On Saturday afternoon, the 2021 Final Four tips off with an all-Texas matchup, and BetRivers.com is proud to provide a wide variety of Baylor-Houston odds, teasers, game, and player props. The Baylor Bears defeated No. 3 seed Arkansas in the South Regional Final, while Houston defeated No. 12 seed Oregon State in the Midwest Regional Final. The current Baylor-Houston odds have the Bears as five-point favorites. Baylor vs. Houston tips off at 5:14 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 2 and will be broadcast on CBS.
Longtime national college basketball writer Rob Dauster, the co-founder of The Field of 68 Network, previews the Baylor-Houston odds and drops knowledge on the best bets worth a wager.
BOOSTED BETS: FINAL FOUR SPECIALS
- Houston +4.5, Over 135.5 total points vs. Baylor. Was +295. Now +335
FINAL FOUR PICKS: BAYLOR-HOUSTON ODDS
#1 BAYLOR BEARS (26-2) vs. #2 HOUSTON COUGARS (28-3)
TIME/TV: 5:14 p.m. ET, CBS
MONEYLINE: Baylor -220 ML, Houston +175 ML
SPREAD: Baylor -5
OVER/UNDER: 134.5 points
Click here for the full list of Baylor-Houston odds.
BAYLOR-HOUSTON BETTING TRENDS: Baylor has been the most profitable team of the NCAA Tournament, and the public continues to back the Bears, albeit not as strongly as the previous weekends. Bettors are backing Baylor to win with 69% of the ML handle and 66% of ML bets. By comparison, Baylor was backed by 75% of the ML handle and 75% of the ML bets against Arkansas in the Elite Eight. The Bears are also backed by 81% of the spread handle and 77% of spread bets. Against Arkansas, Baylor was backed by 84% of the spread handle and 81% of the spread bets. Baylor is 3-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, while Houston is 2-2 ATS. The largest current game bet is a $10,000 wager by an Illinois BetRivers.com bettor on Baylor ML (-222) that has a potential payout of $14,500.
BAYLOR-HOUSTON PREVIEW: This is an absolutely fascinating matchup of two of the toughest and most physical teams that you are ever going to see on a college basketball court.
Both of these teams pride themselves on their ability to play that style of basketball, to be the team that not only wins the game, but that wins the fight as well. They both rely on playing tough, physical defense. They both force turnovers. They both pound the offensive glass. They both are willing to be a little bit foul prone if it means that they can make plays on the defensive end of the floor.
And here’s the key: They both are fine playing small because their smaller lineup is as strong and as physical as the bigger lineups they’ve faced throughout the season.
Now, here’s the thing about this game: Giving Houston five points is way too many points. I make this line around Baylor (-1.5) or (-2), and that has everything to do with the fact that I really respect what the Cougars are defensively and on the glass. I know they’ve had an easy road to the Final Four. I know they haven’t really played anyone this season. But they are the best offensive rebounding team in college basketball, and they are one of the few teams with the athletes and the perimeter weapons to be able to matchup with Baylor’s guards.
One other thing that I’ll note is this: Houston played Texas Tech earlier this season and big-boyed them for most of the game. Texas Tech and Baylor play the same style of no-middle defense, and the game plan that Kelvin Sampson drew up to beat it — short baseline drives, inducing the help but avoiding the double, allowing big guards to pick out their pass — will work on Saturday. I like this matchup for Houston.
But here’s my biggest issue with betting on this game — it is very much going to be a game that is determined by three-point shooting variance. Houston takes 42.4 percent of their field goals from beyond the arc, and 36 percent of their points are scored off of threes. Baylor takes 38.4 percent of their field goals from beyond the arc, leads the nation in three-point shooting, and gets 36 percent of their points off of threes.
Houston’s defense is built around denying paint touches and inducing contested threes. Baylor can hit contested threes.
So while I really do like the Houston side here, it’s a stay away for me, personally.