s significantly higher than their xG differential, which sits at -3.1.

Aston Villa has not been the same team since Jack Grealish went down with an injury. His ball progression and chance creation was central to what made them such a threat this year. But the Villans still have some interesting talent on their roster. Ollie Watkins is a star in the making.

I’ll be backing Villa on Saturday. I just think there is way too much value on them right now. I like the price for a draw and a Villa win, but I think my favorite bet is Villa +0.5 at (-125).