Week 11 Odds Recap

With the weekend in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to look back at the Week 11 NFL odds recap and take stock of what bets we were right to follow and what bets led us astray.

David Tuchman is here to analyze the NFL Week 11 odds recap and the bets he picked. 

There are some weeks where it all comes together. Week 10 was one of those weeks. Week 11, however, was not one of those weeks.

Following a 13-2 week with a 2-3 weekend is not exactly what the doctor ordered. Add our extra picks we made on Thursday props, and we were 2-6 this week. 

Simply put, ugh. 

Overall we’re at 28-19-1 

What’d we get wrong?

A lot. 

Let’s look under the hood and examine a bit more.

NFL Week 11 Odds Recap: What We Got Right? 

1. Steelers -10: We didn’t think all that much of Jake Luton’s prospects this week playing against what is arguably the top defense in the league. While Pittsburgh’s’ offense took a while to get rolling, there was really no doubt we were going to be cashing this ticket in.

2. Browns -3: The line ended up closing at -2.5 and if you follow me on Twitter, you’d have seen that this was my game of the week. I LOVED Cleveland -2.5 not so much because I think the Browns are a particularly good team, but Philadelphia is a train wreck. Head coach, Doug Pederson and QB, Carson Wentz have been living off that Super Bowl season which now seems like decades ago. Even without Myles Garrett, the Browns defense dominated. Carson Wentz’s inept play was the story of the game. Couple that with a running game in Cleveland that is quite impressive and this game was really never in doubt despite the close score.

NFL Week 11 Odds Recap: What We Got Wrong

1. Arizona +3. Let’s start with Thursday where we got the entire game script wrong. Kyler Murray was supposed to have his way with a mediocre Seattle defense and that would force Russell Wilson to throw throw throw. That didn’t happen.

And because of that, Russell Wilson didn’t come close to going OVER the passing number. We thought D.K. Metcalf would dominate and it looked that way early as he caught a 25-yard TD before catching a 41-yard reception that was nullified by a holding penalty. Unfortunately not much else was thrown in his direction.

I will point out, I still think he’s virtually unguardable and if Seattle would be less conservative, we’d see that play out. We underestimated Jamal Adams’ effect on Arizona’s running game, specifically Kyler Murray.

As I had mentioned, Murray had surpassed 60 yards rushing in four consecutive games, but it was clear that containing his legs was the gameplan for Seattle. Give them credit and me the L

2. Chiefs -6.5. Andy Reid coming off a bye, The Chiefs avenging an earlier loss, Derek Carr isn’t good enough to keep up with the offensive firepower in Kansas City.

All the reasons for me taking KC -6.5.

I’m not sure what to make of Derek Carr because he has never approached this level of play before in his career. Regardless, at this point, I need to look at the facts. And right now, Carr is playing at an extremely high level and betting against him is proving to be quite foolish.

Occasionally, the first game between teams can be somewhat misleading for a variety of reasons and other times it can be indicative of how those two teams matchup. It’s my job to figure out which is which. In this case, I clearly didn’t give Las Vegas enough credit when they defeated Kansas City back in week 5. 

For what it’s worth and it’s worth plenty, we got KC -6.5 and the line closed at -8, so that’s certainly a good thing. Getting a better line might not help in the short term because of variance, but over the long haul, it’ll add a lot of money to your bottom line. 

3. Dolphins -3. We lucked out on this one, because we wanted Miami -2.5 or maybe 3 and stayed away from it because it was at 3.5.

Nonetheless, we got this one wrong. 

We thought it would be Miami’s cornerbacks giving Drew Lock headaches all day long, but instead it was Vic Fangio and the Broncos defense who dominated the game.

Before it was all said and done, Tua found himself on the bench and the Dolphin’s defense had no answer for Denver’s running game.

We should’ve lost this one and will count our lucky stars that the line didn’t move.

 4. Bengals +1.5. This game was marred by the season-ending injury to Rookie QB, Joe Burrow early in the 3rd quarter. Hard to know how this game would’ve turned out otherwise. My thesis on this game was that Burrow is a far better QB than Alex Smith and I certainly think that was the case from what we saw. 

Unfortunately, Injuries happen and when it’s a QB, it’s such a big deal. There’s not much you can do in these cases. 

NFL Week 11 Odds Recap: What We Learned

  • Joe Burrow had a phenomenal rookie season behind what was really an abysmal offensive line in Cincinnati. Why do I bring this up? Well, the offensive line is still abysmal and the QB behind Burrow isn’t Burrow. Things could get really ugly in Cincinnati.
  • Taysom Hill wasn’t terrible. I think many of us were skeptical of his ability to throw the ball accurately. To be honest, I really didn’t believe they were going to use him the entire game and not Jameis Winston. I’m still not sold on him being a good starting QB in the NFL, but can he do it for 3-4 weeks? Sure. He’s kind of what we hoped Tim Tebow would be.
  • Philip Rivers will continue to perform against mediocre defenses, but be wary when he faces off against a talented unit.