The 117th edition of The Fall Classic begins on Tuesday, October 26 and BetRivers.com is proud to provide a wide variety of World Series betting odds, series outcome markets, futures, teasers, and player props. Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview the World Series betting odds and provide his analysis on the best bets worth a wager in Game 1 tonight and in series markets.
Just like we drew it up in March huh? Well…not quite. The Houston Astros managed to fend off the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox to get to their 3rd world series since 2017. The ‘Stros won it all in ’17 (the cheating scandal); got beat in 2019 by the Washington Nationals, and now, guided by the calm veteran presence of Dusty Baker as manager, Houston is back…back again. Shady’s back. Tell a friend.
On the other side of the diamond, the Atlanta Braves, who were left for dead at the trade deadline, under .500, trailing both the Mets and Phillies and having lost their best player – Ronald Acuna – for the year, made a series of unheralded at the time moves, acquiring four – yes four – OF Bats, to replace the one Acuna. Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall, all rotated in and out of the Braves outfield in the second half, lending support to their all-world infield of Riley, Albes, Swanson, and Freddie Freeman, as the Braves stormed by everyone, including the 95-win Brewers and 106 win Dodgers, to get to their first World Series, since 1999. The Braves lost the NLCS in 2019 and 2020, both to the Dodgers, before finally beating Los Angeles this year.
WORLD SERIES BETTING ODDS:
Series Winner: Astros -148, Braves +120
4-0: Astros +1100, Braves +1600
4-1: Astros +625, Braves +800
4-2: Astros +375, Braves +500
4-3: Astros +425, Braves +525
Total Games Played: Over 5.5 (-195), Under 5.5 (+155)
Series Spread: Astros -1.5 (+130), Braves +1.5 (-162)
THE CASE FOR THE ASTROS:
Boy, it’d be fun to see Dusty Baker finally win a World Series. He’s led 5 teams to the playoffs, won over 2000 games as a manager, in 24 seasons, been in baseball as a player, coach or manager for over five decades. He’s never won a World Series. This has to be his year right?
The Astros have home-field advantage, so four of the seven games will be in Houston, where the home crowd…uh…could make difference? Frankly, the Astros are the better team, with a slew of monstrous hitters, including righty bats Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman. This is worth noting because the Braves’ best relievers – Matzek, Will Smith and AJ Minter – are all lefties. The Braves could struggle to get these guys out in the late innings.
The Astros also have a few lefty bats, including ALCS MVP Yordan Alvarez, who hit .522, 1.408 OPS with 12 hits in 23 AB v. the Red Sox. So, clearly, the Astros are the favorite.
THE CASE FOR THE BRAVES:
Destiny. They won only 88 games, but they were 44-46 on July 16th and went 44-27 the rest of the way. They lost Acuna, but still managed to get all the way to the big dance. While the Astros have homefield, this might actually help the Braves, because they can play Soler, Duvall, Rosario AND Pederson, 3 in the OF, and 1 at DH.
The Astros lost their ace, Lance McCullers, for the series, and after Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquiddy, they don’t really have someone for Game 4. It could be Valdez on short rest, or a bullpen game. Or they could go with Zack Greinke, 13.50 ERA v. Boston or Jake Odorizzi, 9.00 ERA v. Boston. None of those options are appealing.
Braves secret weapon: Charlie Morton. In 2017, he was the Astros hero in Game 7, helping secure the WS victory). However, since 2017, Morton has faced the Astros 3x in the playoffs, all with Tampa Bay. He’s 3-0. He’s starting Game 1 for Atlanta.
Hot hitters: Freeman, 2 HR in NLCS, .286; Rosario .560, 3 HR 9 RBI, 1.647 OPS, in NLCS; Albies, .280, 2 SB, 7 runs in NLCS; Yordan Alvarez .522, 1.408 OPS in ALCS, Gurriel, .455, 1.156 OPS, 6 RBI in ALCS
Cold hitters: Austin Riley, .200; Joc Pederson, .227; Swason, .261, 0 HR; Altuve, .125; Correa, .250; Bregman, .217.
WHO WILL WIN THE WORLD SERIES?
I think this Series is going the distance. It will go down to the wire, and despite everything, should be a classic. I don’t know how the Braves lefties will get the Astros righties out. But I’m not sure the Astros SP can shut down the Braves bats. Cristian Javier will be a key secret weapon out of the Pen for Dusty Baker. And the Astros winning it all will be a nice story for Baker. But the Braves were +1000 to win the WS at the beginning of the year. And +1100 when the Playoffs started. They are not surprisingly underdogs – The Braves have been bucking these odds all year. Why should the WS be any different?
WORLD SERIES PREDICTION:
The Picks: Braves in 7. Freddie Freeman wins the MVP. Kyle Tucker breaks stolen base record
Prop bet that may only interest me: The Braves catchers can’t throw shade, let alone a baseball . The record for SB in a World Series is Lou Brock’s seven, done in 1967 and again in 1968. I’m saying Astros OF Kyle Tucker will break that record and steal eight bases! Crazy, crazy bet. But fun.