The NFL’s hottest team hits the road to take on the most dominant running back in the league, and BetRivers is here to break down the Titans-Bills NFL betting odds for the Week 6 edition of Monday Night Football. Since dropping the season-opener to the Steelers, the Bills have won their last four games by an average of 28.75 points, including a 35-0 road drubbing of the Dolphins in Week 2, and a 40-0 drubbing of the Texans in Week 4.
On Monday night, the Bills go up against Derrick Henry, who has amassed 640 rushing yards on 142 carries with seven TDs in the first five weeks of the 2021 NFL regular season. The Titans haven’t made things easy for themselves, needing to rally against the Seahawks and Jaguars, along with an ugly OT loss to the winless Jets. The Titans have the firepower but have lacked consistency. The Bills have the firepower too but have been very consistent. Will that be the case on Monday Night?
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Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview the Titans-Bills betting odds and provides his analysis on the best bets worth a wager.
It’s been a rough go as of late for me, so going 3-0 on Sunday felt good. We’re 30-27 on the season as we head into the Monday night tilt. Let’s break down the Titans-Bills betting odds for Week 6.
TITANS-BILLS BETTING ODDS
RECORDS: Titans (3-2, 3-2 ATS), Bills (4-1, 4-1 ATS)
GAME TIME: Monday, Oct. 18 at 8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)
MONEYLINE: Titans +225 ML, Bills -265 ML
SPREAD: Bills -6
OVER/UNDER: 53 points
TITANS-BILLS PUBLIC TRENDS
Bills ML: 87% money 86% bets
Bills Spread: 74% money, 78% bets
Over: 73% money, 74% bets
The Buffalo Bills are the hottest team in the NFL. After a weird loss to the Steelers on opening day, Buffalo has reeled off four straight and are 4-0 against the spread (with two of those games on the road) They have scored 108 more points than they’ve allowed which is the best in the league by a wide margin.
As for Tennessee, they are flying under the radar at 3-2 on the season and 3-1 ATS over their last four. You could argue a loss against the woeful Jets will do that.
If you follow me, you know where I’m going with this…
One of these teams is as hot as the sun. The public perception of this team is through the roof. They are now favored to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. For what it’s worth, I’m not arguing they aren’t deserving of these accolades. BUT, I am going to argue that the line tonight is overpriced because of it.
Tennessee has been whatever. They got destroyed by Arizona to open the season, lost to an awful Jets team, and beat a pretty bad Jacksonville Jaguars squad. I understand why the public is down on them. Or at least not high on them.
Six points on the road feels like buying the Bills high and selling Tennessee low. That’s not how we make money.
This line should be closer to 3.5 or 4 points.
The Pick: Tennessee Titans +6
One Prop bet we’re monitoring is AJ Brown over/under receiving total. Brown is a fantastic talent capable of going off at any moment. That said, he’s either been injured or quite mediocre this season.
The total is 56.5 yards, and he has to surpass that in any one game this entire season. He was also a late add to the injury report because of an illness, so we’re banging the UNDER, right?
Not so fast, the total in this game is 53. Handicappers believe this is going to be a high-scoring affair and if the game goes according to how the pundits believe it will, Tennessee will have to be throwing the ball a ton in the third and fourth quarters to keep up or play catch up.
Tennessee has played two games this season where they needed to throw in the second half: In Week 1 against the Cardinals when they lost 38-13 and in Week 2 against the Seahawks when they made a furious second-half comeback before eventually winning 33-30 in overtime. In these games, Ryan Tannehill threw the ball in Brown’s direction 17 times. He only caught seven of those passes, but the Tannehill-to-Brown connection has been fantastic in the past – I think a catch rate of 41% is an anomaly.
If AJ Brown is healthy, I think this is the game he goes off, but is he healthy?
The Pick: AJ Brown OVER 56.5 receiving yards