With the weekend in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to look back at the Week 12 NFL odds recap and take stock of what bets we were right to follow and what bets led us astray.
David Tuchman is here to analyze the NFL Week 12 odds recap and the bets he picked.
We look really smart on weeks like this and it can be difficult to objectively analyze the decision-making process when we’re crushing. It’s human nature to study more and try to figure out what we did wrong when we lose, but it’s imperative to do when you win too. Did I win because we made good decisions or did we get lucky?
Let’s look under the hood and examine the NFL Week 12 odds a bit more.
NFL Week 12 Odds Recap: What We Got Right?
1. The Jets are an absolute embarrassment and are going to struggle mightily against any legitimate team that isn’t decimated by injuries. Continue betting against them as this team has nothing to play for, as we did taking Dolphins -6.5. With a coach who is auditioning for the sequel to “Dead Man Walking” and in the middle of a global health pandemic, I don’t see anything changing this season.
2. The 49ers (+7.5) are an incredibly well-coached team and even with all their injuries, their defense is still quite solid. The Rams aren’t particularly good or consistent on offense. The power rankings had this closer to a FG. We were able to take advantage of recency bias.
3. Terry McLaurin o73.5 Rec. Yds was my pick of the week. He reached that total in the beginning of the 3rd quarter. I just didn’t understand this line. McLaurin has now surpassed that total 6 straight weeks and 9 out of 10. Occasionally, there’s just a misprice. When it happens, back up the truck.
4. Since we’re already discussing The Football Team, Washington (+3.5 at Cowboys) and Houston (-3 at Lions) won in complete blowouts and while we certainly didn’t see that coming, we were on the right side of both.
5. Since we’re on the subject of the Texans: Will Fuller (070.5 Rec. Yds) has a great QB throwing to him and when he’s got a favorable matchup, he’s money. It’s important to research the likely cornerback/WR matchups on a weekly basis. This one was never in doubt.
6. Chris Godwin (o60.5 Rec. Yds) didn’t do much in the first half of the Bucs’ loss to the Chiefs, but understanding game scripts is important when you bet on player props. While it’s impossible to know exactly how a game will play out, It wasn’t hard to imagine Kansas City scoring a lot and Tom Brady throwing the ball a lot to get back in the game.
7. So, we won on the Bengals (+6 vs. Giants), but to say we got it right would be generous. We were lucky to get a garbage TD cover. That said, this was a pretty close game most of the way which is how we thought it would play out.
NFL Week 12 Odds Recap: What We Got Wrong
1. I’ve been off about the Green Bay Packers and the NFC North. I suggested that maybe the Packers were overrated, but one of my takeaways from their Sunday Night Football throttling of the Bears (+9.5) was how impressive their defense looked. Don’t get me wrong, their run defense is still their Achilles heel. I’m just not sure if there are many teams built to exploit it. Aaron Rodgers is playing at an elite level and they are so clearly the class of the NFC North, I feel silly ever doubting them.
2. I didn’t bet on Las Vegas, but my thought process on why we liked Calvin Ridley (075.5 Rec. Yds) this week was predicated on the Raider’s ability to score. My thesis was simple. Ridley had a good matchup, the total in the game was high (54.5) and with Derek Carr playing as well as he has recently, Matt Ryan will have to throw the ball in the 4th quarter to keep up. It certainly didn’t work out that way. The Falcons dominated and despite Julio Jones sitting this one out, Ridley was only targeted 9 times, catching 6 for 50.
NFL Week 12 Odds Recap: What We Learned
- Playing QB is even harder than we thought. I still can’t believe I wasn’t on the Saints this weekend. Kendall Hinton is a legitimate athlete and football player, and yet, his best efforts were futile.
- Ryan Tannehill has 45 touchdowns and 9 interceptions since taking over the Titans starting QB job from Marcus Mariota last season. Couple that with Henry running over the opposition and you’ve got a real dangerous team come January.
- I’m not ready to bail on Tampa Bay just yet, but I was a bit premature when I anointed them as the class of the NFC.
Wins: Washington +3.5, Texans -2.5, Bengals +6, Dolphins -6.5, 49ers +7.5, Terry McLaurin o73.5 Rec. Yds, Chris Godwin o60.5 Rec. Yds, Will Fuller o70.5 Rec. Yds.
Losses: Bears +9.5, Calvin Ridley o75.5 Rec. Yds