Tuck’s Take: NFL Week 7 Odds, Predictions and Preview
The NFL Week 7 odds are up at BetRivers.com and the weekend brings us a massive showdown between the two remaining undefeated teams in the AFC.
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Before we look ahead to the NFL Week 7 odds on BetRivers.com, let’s look back at what was Week 6. Something we’ll do all season is trying to learn from our mistakes. What’d we get right? What’d we get wrong? And what’d we learn?
David Tuchman is breaking down the NFL odds and miking his picks every week here on Tuck’s Take.
We went 4-3. Made a bit of money, but it’s important not to be results-oriented, and rather, I want to evaluate the decisions and in turn the decision-making process.
Let’s say, in theory, you had a weird time machine and you could bet on a team that you absolutely knew would win 60% of the time. Unfortunately, you bought some cheap time machine from a third-party and as a result, you couldn’t pinpoint which games this particular team would win and which ones they’d lose. You only knew they were going to win three out of every five games (or 60%).
Let’s say your favorite betting site, BetRivers.com, offered you even money each time this team played. Would you bet on them? Would you bet on them each and every week? You certainly should. Now, what if you lost? Would it have been a bad decision to bet that week? Of course not. We’re making money each and every time we make this bet. The line is set as if the team is only going to win 50% of their games, yet we “know” they’ll win 60% of the time.
Unfortunately, we don’t have a time machine that can give us the information in my example so we need to evaluate each bet and each game and see if our thought process (why we made the wager) played out the way we thought it would.
These were Tuck’s Takes in Week 6:
Washington +3.5 (W): The thought process was simple. This game is a pick’em and despite the Giants getting out to the early lead, that’s certainly the way the game played out. A late defensive TD gave us a sweat, but this is a bet we win over 60% of the time in my estimation.
Ravens – 7.5 (L) & Ravens-Eagles UNDER 47.5 (L): I underestimated Wentz ability in the 2nd half and I while I liked the under because I knew Baltimore’s offense had been struggling, I forgot to factor that into their ability to get ahead AND put this game away.
In retrospect, even though it looked like Baltimore had this in the bag, it wasn’t a good decision.
Browns-Steelers OVER 51 (L): We lost this because Baker Mayfield was horrific. I was concerned about his health, but when we saw him playing, I figured at worst, we’d get the OVER in garbage time. Maybe I’m underestimating the Steeler’s defense, but with 31 points scored in the first half and a game script that suggests Cleveland would be throwing the ball non-stop in the 2nd half, I felt good.
Baker ended up getting benched/hurt, which we couldn’t predict and no garbage time TD came. Still, I think this was a profitable bet that probably pays off around 60% of the time.
Bears +2.5 (W): On a neutral field, Chicago would be about a 2.5/3 point favorite over Carolina. Home field in 2020 doesn’t mean what it used to (for more on that, check out last week’s Tucks Take). This was a gift.
Dolphins – 8 (W): The NY Jets are 0-6 and 0-6 against the spread. From a talent and coaching perspective, this might be one of the worst teams ever. If only all my sports betting decisions were this easy.
Tease Ravens to -1.5 AND Dolphins to -2 (W).
NFL WEEK 7 ODDS: TUCK’S TAKE
Jaguars (1-5) at Chargers (1-4). 4:20 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Chargers -345, Jaguars +295
Spread: Chargers 7.5
Over/Under: 49.5 points
Click here for the full list of Jaguars-Chargers odds.
I think this is a bit of an overreaction to the recent horrid play from Jacksonville, specifically their QB, Gardner Minshew, and the excitement over rookie Chargers QB, Joey Herbert. Herbert has been good, but his accuracy is still hit-or-miss and his decision-making is still at a rookie level.
I have the Chargers as 4 point favorites on a neutral field. Again, I don’t think home-field means all that much, so maybe we slide the line up to 5.5. Here, we can comfortably bet on the Jaguars getting over a TD.
Bills (4-2) at Jets (0-6). 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Bills -715, Jets +510
Spread: Bills -13.5
Over/Under: 45 points
Click here for the full list of Bills-Jets odds.
Buffalo has not looked good as of late and on a neutral field they should probably be around 10 point favorites over the NY Jets, so logic would dictate, let’s bet on the Jets. ….
No chance of that happening. In fact, we’re going to go against the charts and remind ourselves, Adam Gase is still the head coach.
I’ll ride this loser until something changes.
Give me Buffalo -13 (if the line moves over Two touchdowns, I might stay away)
Buccaneers (4-2) at Raiders (3-2), 8:20 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Buccaneers -162, Raiders +143
Spread: Buccaneers -3
Over/Under: 53 points
Click here for the full list of Buccaneers-Raiders odds.
Las Vegas, coming off a bye and its biggest victory in years is being priced a bit high here. The Buccaneers are a better team in almost every facet of the game and If you’re a Tampa fan, you’ve got to be excited to see how the team responded to Tom Brady’s sideline temper tantrum.
Again, this is a home-field misprice and we’ll continue to drink up these opportunities when they present themself.
Take Tampa -2.5 to the bank (anything less than FG is stealing)
Packers (5-1) at Texans (1-5), 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Packers -177, Texans +155
Spread: Packers -3.5
Over/Under: 57 points
Click here for the full list of Packers-Texans odds.
There’s no doubt that Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay looked terrible last week and this line is indicative of that. While I’m not sold on Green Bay necessarily being the elite team they appeared to be the first five weeks, I’m also not convinced they are nearly as bad as they looked vs Tampa.
Houston on the other hand might just be that bad. I mean, they aren’t 1-5 bad, but this team has deficiencies in most spots as evidenced by the fact they allowed a 200-yard rusher AND a 350-yard passer.
End of the day, we’ve got a good 4-1 team vs a bad 1-5 team. Why isn’t this spread 7 points?
In addition, Aaron Rodgers has been this bad four times since 2016 and in the game that followed, he’s put up 11 touchdowns with no interceptions. The bounce-back theory won’t always work, but I’m willing to bet it does this week.
Give me Green Bay -3.5.
Steelers (5-0) at Titans (5-0), 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Steelers -124, Titans +108
Spread: Steelers -2
Over/Under: 51.5 points
Click here for the full list of Steelers-Titans odds.
This is the marquee matchup of the week. Two 5-0 teams battling in what should be a high scoring affair. I bet on the Pittsburgh/Cleveland game going OVER last week and we lost, but I think we were on the right side. Fast forward to this week, and I still don’t think the Steeler’s offense can be stopped. They have yet to score less than 26 points in a game.
As for the Titans, they are averaging over 30 and while I might be underestimating the Steeler’s defense once again, I don’t think they’ll be able to shut down that well-balanced Tennessee attack.
My money is on the OVER.
For the record, I think this game stays close-ish, but I’m not confident enough to bet money on the Titans +2 which is the side I’d be on if forced to choose.
Lions (2-3) at Falcons (1-5), 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Falcons -136, Lions +120
Spread: Falcons -2.5
Over/Under: 56.5 points
Click here for the full list of Lions-Falcons odds.
Atlanta has a new fancy head coach and if last week was any indication, they’ll be a handful going forward. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, their defense is still a mess and will continue to hold them back.
This week, they take on a Detroit team that is much better on defense than people give them credit for. Key contributions from rookies on offense (Jonah Jackson and D’Andre Swift) makes Detroit a slightly better team than what the public perception is.
From a betting perspective, the Falcons tend to be overrated. My theory is that big-time fantasy football producers make people think that a team might be better than they actually are.
Nonetheless, this line should be closer to a pick’em which brings me to my last wager of the week.
We’re going to TEASE Detroit from +2.5 to +8.5 and Tennessee from +2 to +8. If you want to learn about teasers, click on this link.
And so, to review, here is my TUCK’S TAKE for the NFL Week 7 Odds:
- Jaguars +7.5
- Bills -13
- Buccaneers -2.5
- Packers -3.5
- Steelers-Titans OVER 51
- Tease Lions +2.5 to +8.5 and Titans +2 to +8