The NFL Week 10 odds are up at BetRivers.com and with just seven weeks remaining before the start of the playoffs, teams — and bookmakers — are tightening things up.
Longtime broadcaster and gambling expert David Tuchman is here every week to preview the NFL odds and break down the picks he is thinking about.
Last week was one for the ages. We went 12-0 in my Tuck’s Take blog (13-2 overall). I’ll continue to try and give you my best. I can promise you I won’t be that good (or that lucky) every week.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at Week 11.
An interesting thing to keep an eye on in the NFL around this time of year is which teams have given up and which teams are still fighting for their teammates and for their coach. I wonder if the recent spike in COVID-19 cases only makes this even more conspicuous.
I’m not going to suggest that players don’t always try their best, but well, that’s exactly what I’m doing. The amount of work, preparation, and dedication that goes into winning are immense. The stresses of life, especially in 2020, can add up and when your team is 2-8, it can be difficult to motivate oneself.
Got it? Let’s move on.
NFL WEEK 11 ODDS: TUCK’S TAKE
Cardinals (6-3) at Seahawks (6-3). 8:20 p.m. (TNF)
Moneyline: Seahawks -162, Cardinals +140
Spread: Seahawks -3
Over/Under: 57.5 points
Seattle can be a harsh environment to play football for the visiting squad. The 12th man is legendary, but this year, things are different, and while I do give Seattle a slight bump for playing at home, it’s certainly not the traditional 3 points.
Russell Wilson has been uncharacteristically average the last couple of weeks and with their defense being borderline historically bad, Russell Wilson needs to be at his best if they are going to win.
I think Wilson rebounds this week, but I am still taking Arizona. The Cardinals are coming off a huge emotional last-second victory and sometimes there can be a letdown after something like that occurs, but I don’t think it happens.
Not this week. Not against a divisional rival. This is a show-me game for Arizona. National game on Thursday for the whole world to see. They’ll show up.
This should be a back and forth affair with lots of points scored. I don’t see how Seattle stops Kyler Murray and company. This feels like one of those, whoever has the ball last wins, types of games. Those are more often than not, one-score games… give me the team getting more than a field goal.
*Line has fluctuated between 3 and 3.5, make sure you get 3.5 (currently -122 on Betrivers.com) One of my favorite features at BetRivers.com is their alternate lines. The Pick: Arizona +3.
Click here for the full list of Cardinals-Seahawks odds.
Steelers (9-0) at Jaguars (1-8). 1 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Steelers -435, Jaguars +360
Spread: Steelers -10
Over/Under: 46.5 points
Over the course of his career, Ben Roethlisberger has been far worse on the road than he has at home. Giving double digits on the road is something you’ll almost never see a sharp doing.
Even while I write this, I’m having second thoughts.
But then, I look over at who is playing QB for the Jaguars. Gardner Minshew is out once again, and while he hasn’t been good this year, he was playing at a hall of fame level compared to what’s behind him in Jake Luton.
So, while I’m not crazy about giving double digits on the road, I just don’t think Jacksonville will score enough to keep this game remotely close. My charts have Pittsburgh -14.5. That’s too much of a discrepancy to ignore. The Pick: Steelers -10.
Click here for the full list of Steelers-Jaguars odds.
Chiefs (8-1) at Raiders (6-3), 8:20 p.m. ET (SNF)
Moneyline: Chiefs -278, Raiders +240
Spread: Chiefs -6.5
Over/Under: 56.5 points
There’s a lot to unpack with this game, and that’s without talking about the COVID-19 outbreak going through the Raiders’ facility.
If you didn’t watch the Raiders vs. Broncos game last week, you’d think it was a complete blowout, but truth be told, it was basically a one-score game heading into the 4th quarter. This coupled with the Raiders win vs Kansas City earlier in the year, and we’ve got a situation where Las Vegas is being a bit overbought. Derek Carr has been good, no doubt, and covering a big number is concerning.
When it comes down to it, we’re getting the defending SuperBowl champions at a good price. The Chiefs are just a far superior team and Andy Reid is notorious for having his teams prepared coming off a bye. Again, I’m giving points on the road which is not something you’d normally see me do. There’s nothing normal about 2020 and more often than not, playing at “home” is not as valuable as perceived. The Pick: Chiefs -6.5.
Click here for the full list of Chiefs-Raiders odds.
Bengals (2-6) at Washington (2-7). 1 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Washington -121, Bengals +106
Spread: Washington -1.5
Over/Under: 46.5 points
Joe Burrow has been nicknamed Joey “Covers” Burrow. Last week was only the second game this season in which he failed to cover the spread. The other game was against a blitz-heavy Ravens defense.
The Alex Smith comeback is a sweet story and it’s impossible not to cheer for him, but I’m here to make us money and when it comes down to it, Burrow is so much better than Smith. He’ll be able to showcase that this week vs a suspect Washington defense.
I’m betting on Cincinnati +1.5, but if you wanted to include this game in a teaser, it would make a lot of sense. I’m considering teasing Cincy to +7.5 and Minnesota down to -1.5, but haven’t decided yet. The Pick: Bengals +1.5.
Click here for the full list of Bengals-Washington odds.
Eagles (3-5-1) at Browns (6-3). 1 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Browns -177, Eagles +155
Spread: Browns -3
Over/Under: 47 points
With Nick Chubb back, the Browns don’t need to rely on Baker Mayfield to win games for them. This is a good thing.
Cleveland is about a Field Goal better than the Eagles on a neutral field. Again, home-field doesn’t mean a lot in 2020, but it’s still worth something.
As evidenced by my bets, I don’t have much confidence in this Eagle’s team. At what point, does Doug Pederson lose the confidence of his players? At what point, do the players lose confidence in Carson Wentz? This Philadelphia squad feels like the Titanic a few moments before they realized there was no escaping the inevitable. Take Cleveland -3 and while you’re at it, bet on the NY Giants to win the NFC East (+300). The Pick: Browns -3.
Click here for the full list of Eagles-Browns odds.
And so, to review here is my TUCK’S TAKE for the NFL Week 11 odds:
NY Giants to win NFC East +300
- Something I’m watching is the Miami Dolphins/Denver Broncos line. I am drinking the Dolphin’s Kool Aid. Their cornerbacks are a nightmare for opposing QBs and Drew Lock has had his issues. The line opened at Miami -2.5 and quickly moved up to 3.5. It’s settled and looks like it might move back down to 3. Full disclosure, I’m on Miami -2.5, and I’d be betting on them at -3. I’m staying away if it’s at 3.5.