Monday Night Football: Saints-Chargers Week 5 Odds, analysis, predictions
Saints-Chargers Week 5 odds are live on BetRivers.com, and you can expect a heavy dose of points when Los Angeles and New Orleans meet up on at 8:20 p.m. ET on Monday Night Football. The Saints are 4-0 ATS, while the Chargers are 3-1. Led by rookie quarterback Justin Herbert, the Chargers are just 1-3, but have lost their three games by an average of 5 ppg. The Chargers took the best shots from the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs and Tom Brady’s Buccaneers, coming up short in overtime against Kansas City and blowing a double-digit halftime lead against Tampa Bay.
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Rob Dauster is here to break down the Saints-Chargers Week 5 odds, and why might be best served to fade the Chargers steam and load up on the home Saints.
BetRivers.com Monday Specials:
- TreQuan Smith and Hunter Henry o149.5 combined Rec. Yds & o1.5 TDs (+525)
- Justin Herbert o299.5 Pass Yds, Keenan Allen o49.5 Rec. Yds, & Chargers win (+400)
- Drew Brees o274.5 Pass Yds., 2+ Pass TDs & Saints Win (+350)
- Saints & Chargers combine for o7.5 total TDs (+275)
- Alvin Kamara & Latavius Murray o2.5 combined TDs (+145)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Saints-Chargers Week 5 Odds
- Week 4: 8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Moneyline: Saints -315, Chargers +265
- Spread: Saints -6.5
- Over/Under: 49.5 points
- Implied Score: Saints 28, Chargers 21.5
Click here for a full list of Saints-Chargers Week 5 odds.
The Chargers are just 1-3 on the season and starting a guy that entered the year as a backup quarterback, but we can’t pretend like this team has been bad. They’ve been competitive in their three losses, which have come by a total of 15 points and includes an overtime loss to the Chiefs. They put up 31 points last week against the Buccaneers, a game they led 24-7 at one point in the first half. And Justin Herbert, their new starting QB, has looked pretty good, all things considered.
Combine that with the fact that the Saints will be without Michael Thomas at a point in time where it seems like Drew Brees arm is about as strong as a whiffle ball bat, and it makes sense that this line has moved Saints (-7) to Saints (-6.5).
And I’m here to tell you to fade the steam.
The Chargers will not only be without starting running back Austin Ekeler, but they will also be missing two of their starting offensive linemen. Joshua Kelly and Justin Jackson have been serviceable in the rotation this season, but they have a total of 187 yards on 60 carries this year; Ekeler was averaging 5.1 yards per carry on the season. And while the Saints have their issues, they are 4th in the NFL in run defense DVOA. This is relevant because I do believe that San Diego needs to be able to run the ball and control the clock if they want to win this game.
Well, the Saints have hit for 30-plus points in three of their four games this season. Brees may not have the arm he once had and Michael Thomas may not be on the field, but New Orleans can still score. The Chargers? They’ve broken 20 points just once this season. That was last week, when they scored three touchdowns of more than 50 yards against the Bucs. You can’t rely on big plays like that, not consistently.
So if you can get the Saints at less than a touchdown, I love it. I will also be on the under for the Chargers team total (21.5) as well as rushing under for Joshua Kelly (49.5).