The 2020 NFL season rolls on, and as the league continues to adjust to “the new normal,” the NFL Week 5 odds reflect the uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 outbreaks.
Week 5 of the 2020 NFL season is an interesting one, thanks to perhaps the most exciting game of the weekend, one in which nobody can state “they saw coming.” Rob Dauster is here to break down the NFL Week 5 odds and point out the bets that are intriguing to him.
Eagles (1-2-1) at Steelers (3-0), 1:00 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Steelers -315, Eagles +265
SPREAD: Steelers -7
OVER/UNDER: 44 points
IMPLIED SCORE: Steelers 26, Eagles 18.5
Betting the unders in the NFL this year has been an easier way to burn money than holding a match to a $100 bill.
So with that in mind, I’m going to tell you to … bet the under when the Steelers take on the Eagles on Sunday afternoon.
The Eagles are not a good football team. They blew a 17-0 lead to Dwayne Haskins and Washington Week 1, they got drubbed by the Rams in Week 2 and they tied the Bengals in Week 3. They did go to San Francisco and beat up on the 49ers last week, but let’s keep that win in perspective: The 49ers may be the most banged-up team in football, and they lost in large part due to a pick-six that was thrown by their back-up quarterback in the fourth quarter.
But what is the most notable about the Eagles heading into their intra-state showdown with Pittsburgh is that their offensive line is young and banged up, and the Steelers may have the best defensive line in football. I’m not sure Carson Wentz is good anymore, and now you’re going to ask him to deal with that kind of pressure while throwing to a receiving corps with guys I have to google? Good luck.
On the other hand, are we really sure the Steelers are all that good? They’re 3-0 right now, and their three wins have come against the Giants, the Broncos, and the Texans. Those teams have combined for a single win: when Denver beat the winless Jets last Thursday night. These aren’t blowout wins, either: 26-16, 26-21, 28-21. The Steelers will have some of their own issues on the offensive line this week, and I’m not entirely convinced that Big Ben isn’t washed.
I think the way this game plays out is that both defensive lines dominate, neither team can sustain many drives and we get something like a 17-13 Pittsburgh win
If this line stays at 7.5, I’d lean towards the Eagles. If it gets down to 6.5, I’d lean towards the Steelers. Either way, I think there is more value on the under.
Click here for the full list of Eagles-Steelers odds.
Panthers (2-2) at Falcons (0-4), 1:00 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Falcons -114, Panthers +100
SPREAD: Falcons -1
OVER/UNDER: 53.5 points
IMPLIED SCORE: Falcons 27.75, Panthers 26.25
Is this the week that Dan Quinn will finally get fired?
We have to figure that it is coming at some point, right?
Look, I know that I said that we should be on the Falcons against the Packers last week, and that Atlanta was just two monumental collapses away from being thought about much differently. But I spent Monday night wondering how in the world I let myself fall into that trap.
The Falcons stink.
They are the only team in the NFL that ranks outside the top 20 in DVOA offensively, defensively and on special teams. Did I mention that their coach might get fired? Or that their best weapons offensively are banged up? Or that they stink?
I won’t be falling into that trap again.
TEASE ME!: I mentioned the Panthers and the Steelers back-to-back for a reason: They are my two favorites candidates to tease this week, the Panthers up to (+7.5) and the Steelers down to (-1.5). That teaser pays out at (-127) on Bet Rivers right now.
Click here for the full list of Panthers-Falcons odds.
Colts (3-1) at Browns (3-1), 4:25 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Colts -112, Browns -108
SPREAD: Colts -1
OVER/UNDER: 47.5 points
IMPLIED SCORE: Colts 24.25, Browns 22.25
This is not going to feel comfortable, but I like the Browns in this spot. A small dog at home — getting as high as +125 ML on Thursday — the Browns seems to have figured things out since an opening day drubbing by the Ravens. They’ve averaged more than 39 points in their last three games, albeit against the Bengals, the Football Team, and the Cowboys.
What is concerning here is that Nick Chubb is going to be out. But Kareem Hunt is a more than adequate backup, and I’m fully in the corner that offensive line play and scheme matters much more than who the running back is, especially when the backup is someone that has performed at the level that Hunt performed when he was with the Chiefs.
Playing at home, I think Cleveland will be able to move the ball. The Colts, on the other hand, rank 24th in DVOA offensively. And they have Philip Rivers. It’s not a fall Sunday if Philip Rivers isn’t throwing a late pick to seal a bad loss for his team.
You can find Browns ML at +100, which is mighty tasty. If you were able to snag Browns +125 early in the week, an extra bonus cookie for you.
Click here for the full list of Colts-Browns odds.
Vikings (1-3) at Seahawks (4-0), 8:20 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Seahawks -335, Vikings +265
SPREAD: Seahawks -7
OVER/UNDER: 57 points
IMPLIED SCORE: Seahawks 31.75, Vikings 24.75
This is going to be a really fun Sunday night game, because neither of these teams appear capable of getting stops.
The Seahawks defense was bad enough through three weeks that they were the first team ever to allow more than 1200 yards passing in the first three games. They are beatable through the air, which is notable because last week, we saw the Vikings go from being a team that ran just 20% play-action through the first three weeks to running 50% play-action last week.
If Minnesota is going to open up their offense, they have the weapons. Justin Jefferson looks awesome. Dalvin Cook and Adam Theilen are awesome. Kirk Cousins is not awesome, but he is certainly capable in the right spots.
So I think the Vikings will be able to move the ball.
And I think that, eventually, Seattle’s run-good in the red zone is going to regress. Through four games, the Seahawks have scored on 87% of their red-zone possessions, which is an entirely unsustainable number. Since 2004, the only team to score on more than 74% of their red-zone possessions was Tennessee last season, who checked in at 77%.
If we know anything anecdotally, it’s that Russell Wilson is built for final-minute, game-winning drives, especially in primetime.
I think we’ll get another one of those on Sunday night.
Click here for the full list of Seahawks-Vikings odds.
NFL WEEK 5 ODDS: Schedule
Updated NFL Week 5 Odds are live on BetRivers.com.
1:00 p.m.: Cardinals (-335) at Jets (+280). Cardinals -7. O/U 47 points.
1:00 p.m.: Eagles (+265) at Steelers (-315). Steelers -7. O/U 44.5 points.
1:00 p.m.: Raiders (+475) at Chiefs (-590). Chiefs -11.5. O.U 55.5 points.
1:00 p.m.: Jaguars (+210) at Texans (-245). Texans -5.5. O/U 54points.
1:00 p.m.: Rams (-60) at Washington (+300). Rams -7.5. O/U 46.5 points.
1:00 p.m.: Panthers (+106) at Falcons (-120). Falcons -1.5. O/U 53.5 points.
1:00 p.m.: Bengals (+480) at Ravens (-590). Ravens -12. O/U 51 points.
4:05 p.m.: Dolphins (+310) at 49ers (-400). 49ers -9. O/U 51.5 points.
4:25 p.m.: Giants (+295) at Cowboys (-345). Cowboys -9. O/U 54 points.
4:25 p.m.: Colts (-118) at Browns (-103). Colts -1. O/U 47.5 points.
8:20 p.m.: (SNF) Vikings (+265) at Seahawks (-335). Seahawks -7. O/U 57 points.
5:00 p.m.: (Mon.) Broncos (+165) at Patriots (-189). Patriots -3.5. O/U 40.5 points.
8:15 p.m.: (MNF) Chargers (+290) at Saints (-345). Saints -7.5. O/U 50.5 points.
8:20 p.m. (Tues.) Bills (TBD) at Titans (TBD). TBD. O/U TBD.
(Odds as of 5 p.m. ET on Friday 10/9. All times ET)
MORE: How to Bet on Football