The playoffs are here, and the Saturday NFL Divisional Round odds are live on BetRivers.com, giving bettors over 200 betting options on each of the two pivotal matchups.
The Saturday NFL Wild Card odds favor the home teams, with the Green Bay Packers heavy favorites to beat the Los Angeles Rams in the first game of the day, and the red-hot Buffalo Bills a slight favorite against the equally hot Baltimore Ravens.
Longtime broadcaster and gambling expert David Tuchman breaks down the Saturday NFL Divisional Round Odds and provides his picks and predictions on the two epic showdowns.
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#6 Rams (10-6) at #1 Packers (13-3), 4:35 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Packers -315, Rams +270
SPREAD: Packers -6.5
OVER/UNDER: 45.5 points
Click here for the full list of Packers-Rams Playoff Odds.
Packers vs. Rams Betting Trends: With Aaron Rodgers under center, Green Bay is 4-2 in home playoff games and 4-1 against the Rams. Bettors have made Packers ML the strongest bet of the divisional round, backed by 92% of the ML handle. Bettors are also on the Packers to cover (82% of spread handle), with money continuing to back Green Bay ATS.
The Packers have covered in two straight and in four of their last six. The Packers are 9-7 O/U, but the Rams, leaning heavily on their Aaron Donald-led defense, are 5-12 O/U and have failed to hit the over in four of their last five. But the public is riding with the Packers’ explosive offense, backing Over. 45.5 with 72% of the O/U handle.
Packers vs. Rams Odds: Tuck’s Take: There’s a lot to chew on in this game. The line opened at 7.5/7 but a steady diet of bets on Green Bay has pushed the line through 7 to 6.5.
This is a game of strength on strength as we have future Hall of Famer, likely MVP (he’s going to win) Aaron Rodgers and his all-world receiver, Davante Adams vs the top-rated defense in the NFL.
I was on the Rams early in the week when I was getting 7.5 points, but now, there’s more to consider.
Is Aaron Donald healthy? According to him, “I feel good, I feel strong and I’ll be ready to go come Saturday,” Keep in mind, Donald has never missed a game due to injury during his seven-year career. This is good news for the Rams because without him, they’re dead on arrival.
The Green Bay Packers lost All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari to injury and his replacement wasn’t particularly good. In fact, he was so bad, the Packers brought in veteran offensive tackle Jared Veldheer. Unfortunately, Veldheer tested positive for Covid and won’t be available.
It doesn’t take expert analysis to realize that going into a game vs the Rams is a bad time to lose your all-pro left tackle.
There’s the Davante Adams vs Jalen Ramsey matchup which is incredibly intriguing. I could watch a separate feed of these two battling all day.
For the Rams to keep this game close, Ramsey will need to continue shutting down elite receivers. If Ramsey can shut down Adams and Aaron Donald can dominate the line of scrimmage and pressure Rodgers, the Rams have a chance.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams pedestrian offense will need to find success running the ball with Cam Akers. Rams QB, Jared Goff has been horrific since week twelve and with a broken thumb, it’s hard to imagine he’s going to turn things around this week vs what is a good pass defense in Green Bay.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Green Bay has been very generous to opposing RBs.
The formula for the Rams to keep this game close and possibly win?
- Get pressure on Rodgers
- Ramsey shuts down Adams
- Cam Akers runs the ball with a ton of success
Sounds simple, huh?
To be honest, all of the above things are actually likely to occur (especially considering Green Bay is without their starting left tackle)
Here’s the issue. First off, if anything goes wrong and the Packers take an early lead, the Rams just don’t have the passing game to get themselves back into it.
The other issue is that Pete Carroll isn’t coaching Green Bay.
Green Bay’s head coach, Matt LaFleur, is very aware of which side of his bread is buttered on. He’s not going to play this game ‘not to lose’ He’ll give the reigns to Aaron Rodgers and allow his elite QB to win the game for him.
When it comes down to it, I’m definitely leaning Rams +6.5, but I’m fully aware of the fact that the Packers could win this game 34-13.
When it comes down to it, where’s my money going?
- Rams +7.5 (use the alternate lines at Betrivers.com to get the extra point)
- Green Bay ML (Rodgers will find a way to win this game)
- OVER 45.5
Final Score: 27-21 Green Bay
#5 Ravens (11-5) at #2 Bills (13-3), 8:15 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Bills -148, Ravens +128
SPREAD: Bills -3
OVER/UNDER: 50 points
Click here for the full list of Bills-Ravens Playoff Odds.
Bills vs. Ravens Betting Trends: A day after betting opened, the public was on the Ravens to win (54% of ML handle) and cover (53% of spread handle), but the money has since shifted in favor of the Bills. Bettors are currently on Buffalo to win (52% of ML handle) and cover (56% of spread handle). The public has been on the over from the jump, even with a good bit of steam headed toward the under. Over 49.5 is currently being backed by 70% of the O/U handle.
Bills vs. Ravens Odds: Tuck’s Take: As a New York Jet Fan, it pains me to see two QBs from the 2018 draft class in this game, both drafted after Sam Darnold.
Enough about me, this is about the player who was taken 7th overall, Josh Allen. After being somewhat inconsistent early in his career, maybe even earlier this season, he’s been arguably better than anyone not named Aaron Rodgers since mid-November.
Allen can beat you with his arm and with his legs, but he’s far more dangerous with his arm.
Twenty-five picks later, Lamar Jackson went to Baltimore and despite pundits suggesting he wouldn’t be successful because of his limitations as a passer, Jackson has been a revelation in Baltimore. He hasn’t been what he was in 2019, but as we saw last week, there’s nobody more dangerous with the ball in their hands.
So how does this game on Saturday play out?
Baltimore’s defense was able to limit Tennessee last week, but I think Buffalo has the edge in this matchup, Whether it’s Allen getting a key first down with his legs, or one of his talented receivers exploiting the openings in the defense, the Bills should be able to move the ball. Allen was fantastic last week vs a tough Indianapolis defense and Baltimore’s pass defense just isn’t at that level.
On the other side, whether it’s J.K. Dobbins or Lamar Jackson, I’m not convinced anyone can shut down that running game in Baltimore. Betting against Lamar Jackson isn’t advised for the faint of heart. Each and every time he has the ball in his hands, he could break one and go the distance. It’s incredibly stressful on defense and I’m willing to bet that at some point, the defense breaks down and Jackson will be gliding into the end zone.
So where’s my money going?
The OVER. Despite the vast majority of tickets and cash going on the OVER, the number has remained at 50. OVER 50 is the play.
As for the game, I will continue to motivate Baltimore with my negativity. I believe this game comes down to which offense can score more and possibly who can score last. Buffalo has more ways to beat you and so I’ll be taking Buffalo.
- Buffalo -2.5
- Buffalo to win ML
- Over 50
Buffalo wins this game 31-27.