The 2021 MLB regular season is in full swing and with the third weekend of the season finally here, it’s time to take a look at our Weekend MLB picks for April 9 to April 11. BetRivers.com is proud to provide a wide variety of MLB game odds, teasers, props, player markets, team markets and futures odds. Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview the notable games and make his MLB Weekend picks.
And we’re off! Baseball season is underway and we couldn’t be happier. Well, I suppose San Diego Padre fans could be happier (more on that later).
Each and every week, I’ll be posting our weekend baseball picks. Follow along here and on Twitter @tuckonsports. We had a winning NFL season and we’re currently winning in the NHL, so let’s keep the good vibes rolling.
Alright, so you want my three to four best bets for MLB, the weekend of April 9-11. Well, I got nothing. The problem is, a lot of these teams’ starting pitchers are still TBD – meaning, we all know who’s pitching, but they haven’t officially announced it yet. However, since you know me, and I know baseball, I’ve got a pretty solid idea of who’s starting and which matchups I absolutely love for this weekend.
Keep in mind, COVID-19 is still wreaking havoc with the Nationals. And these picks could change if covid injuries keep popping up. Also, major injuries – the Padres for example, who did not make this list, this weekend – have just lost Fernando Tatis Jr., for a long time with a shoulder subluxation. Ouch.
That being said, I think we were able to find some good opportunities, my friend. Let’s get to the Weekend MLB picks.
WEEKEND MLB PICKS: FRIDAY, APRIL 9
Philadelphia Phillies (5-1) @ Atlanta Braves (2-4), 7:20 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Braves -132 ML, Phillies +114 ML
SPREAD: Braves -1 (+120), Phillies +1 (-143)
OVER/UNDER: 7.5 runs (-114/-105)
Click here for the full list of Phillies-Braves odds.
In a surprising twist to start the season, the Atlanta Braves started 0-4, while the Phillies jumped out to a 4-0 start before losing to the Mets. Despite this, people haven’t quite jumped off the Atlanta bandwagon just yet. Regardless, I think the Phillies absolutely crush the Braves in this one. Zack Wheeler is coming off one of the best first starts of 2021, over these same Braves, going seven shutout innings with 10 Ks. The only Braves that historically have hit Wheeler are Freddie Freeman (.486) and Ronald Acuna (.316), but you gotta avoid those two anyway. No one else in the lineup can do anything against Wheeler. I believe he has the upper hand against the Braves once again on Friday night. The Braves SP, Charlie Morton doesn’t have a ton of history against these Phillies, although he’s faced a few of them: Jean Segura (.217) Didi Gregorius (.273), and JT Realmuto (.273). Bryce Harper has absolutely murdered him in limited play (6-10). It doesn’t matter. I don’t think Morton has his stuff anymore – he’s running on fumes and the Phillies know it. Expect a comfy win from the Phightin’ Phils.
The Pick: Philadelphia
WEEKEND MLB PICKS: SATURDAY, APRIL 10
BOSTON RED SOX (4-3) at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (4-3), 7:05 p.m. ET
On April 4th, the Red Sox hosted the Baltimore Orioles. The matchup was veteran Red Sox starter, Garrett Richards versus youngster Bruce Zimmermann, who had never faced the Sox before. The Orioles led 10-0 by the third inning, on their way to an 11-3 win and sweep of the Sox. Fast-forward a week later, and the Sox-O’s will dance again on Saturday, where Richards and Zimmerman face off again. After getting demolished by the Orioles the weekend before, Richards was optimistic, saying, “I’ve got 32 more starts.” I don’t think he does. He also said he threw “some competitive pitches.” Um, I’ll take the Orioles at home in this one because the scouting report suggests they can really hit “competitive pitching.” Expect them to tee off on Richards again. And again. And again.
The Pick: Baltimore Orioles
WEEKEND PICKS: SUNDAY, APRIL 11
MIAMI MARLINS (1-6) at NEW YORK METS (2-2), 1:10 p.m. ET
This seems like a no-brainer for the Mets, especially with Marcus Stroman, the Mets likely SP, coming off a big performance in his first game of the year on April 6. Stroman basically dominated the Phillies. When we look under the hood, there’s a bit more to see. The Marlins have a rather good pitcher going too – Sandy Alcantara, who whiffed 10 Cardinals in his last start. Since 2019, righties hit .190 versus Alcantara. He has also pitched to a 1.42 ERA on the road. The Mets will roll with 4 lefties (Lindor is a switch hitter) but Alcantara has dominated some of the Mets’ best hitters. Pete Alonso is 1-11, Brandon Nimmo, 1-13, and Dominic Smith is 0-9. Only Michael Conforto (6-20, 2 HR) and Jeff McNeil (6-17, .353) have hit him. Alcantara has been a K machine early on, striking out 17 batters over his first 12 innings.
For the Marlins, only Corey Dickerson has faced Marcus Stroman, but he absolutely OWNS Stroman, going 14-33, a .424 average. Also, since 2019, lefties have hit .291 vs. Stroman. I think this is a close game – both pitchers are solid, but I think Alcantara out-pitches Stroman, and I don’t have any faith in the Mets bullpen at the moment. The Marlins in a pitcher’s duel is the call.
The Pick: Miami Marlins
WASHINGTON NATIONALS at LOS ANGELES DODGERS, 4:10 p.m. ET
I’m finishing up with a shocker. The Nationals will beat the Dodgers on Sunday. Yeah, I know. We said the Dodgers could be one of the all-time great teams, we’ve got them to win OVER 102.5 wins, We’ve got them to win the series, so why in the world are we betting against them?
Scherzer didn’t pitch great in his first start. He gave up three bombs in the first 2 innings v. Atlanta. I believe people think Scherzer is washed up at 36. The Dodgers are going with young hurler Dustin May. His first start against the Athletics was April 5, and he dominated, giving up just 2 hits, striking out 8 over 6 innings. So why am I going against the grain here with the Nats?
The Dodgers can’t hit Scherzer.
Scherzer is has 92 K and a 2.76 ERA in his career vs. LA. Cody Bellinger is 1-11; Corey Seager is 0-9; AJ Pollock is 2-12 and Mookie Betts is 0-3 (ok 1 game, but still…) Only Justin Turner (1-2, HR) and Max Muncy (3-9, HR) have had any kind of success v. Mad Max. I think, given how the Nationals are supposed to be a bit worse this year, and their entire team is riddled with Covid, we should get a good price betting on the Nationals and I see the significant value.
The Pick: Washington Nationals