Packers-Falcons Week 4 odds are live on BetRivers.com but for the first time in over five years, fans and sports bettors get a double-dose of Monday Night Football outside the opening weekend.
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Rob Dauster is here to break down the Packers-Falcons Week 4 odds, and why wide receiver injuries are the biggest key to unlocking big winners.
- Aaron Rodgers & Matt Ryan throw o5.5 TD passes combined (+210)
- Falcons first to 20 points & Packers win (+350)
- Packers -6.5, Chiefs -10.5 & both games o54.5 total points (+1175)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Packers-Falcons Week 4 Odds
- Week 4: 8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Moneyline: Packers -240, Falcons +205
- Spread: Packers -6
- Over/Under: 56.5 points
- Implied Score: Packers 32, Falcons 25
Click here for a full list of Packers-Falcons Week 4 Odds.
Before we get into this breakdown, we need to talk about hamstrings. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Davante Adams are all listed as questionable for this week with hamstring injuries. All three practiced in some form the last two days. Generally speaking, when players practice for two days, they tend to play that week. So I will be thinking about this game as is both are playing.
Now, this game is a prime buy-low, sell-high spot for me.
We discussed this heading into last week’s Sunday Night game against the Saints, and while beating New Orleans was impressive, I still do think that this Packers offense, which is setting records through three weeks, has benefitted from matchups against the Vikings and the Lions, neither of whom had secondaries that were healthy or good. So I’m lower on the Packers than the market.
I am also higher on the Falcons than the market, especially when they are getting a touchdown. Remember, they are 0-3 because they lost to the Seahawks and blew huge fourth-quarter leads to Dallas and Chicago. This team is better than what their record would indicate, and I expect them to be able to move the ball up and down the field against this Packer defense.
It’s a matter of perception. What would this line be if Atlanta hadn’t blown both of those leads and entered this game with a 2-1 record? Would they be four-point dogs? Would they be getting five points? I know that you cannot erase history like that, but to me, this screams “value on the Falcons.”
I’m expecting a shootout in this game, and if there is anything that the Falcons have proven to be capable of this year, it’s the ability to get into shootouts. So I’d lean towards the over even at that number, but I’m far more interested in the Falcons (+6).
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Chiefs-Patriots Week 4 Odds
- Week 4: 7:05 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Moneyline: Chiefs -590, Patriots +475
- Spread: Chiefs -11
- Over/Under: 48.5 points
- Implied Score: Chiefs 29.5, Patriots 19
Click here for the full list of Chiefs-Patriots Odds.
This is what I wrote about this game on Thursday, before the news about Cam Newton testing positive for COVID-19 became public: “Is there any coach in the NFL that you would trust more to cover when getting a touchdown than Bill Belichick?”
There isn’t. The Pats are 20-6 against the spread as road underdogs since 2006, and Belichick is 44-20-1 ATS as an underdog.
And now he’s getting 11 points.
I get it. The Patriots won’t have their starting quarterback for this game. But they will have Brian Hoyer, and while he is hardly what you would consider a good starting quarterback in the NFL, he certainly isn’t green. And he doesn’t need to be great for the Pats to keep this thing close.
New England is going to keep the ball on the ground. They are going to try and chew up clock, and at the same time, keep Patrick Mahomes and this high-flying Kansas City offense on the sideline. This is exactly what the Chargers did when they took KC to overtime. There’s a blueprint, and if I can figure this out, you know Belichick can, too.
I also think this is something of a let-down spot for the Chiefs. Last week, they completely dominated the Ravens on Monday night in Baltimore, a game that had all kinds of postseason implications; those are the two best teams in the AFC and only one AFC team is going to get a bye. That not only gave the Chiefs a one-game lead on Baltimore, it gave them the tiebreaker. Essentially, they are now up two games in the race for home-field advantage. That’s enormous.
So I like the Patriots in this spot.
I think they’ll do enough to keep it close.