NFL Week 4 Odds: Betting Preview, trends, analysis
The NFL Week 4 odds are here, and two Sunday matchups feature the biggest spreads and Moneyline underdogs of the early season. If that’s any indication of the excitement that’s yet to come, you don’t want to miss out on the NFL betting Illinois action. It’s an interesting slate of Sunday games, with two undefeated teams on the road, a matchup of winless teams, and another marquee matchup for the Chiefs.
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Oh, those massive lines we mentioned? Washington Football Team (+1000 ML) is 13.5-point home underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens (-7500, and the winless New York Giants (+600 ML) are 13-point road underdogs at the L.A. Rams (-770).
Rob Dauster is here to break down the NFL Week 4 odds, and point out the bets that are intriguing to him.
PATRIOTS (2-1) at CHIEFS (3-0), 4:25 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Chiefs -305, Patriots +260
SPREAD: Chiefs -7
OVER/UNDER: 53 points
IMPLIED SCORE: Chiefs 30, Patriots 23
Is there any coach in the NFL that you would trust more to cover when getting a touchdown than Bill Belichick? I don’t think that there is, so that simple fact alone makes me interested in the Patriots here.
But it may also be the perfect spot because this is absolutely a let-down game for the Chiefs. Last week, they completely dominated the Ravens on Monday night in Baltimore, a game that had all kinds of postseason implications; those are the two best teams in the AFC and only one AFC team is going to get a bye. That not only gave the Chiefs a one-game lead on Baltimore, it gave them the tiebreaker. Essentially, they are now up two games in the race for home-field advantage. That’s enormous.
And now they are on a short week, where Andy Reid is not going to have as much time to prepare all that trickery that he performed on Monday night.
Then throw in the fact that the Pats play the way that you have to play to beat the Chiefs. They want to run the ball, controlling the clock, and keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. They also limit how much they blitz, which is where Mahomes really does his damage. This was the game-plan that the Chargers executed, and they took the Chiefs to overtime. Trust me when I say Belichick knows that.
So I love the spot here for the Pats. I’ll take the touchdown, and do so happily.
Click here for the full list of Chiefs-Patriots odds.
SEAHAWKS (3-0) at DOLPHINS (1-2), 1:00 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Seahawks -245, Dolphins +210
SPREAD: Seahawks -6
OVER/UNDER: 54.5 points
IMPLIED SCORE: Seahawks 30, Dolphins 23.5
My gut says to take the Dolphins here.
The Seahawks traveling across the country to take on a team quarterbacked by Ryan Fitzpatrick in an early kickoff. And the Seahawks have been a total and complete dumpster fire defensively. The Cowboys, the Falcons, and the Patriots all got whatever they wanted offensively against Pete Carroll’s “defense.” The Seahawks are the first team in NFL history to give up more than 1,200 yards passing in the first three games of the season.
Fitzmagic will be in full effect on Sunday. I’m streaming him in my fantasy leagues. I’m starting him in DFS. I am betting the over, no matter what it is, on his yards passing prop. All in, baby.
At the same time, Russell Wilson has been playing like a God. He’s quite literally broken the models when it comes to quarterback touchdown expectation. And Miami’s defense? It’s worse than Seattle’s. So fire away on that over.
And, at the end of the day, is there a quarterback on the planet that you would want, down 13 points with two minutes left, driving against this Seattle defense for the cover?
Embrace the Fitzmagic and take the points.
Click here for the full list of Seahawks-Dolphins odds.
SAINTS (1-2) at LIONS (1-2) , 1:00 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Saints -177, Lions +155
SPREAD: Saints -3.5
IMPLIED SCORE: Saints 29, Lions 25
There are two things to note when considering this game.
- I’m not expecting Michael Thomas to play. If he does, that changes the calculus.
- The Lions are finally getting healthy. Now is the time to buy-low on Matt Stafford and the Lions.
Combine all of that with the fact that Drew Brees appears to have roughly the same arm strength as I do these days, and that’s enough to convince me to buy into a home dog, even if they are coached by Matt Patricia.
Click here for the full list of Saints-Lions odds.
BILLS (3-0) at RAIDERS (2-1), 4:25 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Bills -177, Raiders +155
SPREAD: Bills -3.5
IMPLIED SCORE: Bills 27.75, Raiders 24.75
I think that it’s about time that we faded Josh Allen.
Look, I love the Bills. I have a future on Josh Allen to win MVP at +6000 (Currently +1600 on BetRivers.com). I’m all in on Bills Mafia. One day I would love to jump through a table at a tailgate.
But here’s the truth: The Bills currently own wins over the Dolphins and the Jets, neither of whom are all that good, and they are coming off of a game against the Rams where they blew a huge lead and were gifted a win on a ghost pass interference call.
And now they have to travel across the country to take on the Raiders, who have the ability to exploit the one weakness in Buffalo’s defense: Their defensive line. You can run on the Bills. Las Vegas has a great line and Josh Jacobs.
I’ll take the Raiders and the field goal at home.
Click here to see the full list of Bill-Raiders odds.
NFL WEEK 4 ODDS: Schedule
Updated NFL Week 4 Odds are live on BetRivers.com.
1:00 p.m.: Chargers (+270) at Buccaneers (-315). Buccaneers -7. O/U 43 points.
1:00 p.m.: Browns (+190) at Cowboys (-225). Cowboys -4.5. O/U 56 points.
1:00 p.m.: Ravens (-750) at Washington (+1000). Ravens -13.5. O.U 45.5 points.
1:00 p.m.: Vikings (+165) at Texans (-190). Texans -4. O/U 53.5 points.
1:00 p.m.: Cardinals (-165) at Panthers (+143). Cardinals -3. O/U 51 points.
1:00 p.m.: Colts (-130) at Bears (+115). Colts -2.5. O/U 43 points.
1:00 p.m.: Jaguars (+138) at Bengals (-157). Bengals -3. O/U 49 points.
1:00 p.m.: Saints (-215) at Lions (+185). Saints -4.5. O/U 54.5 points.
1:00 p.m.: Seahawks (-265) at Dolphins (+225). Seahawks -6. O/U 54 points.
4:05 p.m.: Giants (+600) at Rams (-770). Rams -13. O/U 48 points.
4:25 p.m.: Patriots (+240) at Chiefs (-278). Chiefs -6.5. O/U 53 points.
4:25 p.m.: Bills (-165) at Raiders (+145). Bills -3. O/U 52.5 points.
8:20 p.m.: Eagles (+265) at 49ers (-315). 49ers -7. O/U 46 points.
8:20 p.m. (MNF): Falcons (+275) at Packers (-335). Packers -7.5. O/U 56.5 points.
(Odds as of 6 p.m. ET on Friday 10/2. All times ET)
MORE: How to Bet on Football