Tuck’s Take: NFL Week 12 Odds, Predictions and Preview
The NFL Week 12 odds are up at BetRivers.com and with just seven weeks remaining before the start of the playoffs, teams — and bookmakers — are tightening things up.
Longtime broadcaster and gambling expert David Tuchman is here every week to preview the NFL odds and break down the picks he is thinking about.
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I’m only now waking up from a stuffing-induced coma to find out we went 4-0 on Thanksgiving! Now I know what I’m thankful for.
No time to pat myself on the back although I kinda just did that huh? Awkward. My bad.
Let’s move on.
NFL WEEK 12 ODDS: TUCK’S TAKE
Giants (3-7) at Bengals (2-7-1), 1 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Giants -265, Bengals +225
Spread: Giants -6
Over/Under: 44 points
No Burrow, no Bueno. I don’t want to go into an entire diatribe about how fantastic Burrow was, but if you’re a Bengals fan, and who isn’t, you’ve got a lot to be optimistic about going forward.
But here and now, we’re dealing with a team that is now without their #1 RB and #1 franchise QB.To say there’s a black cloud hanging over Cincinnati right now would be an understatement and that’s where we find value. Overreactions, recency bias – these are words we live by when we place our bets.
Brandon Allen will be taking over for Ryan Finley who took over for Joe Burrow. Cincinnati is a mess, but enough about them.
This week, they’re home and they play against the NY Giants who should never be almost a TD favorite over anyone, especially on the road. This is the classic overreaction to the NY Giants playing decent as of late and the carnage that’s going on in Cincinnati.
On the road, I’m fading this Giants squad. The Pick: Bengals +6 (-110)
Click here for the full list of Giants-Bengals odds.
Dolphins (6-4) at Jets (0-10), 1 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Dolphins -335, Jets +285
Spread: Dolphins -7
Over/Under: 45 points
We got lucky last week when we didn’t bet on the Dolphins. After looking so good for weeks, they were terrible in Denver.
The defense couldn’t stop the run, the offensive line couldn’t stop the pass rush – it was a come back to earth game for Miami. Regardless of who’s under center, this is a team that believes in themselves. Last week left them with a bad taste in their mouth and the best cure for that? Enter stage left, the hapless, NY Jets – still somehow helmed by Adam Gase.
We’ve made a lot of money betting against the NY Jets this season (3-7 against the spread) Why fix what ain’t broke? The Pick: Dolphins -6.5 (-122).
Click here for the full list of Dolphins-Jets odds.
49ers (4-6) at Rams (7-3), 4:05 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Rams -305, 49ers +255
Spread: Rams -6.5
Over/Under: 44 points
I find myself betting on bad QBs because the public gets scared off and there tends to be a bit of an overreaction.
Nick Mullins is not a good QB and putting my money on him to stay upright and somehow move the ball vs the always ferocious Aaron Donald is unsettling, but I am forever in search of value.
Power ranking charts suggest this should be a 3.5 point spread on a neutral field which, with no fans and the close proximity of the teams, it essentially is.
The game has a very low total (44.5) and asking the Rams to cover a large spread when a lot of points aren’t expected is a big ask.
Lastly, despite the injuries, the SF defense is actually playing quite well and should keep the pedestrian Rams offense from blowing this one open.
We’ll use the alternative lines at Betrivers.com to get the line up to over a TD. The Pick: 49ers +7.5 (-143).
Click here for the full list of 49ers-Rams odds.
And so, to review here is my TUCK’S TAKE for the NFL Week 12 odds:
- Bengals +6
- Dolphins -6.5
- 49ers +7.5