The 2021 NFL betting season hits Week 7 as Denver heads to Cleveland, and the injury news regarding the Browns’ offense has significantly impacted the Browns-Broncos betting odds throughout the week. The Browns opened as 4.5-point favorites and -215 on the moneyline. But with Nick Chubb already ruled out, Kareem Hunt ruled out earlier in the week, and Baker Mayfield not expected to play, the line has shifted by a field goal in the Broncos’ direction. Even the O/U has shifted significantly, opening at 42.5 points and dropping to 40.5 now that Case Keenum is expected to start at QB for Cleveland. Although the Browns are the slight betting favorites, the public is leaning toward the Broncos to win with 1% of the money and 51% of the bets, while the spread is nearly a pick ’em according to the public.
Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview the Browns-Broncos betting odds for Week 7 and drops knowledge on the best bets worth a wager.
BROWNS-BRONCOS BETTING ODDS: WEEK 7
CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-3) vs. DENVER BRONCOS (3-3)
DATE/TIME: Thursday, October 21, 8:20 p.m.
CHANNEL: NFL Network/FOX
MONEYLINE: Browns -117 ML, Broncos +102 ML
SPREAD: Browns -1.5
BROWNS-BRONCOS BETTING ODDS: PUBLIC TRENDS
Browns Moneyline: 39% money 49% bets
Browns Spread: 48% money, 49% bets
Over: 38% money, 55% bets
With each injury, the line gets closer and closer to a pick’em. The pre-season look ahead line was around a touchdown.
Cleveland is without their dynamic backfield duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, both legitimate starters on nearly any team in the NFL and their starting QB, Baker Mayfield. You can make an argument that RBs don’t move lines and Mayfield has been so bad this season, it’s hardly a downgrade to Case Keenum.
In fact, the injuries that concern me more with regards to Cleveland is to their offensive line. Denver is coming off three straight losses, but with Von Miller and company coming to town, having injuries on the offensive line is less than ideal.
If in an office pool, I’d take Denver plus the points, but I have no conviction on this one. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Case Keenum had one of his “earn millions because teams are so desperate for a QB” type of games and Myles Garrett wreaked havoc on the Denver offensive gameplan.
But, if I was forced to bet, I’d be on Denver. Teddy Bridgewater is 19-2 as a road dog and I certainly don’t feel comfortable betting against that trend.
Where I am putting my money is on the Total and one prop.
The total moved down to 40.5 after it was announced that Baker Mayfield would miss the game. This feels like an unnecessary adjustment considering how bad Mayfield has played this season.
Teddy Bridgewater is a bit banged up himself, but he’s expected to play. 40.5 is just a ridiculously low total in today’s game.
The Pick: OVER 40.5
We mentioned the injuries to Cleveland’s offensive line. Couple that with Von Miller coming out and saying he was going to have a big game. Yeah, that’s right, he called his shot. He literally said, “I’m gonna have a great game, I’m gonna go out there and play well, get a couple sacks.”
If Von Miller says it, I feel like maybe it’ll come true. He seems like a trustworthy dude.
The Pick: Von Miller OVER 0.5 sacks