A week besieged by postponements and cancelations has rocked the college basketball schedule off its bearings, but the Thursday, December 10 CBB lines reveal one great ranked matchup and an interesting value-play in the badlands.
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Rob Dauster, a longtime national college basketball writer, and co-founder of the Field of 68 Podcast Network, analyzes the December 10 CBB lines, with a focus on the ranked showdown between No. 24 San Diego State and No. 23 Arizona State.
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#24 SAN DIEGO STATE (4-0) at #23 ARIZONA STATE (3-1), 10 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Arizona State -143, San Diego State +120
SPREAD: Arizona State -4.5
OVER/UNDER: 142.5 points
Click here for the full list of SDSU-Arizona State odds.
The key to this matchup is going to be the health of Arizona State’s Marcus Bagley, a 6-foot-8, 215-pound freshman wing that strained his calf last week against Cal. According to HoopLens.com, Arizona State is scoring 1.18 points per possession in the 146 possessions that Bagley has been on the floor. They are scoring 0.87 points per possession in the 82 possessions that he was off the floor. It’s a small sample size, I know, but in a 70 possession basketball game, that’s the difference of about 20 points.
There’s a reason for this. He’s really the only big wing on Bobby Hurley’s roster, and he is also the one perimeter weapon that is really effective without the ball in his hands. Remy Martin, Alonzo Verge, Josh Christopher, those guys dribble the air out of the ball. Bagley is the guy that can space and guard up. He matters.
Bagley is officially questionable. I’ve been told that he is going to give it a go in warmups and see how it feels. Even if he plays, I doubt he’ll be at 100 percent. So I’m going to be on SDSU (+4.5) regardless, but I will be intrigued by the moneyline if we get word Bagley is out.
NORTH DAKOTA STATE (0-4) vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (3-2), 9 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: SDSU -435, NDSU +330
SPREAD: SDSU -8.5
OVER/UNDER: 143.5 points
Click here for the full list of NDSU-SDSU odds.
I love the Bisons in this spot.
NDSU is 0-4 on the season right now, but they are coming off of a pair of close losses to Creighton and Kansas, both of which came on the road. They were able to control the tempo in both of those games, and given that they want to play at a slower pace and keep the game low scoring, this is big for a rivalry matchup with the Jackrabbits.
This game is going to be played in the 60s, and that many points in a game that is that low-scoring has some real value. NDSU’s biggest issue this season has been that the guys they want shooting jumpers have been missing those jumpers. That will positively regress eventually.
8.5 is just too many points in a game between the two teams that have won the last nine Summit League titles.