Group F picks & predictions

The Euro 2020 final between England and Italy will be played on Sunday, and here is a betting preview. 

It took us 51 matches and a month to get here, but we are finally here!

 

A Euro 2020 (that is played in 2021) champion will be crowned in London at Wembley Stadium on Sunday afternoon, as Italy — the visitors, as it turns out — will be taking on England. The Italians advanced to the final after knocking off Spain in penalties, while England survived a worldie of a free kick from Denmark’s Martin Daamsgaard to earn a chance at their first major international title since 1966.

So where does the value lie? Is football coming home?

Longtime writer Rob Dauster, the co-founder of The Field of 68 Podcast Network is here to provide his Euro 2020 quarterfinal picks & predictions the first two matches of the quarterfinals.

Read the updated below before you get started with PA online sports betting  for the following matches!

EURO 2020 CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: England (-115), Italy (+100)

EURO 2020 FINAL PICKS, PREDICTIONS AND BETTING PREVIEW: England vs. Italy

England vs. Italy, 3 p.m. ET

  • ENGLAND: +155
  • ITALY: +215
  • DRAW: +200
  • Over 2.5: +175
  • Under 2.5: -215

Sunday’s matchup is going to be a fascinating one between two countries that are looking to regain some former glory.

England has not won an international title since 1966, when they won the World Cup. They have never won the Euros. Italy lost in the 2012 Euro Final and won the 2006 World Cup, but most recently they missed out on qualifying for the 2018 World Cup.

It’s been a while since two of the nations that we most associate with football glory have, you know, actually experienced it.

As far as the matchup itself is concerned, it really comes down to something simple: Do you think that the Italians are going to be able to breakdown an English side that has allowed a total of 3.6 xG in six matches in this tournament? The Three Lions have conceded a single goal in those six matches, and that came on a stunning, 28-yard free kick from the Danes in the semifinal. Outside of Thomas Muller’s glorious miss in the Round of 16, the English really haven’t even conceded big chances.

The key to winning international football tournaments is to play as boring and defensive as possible. It’s not like club football. You don’t see teams pressing all over the pitch. These teams don’t have the time to drill themselves to be able to play that style effectively, and they don’t have the legs — these summer tournaments are played in the heat after grueling club seasons come to an end.

That’s why England is so effective.

But here’s the catch: The Italians have two, if not three wins in this tournament that are more impressive than any win that England has landed. Both Spain and Belgium are better than Germany. England’s other wins in the knockout rounds came against Ukraine and Denmark. Hell, Italy’s win over Switzerland may be better than England’s win over the Germans.

What’s important to note here, however, is that Italy will be playing without Leonardo Spinazzola, who tore his achilles in the quarterfinals. He was their primary ball-progressor on the left, and his presence allowed Italy’s attacking forwards to play in the channels. Those channels are where England can be vulnerable, and while Emerson had his moments against Spain, there’s a reason why A) he doesn’t start for club or country, and B) the semis where the worst possession performance Italy’s had in this tournament.

Truth be told, I just don’t see how Italy scores here. They’re going to have to try and play through the middle of the park, and the English midfield trio of Mason Mount, Declan Rice and Kalvin Phillips can make that very difficult to do.

Now throw in the fact that there are going to be chances for Harry Kane to play Raheem Sterling, Bukayo Saka and Jadon Sancho in behind Italy’s aging centerbacks, and that England has game-changers like Jack Grealish and Phil Foden coming off their bench, and I just think England finds a way to win this title.

That said, I do think that we’re looking at a match that is likely going to be slow, grind-it-out and, low-scoring, but there’s just no value on the under at this price. The fact that it will be lowscoring pushes me off of picking a side in regular time as well. A 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline after 90 minutes seems pretty likely.

My pick is to take England (-115) to lift the Euro 2020 trophy.

I also think that it is worth hedging your bet if you are holding an Italy future that is +800 or better, like I am. I will be locking in a 2.3 unit bet on England at (-115), which guarantees a 1.0 unit profit with a chance to win 5.7 units if Italy finds a way to get this done.

Click here for the full list of Spain-Italy odds.

EURO 2020 SCHEDULE

Friday, June 11
Italy 3, Turkey 0 (Group A)

Saturday, June 12
Belgium 3, Russia 0 (Group B)
Finland 1, Denmark 0 (Group B)
Wales 1, Switzerland 1 (Group A)

Sunday, June 13
Austria 3, North Macedonia 1 (Group C)
England 1, Croatia 0 (Group D)
Netherlands 3, Ukraine 2 (Group C)

Monday, June 14
Czech Republic 2, Scotland 0 (Group D)
Slovakia 2, Poland 1 (Group E)
Spain 0, Sweden 0 (Group E)

Tuesday, June 15
France 1, Germany 0 (Group F)
Portugal 3, Hungary 0 (Group F)

Wednesday, June 16
Italy 3, Switzerland 0 (Group A)
Russia 1, Finland 0 (Group B)
Wales 2, Turkey 0 (Group A)

Thursday, June 17
Belgium 2, Denmark 1 (Group B)
The Netherlands 2, Austria 0 (Group C)
Ukraine 2, North Macedonia 1 (Group C)

Friday, June 18
England 0, Scotland 0 (Group D)
Croatia 1, Czech Republic 1 (Group D)
Sweden 1, Slovakia 0 (Group E)

Saturday, June 19
France 1, Hungary 1 (Group F)
Germany 4, Portugal 2 (Group F)
Spain 1, Poland 1 (Group E)

Sunday, June 20
Italy 1, Wales 0 (Group A)
Switzerland 3, Turkey 1 (Group A)

Monday, June 21
Austria 1, Ukraine 0(Group C)
Belgium 2, Finland 0 (Group B)
Denmark 4, Russia 1(Group B)
The Netherlands 3, North Macedonia 0 (Group C)

Tuesday, June 22
Croatia 3, Scotland 1 (Group D)
England 1, Czech Republic 0 (Group D)

Wednesday, June 23:
Spain 5, Slovakia 0
Sweden 3, Poland 2
Portugal 2, France 2
Germany 2, Hungary 2

ROUND OF 16

Saturday, June 26

Denmark 4, Wales 0
Italy 2, Austria 1

Sunday, June 27

Czech Republic 2, Netherlands 0
Belgium 1, Portugal 0

Monday, June 28

Spain 5, Croatia 3
Switzerland 3, France 3 (5-4)

Tuesday, June 29

England 2, Germany 0
Ukraine 2, Sweden 1

Friday, July 2

Switzerland 1, Spain 1 (1-3)
Belgium 1, Italy 2

Saturday, July 3

Czech Republic 1, Denmark 2
Ukraine 0, England 4

Tuesday, July 6

Italy 1, Spain 1 (4-2)

Wednesday, July 7

England 2, Denmark 1