Astros-Red Sox Betting Odds

Houston and Boston are the last two teams remaining in the American League, and with the ALCS beginning on Friday, October 15, its time to break down the Astros-Red Sox betting odds for Game 1 and the entire series.

Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman has been picking MLB games all season long and is here to analyze the Astros-Red Sox betting odds as Game 1 gets going in Houston on Friday night.

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GAME DATE/TIME: Friday, October 15. 8:07 p.m. ET, FOX
STARTING PITCHERS: Framber Valdez (HOU, 11-6, 3.14 ERA) vs. Chris Sale (BOS, 5-1, 3.16 ERA)
MONEYLINE: Astros -141 ML, Red Sox +125 ML
RUN LINE: Astros -1 (-106), Red Sox +1 (-120)
TOTAL: 8.5 runs (-105/-113)

Astros ML: 78% money, 63% bets
Astros Spread: 92% money, 75% bets
Over: 86% money, 85% bets

Winner: Astros (-148), Red Sox (+112)
4-0: Astros (+1000), Red Sox (+1700)
4-1: Astros (+525), Red Sox (+850)
4-2: Astros (+400), Red Sox (+500)
4-3: Astros (+425), Red Sox (+525)


The 2021 ALCS between the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox is going to be one helluva series.  The Red Sox beat the Yankees and the Rays. They took care of business in the AL East and now face the Astros who dispatched the White Sox in four games. I honestly have no idea who will win this series. I think it will go seven games, and I think a metric ton of runs will be scored. I don’t think you can go wrong betting the over in each game.

Look I could give you stats as the day is long. We know both teams can hit. The Sox boast:

  •     Xander Bogaerts: .295-23-79; .863 OPS
  •     Rafael Devers: .279-38-113, .890 OPS
  •     Hunter Renfroe: .259-31-96, .816 OPS
  •     JD Martinez: .286-28-99, .867 OPS.

The Astros, meanwhile, led the AL in runs, hits, average and OBP and counter with:

  •     Yuli Gurriel: .319-15-81, .846 OPS
  •     Jose Altuve: .278-31-83, .839 OPS
  •     Carlos Correa: .279-26-92, .850 OPS
  •     Kyle Tucker: .294-30-92-14, .917 OPS
  •     Yordan Alvarez .277-33-104, .877 OPS

I could tell you that the Astros won’t have their ace, Lance McCullers (13-5, 3.16 ERA 185 K in 162 IP) this series, which is a huge loss. The Red Sox will have Chris Sale. Edge: Red Sox? Not so fast. Sale has struggled a lot as he lasted just 1 IP, 5 ER (45.00 ERA) vs. Tampa Bay and he did not pitch well over his last 2 reg season starts, lasting just 7.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB. I could also tell you that Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Sale discovered a mechanical flaw in a bullpen session and Cora believes Sale will be a big factor in this series. Sale pitches game one.

Both teams have important role-players. For the Sox, Enrique Hernandez hit 20 HR and drove in 60 runs; Bobby Dalbec hit 25 HR and Alex Verdugo hit .289. Mid-season bat, Kyle Schwarber hit .291 with 7 HR, all of them seeming to come in big spots. For the Astros, bench OF Chas McCormick hit .257-14-50, while Jake Meyers — the guy who replaced Myles Straw — went .375 (3 for 8) and a stolen base against the White Sox.

The Sox bullpen has been a weak spot all season, but they’ve re-tooled it on the fly, and Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, and Nick Pivetta, combined v. Tampa to go 3-0, 2.50 ERA and a sub 0.50 WHIP. The Sox hit .341 v. Rays, with 9 HR 26 RBI .915 OPS over 4 games.

The Astros meanwhile only hit .288 v. the White Sox, with just 4 HR; but had 31 RBI and 18 BB over just 4 games. Altuve hit .313; Brantley hit .368; Bregman hit .375; Correa hit .385.

So, what does all this mean? I have no idea. Really this series can and should be a back and forth battle over seven games. The Red Sox are slight underdogs, so if I’m betting, I’m likely taking the Red Sox, merely because the odds are better and it’s a complete toss-up. If you’re asking me who I think will win, I’m going to say the Astros win in seven.  But I’m not at all confident of that. I think they’re seeing the ball better; Sale isn’t right until he proves otherwise, and the Astros overall have better hitting and pitching depth over a long series.

My gut tells me the Astros win, but the value is on the Red Sox.