UFC 258 odds: Usman vs. Burns

The UFC holds its first show of February with a welterweight title fight headlining the event, and BetRivers.com is proud to provide a wide variety of UFC 258 odds, props, and specials. In the main event, Kamaru Usman defends his UFC welterweight title against Gilbert Burns, and the current UFC 258 odds have Usman as a -278 ML favorite to win. The UFC 258 main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 13, with the preliminary card beginning at 8 p.m ET and the early prelims starting at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Click here for the full list of UFC 258 Odds.

In the co-main event, highly touted prospect Maycee Barber (8-1, +110 ML) makes her return for the first time since injuring her knee against Roxanne Modafferi in January 2020. Barber faces Alex Grasso (12-3, -137 ML), who has a bevy of experience having faced the likes of Carla Esparza, Tatiana Suarez, Randa Markos, Felice Herrig and Heather Clark.

Also on the main card is a really fun middleweight matchup between Kelvin Gastelum (15-6, -225 ML) and Ian Heinisch (14-3, +175 ML) in a fight that isn’t likely to reach the final bell, which opens up a world of UFC 258 odds possibilities. Although Gastelum has dropped three straight fights, the former Ultimate Fighter Winner has faced nothing but top contenders since 2015, with wins over the likes of Ronaldo Souza, Michael Bisping, Tim Kennedy and Johnny Hendricks. 

UFC 258 Odds: Usman vs. Burns Preview

The UFC welterweight championship is on the line as Kamaru Usman (17-1, -278 ML) defends his title for the third time when he faces former training partner and top contender Gilbert Burns (19-3, +220) in the main event. Usman is the favorite to retain according to the UFC 258 odds, but the public isn’t necessarily in agreement. Usman is backed by 61% of main event bets, but the public is basically split on the handle, with 52% of the total fight handle backing the challenger Burns, as of Friday afternoo.

The two fighters trained together for several years at American Top Team, and while their styles are different, they share a lot of similarities. While Usman prefers wrestling to Burns’ grappling, both fighters enjoy utilizing the clinch to set up their ground skills and heavy fists. While neither fighter is the greatest technical striker, both have KO power and use level changes and the clinch to create space for power punches.

Usman last competed at UFC 251, defeating Jorge Masvidal via unanimous decision in a fairly one-sided affair.

Burns enters UFC 258 on a six-fight win streak, including a blistering KO of former top contender Demian Maia and a masterful performance against former champion Tyron Woodley. The 34-year-old Brazillian began his UFC career in 2014 with three straight wins, including two armbar submission victories. But from 2015 to 2018, Burns went 3-3, with two KO victories and another armbar submission victory, but two disappointing decision losses, and a KO loss to Dan Hooker at UFC 226. Since the loss to Hooker, Burns has looked tremendous with four unanimous decision victories, a submission win, and the KO of Maia.

A KO or TKO isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but if you had to rank the potential ways the fight could finish, a decision victory or submission victory rank much higher. Having said that, there’s something about this matchup that reeks of a flash KO. Burns nearly finished Woodley in the first minute of their fight, and given the backstory in the UFC 258 main event, I would not be surprised to see a wild early exchange in which someone gets clipped.

  • Fight to end in the first 60 seconds of Round 1: +1800

Of Burns’ 15 UFC fights, eight have reached the third round. Of Usman’s 12 UFC fights, ten reached the third round. But this is a tricky fight to grade because of the fighters’ experience with each other and the similarities in how they strategize their fights.

Can Burns keep up with Usman’s relentless pace? Everything Usman does is with the intent to tire his opponent. Burns is the better grappler, but will he have the energy to pull off a slick submission if he’s had to spend the previous eight minutes carrying Usman on his back? If the fight is decided via decision, it’s highly likely Usman is retaining his championship.

Essentially, if you think Burns can win, you will find better value on how the fight ends, and if you think Usman will win, it’s likely you think he will win via decision, which also means you will find better value on how the fight ends.

  • To win by Decision: Usman +115, Burns +550
  • To win by any finish: Usman +200, Burns +375
  • To win by Submission: Usman +1800, Burns +700
  • To win by KO/TKO/DQ: Usman +225, Burns +750

Betting on Burns means betting against Usman, which is a tricky proposition considering he’s never lost inside The Octagon and his lone pro loss was in his second career bout way back in 2013.

UFC 258 Odds: Picks & Predictions

Winners: Usman, Barber, Gastelum, Green, Pitolo, Vieira, Muhammad, Martin, Ewell, Kelleher, Rowe, Maverick

Bets: Usman to win by Decision +115, Gastelum to win by KO & Green vs. Miller to go the distance parlay (+880), Kelleher +195 ML.

UFC 258 Odds: Main Card (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+, PPV)

  • Kamaru Usman (17-1, -278) vs. Gilbert Burns (19-3, +220)
  • Alexa Grasso (12-3, -127) vs. Maycee Barber (8-1, +105)
  • Kelvin Gastelum (15-6, -225) vs. Ian Heinisch (14-3, +175)
  • Bobby Green (27-11-1, -265) vs. Jim Miller (32-15, +210)
  • Julian Marquez (7-2, -177) vs. Maki Pitolo (13-7, +145)

UFC 258 Odds: Prelims (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

  • Rodolfo Vieira (7-0, -400) vs. Anthony Hernandez (7-2-1, +300)
  • Belal Muhammad (17-3, -455) vs. Dhiego Lima (17-7, +325)
  • Mallory Martin (7-3, -148) vs. Polyana Viana (11-4, +115)
  • Chris Gutierrez (15-3-2, -157) vs. Andre Ewell (17-6, +120)

UFC 258 Odds: Early Prelims (6:30 p.m. ET, UFC FIGHT PASS)

  • Ricky Simon (17-3, -250) vs. Brian Kelleher (22-11, +195)
  • Gabriel Green (9-3, -137) vs. Phillip Rowe (7-2, +110)
  • Miranda Maverick (10-2, -143) vs. Gillian Robertson (9-5, +115)

(All odds as of Friday, 2/11/21)