The playoffs are here, and the Sunday NFL Wild Card odds are live on BetRivers.com, giving bettors over 200 betting options on each of the three playoff games.
Longtime broadcaster and gambling expert David Tuchman breaks down the Sunday NFL Wild Card odds and analyzes the value plays worth a wager.
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2020 NFL Playoffs: Sunday NFL Wild Card Odds
#5 Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at #4 Tennessee Titans (11-5), 1:05 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Ravens -177, Titans +155
SPREAD: Ravens -3
OVER/UNDER: 54.5 points
Click here for the full list of Titans-Ravens playoff odds.
Titans vs. Ravens Betting Trends: The public is on the Ravens to win (63% of ML handle) and cover (67% of spread handle). The public is also on Over 54.5 — the largest game total of the weekend — with 67% of the O/U handle. Tennessee finished the season 12-3-1 O/U, the best in the NFL, and was 3-1 O/U when the game total was 53 or larger. Baltimore, meanwhile, was 7-9 O/U, hitting the over in three of its final five games, but failing to do so in its final two games.
Titans vs. Ravens: Tuck’s Take: Lamar Jackson and Baltimore have been on fire lately, but before we give them the championship, let’s take a look at who they played.
Their last five games were all wins and 5-0 against the spread as well. Very impressive, right? Their last 5 games were vs Dallas, Cleveland, Jacksonville, the NY Giants and Cincinnati. Still impressed?
There’s no doubt Baltimore is playing better and the move to get J.K. Dobbins more involved has been a shot of adrenaline to their offense, but I still see a team that is decidedly unbalanced. I’m not convinced a team that can’t pass the ball can win in 2021.
Five straight wins against the spread, the vast majority of money is going on Baltimore, we’re going contrarian.
In Tennessee, the bet is on the home team. This should be a 3 point line on a neutral field. Home field doesn’t mean much, but in Tennessee, I’ve got this at Baltimore -1.5 . Give me the Titans +3.5.
#7 Chicago Bears (8-8) at #2 New Orleans Saints (12-4), 4:40 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Saints -480, Bears +390
SPREAD: Saints -10
OVER/UNDER: 47 points
Click here for the full list of Saints-Bears playoff odds.
Saints vs. Bears Betting Trends: In the most wagered-on Sunday playoff game, the Saints are the public pick to win outright, backed by 72% of the ML handle. The Saints are 2-0 ATS when favorites of nine or more points, while the Bears are 0-3 ATS when underdogs of six or more points. The public is almost split, with 55% of the spread handle backing the Saints. The public is on Over 47.5 with 72% of the O/U handle. The Bears have hit the over in four of their last five, and the Saints have hit the over in six of eight home games
Saints vs. Bears: Tuck’s Take: Betting against Bears QB, Mitch Trubisky is so enticing, but The New Orleans Saints haven’t covered the spread in the playoffs during the Alvin Kamara/Michael Thomas era.
I’m aware that doesn’t mean much when it comes to the game this Sunday and if I had to bet,, I’d take New Orleans, but I don’t feel great about it. That’s the great thing about betting on sports. You can “wait for your pitch” Make the bets you love, avoid the rest.
With an aging (and that is being polite) Drew Brees under center, the Saints know this is their chance, but they thought that last year too. Do I think the Saints are going to win? Yes. Do I think they win often enough to bet them at -500? No. Do I think they cover a 10 point spread? It’s close, but -10 feels about right.
My prediction: Saints 27 Chicago 18 with a slight lean toward the under, but I don’t see the value.
As strange as it may seem, I am avoiding this game for now.
#6 Cleveland Browns (11-5) at #3 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4), 8:20 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Steelers -265, Browns +225
SPREAD: Steelers -6
OVER/UNDER: 47 points
Click here for the full list of Steelers-Browns playoff odds.
Steelers vs. Browns Betting Trends: The public was on Cleveland in Week 17, but the stakes are much different. Bettors are backing the Steelers with 87% of the ML handle to win and 89% of the spread handle to cover. The public is also on 47.5 (66% of O/U handle), as both teams are 3-2 O/U in their last five.
Steelers vs Browns: Tuck’s Take: This is an interesting spot for so many reasons. Last time these two faced off, Pittsburgh obliterated the Browns 38-7. That was way back on October 18th so I’m not sure how relevant it is, but we certainly can’t ignore it.
Since then, Baker Mayfield has played the QB position almost as well as anyone while the Steelers limped into the playoffs.
These teams played again last week, but Pittsburgh rested Ben Roethlisberger so hard to read much into that one.
Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski and Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio both tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss this game. In addition, Cleveland’s facility has been closed since Tuesday morning and the Browns have been unable to practice.
As a result, the line has moved from around a field goal to six points. That’s quite the move and all of this makes this game incredibly difficult to handicap.
So, the questions we ask ourselves is:
How valuable is practice at this point of the season?
How valuable is a head coach?
Pittsburgh has been so bad the last few weeks, I’m going to bet on Cleveland. Baker Mayfield has had the bright lights on him for several years now – I think he’ll shine when it matters most.
The Steelers’ run game has been pathetic the past six weeks and I don’t think Big Ben is playing at a level where he can put this team on his shoulders.
Cleveland +6 is the play.
Sunday NFL Wild Card Odds: Tuck’s Take
- Titans +3.5
- Cleveland +6