Saturday NFL Wild Card Odds

The playoffs are here, and the Saturday NFL Wild Card odds are live on BetRivers.com, giving bettors over 200 betting options on each of the three playoff games.

The Saturday NFL Wild Card odds favor the home teams in two of the three games. The NFL’s hottest team, the Buffalo Bills are the overwhelmingly popular pick to beat the Indianapolis Colts in Orchard Park. With Jared Goff still doubtful for the Los Angeles Rams, bettors like the Seattle Seahawks to hold serve at home against their NFC West rivals. At 7-9, Washington has the least wins of any team in the playoff field but hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, having won the NFC East. But the Bucs enter as eight-point road favorites and the public is all over Tom Brady and the Bucs to win and cover.

Longtime broadcaster and gambling expert David Tuchman breaks down the Saturday NFL Wild Card odds and analyzes the value plays worth a wager.

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2020 NFL Playoffs: Saturday NFL Wild Card Odds

#7 Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at #2 Buffalo Bills (13-3). 1:05 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Bills -278, Colts +240
SPREAD: Bills -6.5
OVER/UNDER: 51 points
Click here for the full list of Bills-Colts playoff odds

Bills vs. Colts Betting Trends: The Bills have won six straight games and have covered in eight straight games. Bettors are confident in Buffalo advancing past the Colts to the Divisional Round, backed by 92% of the ML handle. The public is also on the Bills — 3-1 ATS when favorites by six or points — to cover (82% of spread handle).

Bills vs. Colts: Tuck’s Take: The Bills-Colts playoff odds opened with Buffalo favored by 6.5, before moving to 7 and seems to have settled at 6.5

Josh Allen is significantly better than Philip Rivers and I don’t put much weight into the experience factor. I mean, Rivers has a ton of experience losing in the playoffs. Not sure how that helps him in Buffalo on Saturday.

That said, Josh Allen still has to deal with the more formidable defense and I love Indianapolis head coach, Frank Reich. 

At +7, Indianapolis is the play, so if you can get that, jump on it. 

At 6.5, I’m leaning Indy, but my bet this week is on the money line. We won’t win this bet as often, but we don’t need to for this to be a profitable bet. In fact, we only need Indianapolis to win the game 28% of the time for this bet to turn a profit. Now, I don’t expect to “win” this bet, but my models have Indianapolis winning this game approximately 36.7% of the time which represents significant value.

Despite the fact, we prefer to back the better QB, we’ll take the value and bet 1 unit on the Colts to win 2.6 units. 

#6 Los Angeles Rams (10-6) at #3 Seattle Seahawks (12-4). 4:40 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Seahawks -167, Rams +145
SPREAD: Seahawks -3
OVER/UNDER: 42 points
Click here for the full list of Seahawks-Rams playoff odds

Seahawks vs. Rams Betting Trends: Seattle is backed by 87% of the ML handle to win and 71% of the spread handle to cover. The Rams and Seahawks split the season series, with each team covering once. Both matchups failed to hit the Over (55.5 and 48). Seattle hit the over in its regular-season finale, having failed to do so in its seven previous games. Likewise, the Rams played to the under in their final four games of the season. The public is backing Under 42 with 71% of the O/U handle.

Seahawks vs. Rams: Tuck’s Take: Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald give the Rams a chance to win any game and they are perfectly built to contend with the passing prolific offenses of today. They’ll need to be at their best because Jared Goff is coming back from injury and even with him healthy, the Rams offense has been mediocre to bad. If Goff doesn’t play or gets hurt again during the game, the Rams will be drawing dead with John Wolford under center. 

On the other side of the ball, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense have been in a bit of funk lately. Not bad, mind you, but we’ve certainly seen them play better. If you’ve read my blogs all year, you know I have a man-crush on Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf, but let’s not forget Tyler Lockett. This Seattle team has enough weapons and with Wilson calling the shots, they’ll be good enough at home to win. 

I’m leaning Seattle -3.5 although I think it’s pretty close to being properly priced. I’ve got Seattle -4.5 so not a ton of value here. If the line moves down to 3, get on that quick.

Update: The line has moved to -3.

Once again, I’ll be betting on the money line. Seattle is -175 to win the game which means the Seahawks will need to win this game 64% of the time for me to turn a profit. At home, I’ve got them winning this game almost 69% of the time.

In addition, while I have mentioned the offensive woes of both clubs, the total of 42 is certainly representative of that. Whether it’s using his legs or his arm (or both), Wilson will find a way to get the ball into the end zone. The Rams will have to do whatever they can to match him. Again, I have little faith in the Ram’s offense, but in the playoffs, you’ll see teams scratch, claw, do whatever it takes to stay in the game. They’ll score enough to go OVER the 42 total. 

I see this game at 26-21 Seattle. 

My favorite bet in this game is the total as we’ll bet OVER 42 

We’re also betting on Seattle to win the game on the ML. 

#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) at Washington Football Team (7-9). 8:15 p.m.
MONEYLINE: Buccaneers -375, Washington +310
SPREAD: Buccaneers -8
OVER/UNDER: 44.5 points
Click here for the full list of Buccaneers-Washington playoff odds

Washington vs. Buccaneers Betting Trends: Washington has failed to hit the over in five straight games, while the Buccaneers have hit the over just twice in their last five. Bettors are backing Under 45 with 68% of the O/U handle, up from 53% on Tuesday. Washington has not won a home playoff game since 1999, and Tom Brady has suffered just one defeat to Washington in six attempts, way back in 2003. The public is backing Tampa Bay with 93% of the ML handle to win and 78% of the spread handle to cover the second-largest differential of the weekend.

Washington vs. Buccaneers: Tuck’s Take: Between Head Coach, Ron Rivera’s fight with cancer and Alex Smith’s comeback from a devastating injury, the Washington Football club is the feel-good story of this NFL season. Their improbable run to the playoffs culminating with a mediocre performance last Sunday night.

It was that performance and the perception that this team has no chance to even keep this game competitive that has moved the line for this game all the way to 8.5 points.

Earlier in the season, I was impressed by the Buccaneers’ defense and I thought that balance made them dangerous come January, but their defense has slipped. Truth be told, Tampa Bay has one win vs a playoff team this season. Now, they can’t control their schedule, but for the record, they are 1-5 vs teams that made the playoffs this season. 

Now, you can make the argument that Washington isn’t a real playoff team and that’s fair, but on the road, there’s no way this line should be 8.5 points.

Despite what you saw last week, despite Washington’s issues on offense, the play this week is Washington +8.5.

Saturday NFL Wild Card Odds: Tuck’s Take

  • Colts +260 ML (betting 1 unit to win 2.6)
  • Seahawks -3
  • Seahawks -175 ML
  • Seahawks-Rams Over 42
  • Washington +8.5