Group F picks & predictions

Group play at Euro 2020 rolls along and is proud to provide a wide variety of Italy-Switzerland odds and Turkey-Wales odds for Wednesday, June 16. With every team having played its first match of the tournament, Group A is the first to start their second of three games. Italy, the heavy favorites to win the group, face Switzerland, which drew against Wales, in a match between the two best teams in the group.

Longtime writer Rob Dauster, the co-founder of The Field of 68 Podcast Network is here to provide his thoughts on the Italy-Switzerland odds and drops knowledge on the best bets worth a wager at for the two Group A matches on Wednesday, June 16. Place sports bets online from the comfort of your own home with us!

Before we get to the Italy-Switzerland odds, and the Turkey-Wales preview here’s a look at the Group A futures for Euro 2020.

GROUP A: Italy -770, Switzerland +950, Wales +1900, Turkey +4500


ITALY (1-0-0) vs. SWITZERLAND (0-0-1), 3 p.m. ET 

ITALY: -159
DRAW: +280
Over 2.5: +128
Under 2.5: -155
Click here for the full list of Italy-Switzerland odds.

Italy was dominant against an overmatched Turkey side in their opener, winning 2-0. Switzerland was almost as dominant against Wales, the difference being that Kieffer Moore found a way to head home a late goal and the Swiss had an 87th minute winner ruled out by VAR. Switzerland won that match on xG 2.02-0.5.

And to be frank, I actually think the Swiss match up with Italy really well. Where Turkey’s midfield was ineffective and their striker couldn’t move, the Swiss have some talent that should be able to create some issues on the counter. Breel Embolo is a specimen, a physical bully with the strength to push Leondro Bonucci and Giorgi Chielini around and the pace to leave the aging CBs in the dust. As a Spurs fan, I’m morally opposed to saying good things about Granit Xhaka, but his ability to kick the hell out of whoever he’s tasked with marking in the midfield should come in handy in this match. Shaqiri should be able to play passes through to Embolo, and when combined with a back five that should help limit some of Italy’s wide attacking threat, I like the Swiss to knick a point here.

Switzerland (+0.5) is (+138) right now. Switzerland (+1) is (-136).

I know I told you to toss some money on an Italy future, and trust me, I’ve come around on just how good and dangerous this Italian side is.

But I do think the value in this matchup is on the Swiss, and I will be invested in them in this spot.

TURKEY (0-1-0) vs. WALES (0-0-1), 12 p.m. ET

TURKEY: +135
WALES: +240
DRAW: +210
Over 2.5: +165
Under 2.5: -205
Click here for the full list of Turkey-Wales Odds

These tournaments get good when the matches start having a certain level of urgency, and both Wales and Turkey find themselves in a position where they really, really need a win.

Wales is coming off of a 1-1 draw against Switzerland, a draw that probably wasn’t deserved — the Swiss dominated that match — but did put them in a position to be able to make a run at advancing out of the group. That would likely require a win on Wednesday, as anything less means that the Welsh will have to take points off of Italy. That’s not easy.

Turkey, on the other hand, looked dreadful against the Italians. They neither had the midfield talent to play through Italy’s defense or the speed to play over the top, and the result was a 3-0 loss in a match where Turkey managed just 0.2 xG, the lowest total of any team in the first round of group play.

Now, my plan heading into this group was to buy the dip on Turkey when they inevitably lost to Italy. This is a squad with talent. They’ve beaten the Netherlands. They drew Germany and Croatia. They’ve also had some ugly losses, but we know what their ceiling is when they hit it. I also do believe that playing against a Welsh side that is no where near as adept at controlling possession as the Italians will allow some of that talent to shine through.

So I do think the value here is on the Turkish side. I think it’s worth considering Turkey (-0.25) at (-103) to get some protection if it turns out this really is a team that just cannot generate chances.

At the same time, I think the under is worth a look as well, but I don’t love it. Turkey’s defense gave up 19 points in 11 matches since Euro qualifying ended, and they’ve had some big scoring outputs of their own. I’m still leaning on the side of their opening match saying more about Italy than about Turkey.


Wednesday, June 16
9:00 a.m. ET: Finland vs. Russia (Group B)
12:00 p.m. ET: Turkey vs. Wales (Group A)
3:00 p.m. ET: Italy vs. Switzerland (Group A)

Thursday, June 17
9:00 a.m. ET: Ukraine vs. North Macedonia (Group C)
12:00 p.m. ET: Denmark vs. Belgium (Group B)
3:00 p.m. ET: Netherlands vs. Austria (Group C)

Friday, June 18
9:00 a.m. ET: Sweden vs. Slovakia (Group E)
12:00 p.m. ET: Croatia vs. Czech Republic (Group D)
3:00 p.m. ET: England vs. Scotland (Group D)

Saturday, June 19
9:00 a.m. ET: Hungary vs. France (Group F)
12:00 p.m. ET: Portugal vs. Germany (Group F)
3:00 p.m. ET: Spain vs. Poland (Group E)

Sunday, June 20
12:00 p.m. ET: Italy vs. Wales (Group A)
12:00 p.m. ET: Switzerland vs. Turkey (Group A)

Monday, June 21
12:00 p.m. ET: North Macedonia vs. Netherlands (Group C)
12:00 p.m. ET: Ukraine vs. Austria (Group C)
3:00 p.m. ET: Finland vs. Belgium (Group B)
3:00 p.m. ET: Russia vs Denmark (Group B)

Tuesday, June 22
3:00 p.m. ET: Croatia vs. Scotland (Group D)
3:00 p.m. ET: Czech Republic vs. England (Group D)

Wednesday, June 23:
12:00 p.m. ET: Slovakia vs. Spain (Group E)
12:00 p.m. ET: Sweden vs. Poland (Group E)
3:00 p.m. ET: Germany vs. Hungary (Group F)
3:00 p.m. ET: Portugal vs. France (Group F)