With Monday Night Football in the rearview mirror, it’s time to look back at the Week 10 NFL odds recap and take stock of what bets we were right to follow and what bets led us astray.
There are some weeks where it all comes together. Week 10 was one of those weeks.
We went 13-2, only losing our OVER 40.5 receiving yards for Zach Pascal and Baltimore Ravens teaser bets.
Winning 13 of 15 bets is going to make us look very smart, but as always, we will evaluate the decision-making process and not the results.
Let’s look under the hood and examine a bit more.
NFL Week 10 Odds Recap: What We Got Right
- Giants +3: Carson Wentz, Doug Pederson, and the Philadelphia Eagles have been overrated ever since their Super Bowl season. The NFC East is filled with flawed teams and unless we see something drastically change, I’ll continue to bet on dogs when they’re getting more than a field goal.
- Steelers -7.5 (Teased to -1.5): I’ve always said that the NFL season doesn’t start in earnest until Thanksgiving and that awarding championships in mid-November is fruitless. That said, this Steelers team is very good. Chase Claypool adds a dimension to this team they haven’t had since Plaxico Burress was there. That size is so difficult to defend in the red zone and makes Pittsburgh even more dangerous. As good as the Steelers are playing right now, they weren’t going to lay an egg two weeks in a row. Cincinnati was simply overmatched.
- Colts +2 (Teased to +8): Philip Rivers had a great game. He continues to be someone to fade when playing good defenses, but when he’s playing a bad defense, you can ride him and his receivers. Ryan Tannehill struggles continue and against a tough Indianapolis defense, this wasn’t the week Tannehill was able to emerge from his funk.
- Bills +2.5 (Teased to +8.5): With the dynamic yet inconsistent QB play from both teams, we thought the Buffalo vs. Arizona game would be close. With two lead changes in the last 35 seconds, that’s an understatement.
NFL Week 10 Odds Recap: What We Got Wrong?
- Texans +3.5: I’m not a fan of Baker Mayfield (although I was a huge fan of his coming out of college), and his play on Sunday was not inspiring. In fact, if you told me the Browns would only score 10 points, I’d have thought this would’ve been a blowout. But, we were dead wrong on the Houston offense. Maybe, they shouldn’t have traded that DeAndre Hopkins guy? We got lucky that Nick Chubb’s late touchdown run was not to be.
- Seahawks +2 (Teased to +8): After back-to-back poor performances, perhaps Russell Wilson is actually a human being after all. Although, keep this in mind: Wilson has never lost three games in a row (foreshadowing my week 11 wagers?) We overestimated Wilson’s ability to put his team on his shoulders and if not for a garbage late touchdown, we lose this one.
- Chargers +2.5 (Teased to +8.5): The Chargers were never in this game and we got incredibly fortunate to cover the +8.5 teaser bet. Justin Herbert was bound to have a bad game, but where we made a mistake in judgment is evaluating Miami’s defense. Their cornerbacks were lights out against a pair of formidable receivers.
- Ravens -6: Have teams figured out how to play against Lamar Jackson? I’ve pointed out time and time again, that Jackson’s performance in 2020 has paled in comparison to 2019. At this point, it’s not even up for debate. Where we got it wrong is that I thought the Ravens defense would be better equipped to stop what had been an inept Patriots offense for much of the season. Again, it’s not even Thanksgiving yet, but if you’re a Ravens fan, you should be concerned.
NFL Week 10 Odds Recap: What We Learned
- Daniel Jones might just be better than we thought. And with that, the NY Giants might be the best team in the NFC East. At +300, there’s some value here.
- As I mentioned, the Miami Dolphins defense is better than I certainly thought it was. At +300 to win the AFC East, there’s value.
- Tell a future Hall of Famer that the game has passed him by and he’s likely to be motivated to prove you wrong. Aaron Rodgers is playing at a level we haven’t seen in years. Packers vs. Jaguars never felt like it was in danger despite the multiple lead changes. Every time Jacksonville made a push, it looked like the Packers were just one play away, with Rodgers able to strike instantly with a flick of his wrist. Green Bay has issues stopping the run and if an opponent can control the clock and keep Rodgers on the sideline, the Packers are vulnerable. From a betting perspective, it’s important to know that Rodgers might not get the possessions other QBs get because of their run defense.
And lastly, I’m not sure if we learned this or already knew it.
Sometimes, it’s just better to be lucky than good.
On the season, we are now 26-13-1.