Saturday NFL Week 16 odds

The penultimate week of the 2020 NFL regular-season is here, and the Saturday NFL Week 16 odds are live at BetRivers.com. The day after Christmas brings three games to feast on.

Longtime broadcaster and gambling expert David Tuchman is here every week to preview the NFL Week 16 odds and break down the picks he is thinking about.

The public loves wagering against the Lions (+335 ML), and with Tom Brady coming to town, things have only intensified. Tampa Bay at Detroit is currently backed by more money than any other Week 16 game, with most of the handle backing the Buccaneers (-9.5, -400 ML).

The public is on the Bears (-7.5, -360 ML) to win (97% of ML handle) and cover (90% of spread handle) against the Jaguars (+335 ML), despite Chicago entering the game 0-2 ATS as a favorite.

The Colts (-2, -125 ML) still have their eyes on the AFC South title, and their road game at the Steelers (+110 ML) looks a lot more winnable than it did three weeks ago. Having lost three straight, the public has backed off Pittsburgh in a big way.

SATURDAY NFL WEEK 16 ODDS

Hope you all had a Merry Christmas and if you started  Alvin Kamara in your fantasy football finals, you most definitely did.

We turn our attention to a three-game Saturday. First up, Detroit hosts Tampa Bay. 

BUCCANEERS (9-5) at LIONS (5-9), 1 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Buccaneers -500, Lions+410
SPREAD: Buccaneers -10.5
OVER/UNDER: 54
Click here for the full list of Buccaneers-Lions.

The line has steadily moved up and the home team is now getting 10.5 points. I might’ve avoided this game all together if the Buccaneers defense was still playing like they were early in the season. Does everyone remember when they held Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay to 10 points? That was two long months ago and while their run defense is still stout, they’ve allowed opposing QBs to have success vs them. 

Sharps don’t make a living betting on road favorites giving double digits against teams that have good QBs. Matthew Stafford should play and he’s the reason I’m on Detroit +10.5. 

I’m also betting on Stafford to have some success in this game, so we’re betting on Stafford OVER 1.5 Touchdown passes.

49ers (5-9) at CARDINALS (8-6)
MONEYLINE: Cardinals -240, 49ers +205
SPREAD: Cardinals -5.5
OVER/UNDER: 48.5 points
Click here for the full list of 49er-Cardinals odds.

Divisional matchup with one team limping to the finish line while the other is fighting for their playoff lives. Arizona should win this game, but five points is a bit much for my comfort. 

My only bet in this game is on the total, San Francisco allowed Dallas to put up a forty burger on them last week and Arizona plays fast. I expect lots of points in this one. 

OVER 48.5 is the play. 

DOLPHINS (9-5) at RAIDERS (7-7), 8:15 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Dolphins -129, Raiders +112
SPREAD: Dolphins -2
OVER/UNDER: 49 points
Click here for the full list of Dolphins-Raiders.

The line has fluctuated all week with the Raiders actually being the favorite at one point. It’s currently Miami -3 and I have no interest giving or getting 3 points in this game. 

Raiders QB, Derek Carr was a question mark this week, but reports are that Carr is ready to go. He practiced on Wednesday and Thursday so unless he has a setback, expect him to play. 

If and when that becomes official, I expect the line to move closer to a pick’em. If it does, I’ll jump on Miami. 

This just isn’t a good matchup for Las Vegas as they struggle stopping the run which is exactly what Miami wants to do. On the flip side, Raiders RB, Josh Jacobs should have a long day playing against that Miami defense. 

Full disclosure: I have not bet on this game yet, but I almost definitely will. Follow me on twitter @Tuckonsports for my picks in this one. 

TUCK’S TAKE: NFL WEEK 16 ODDS

  • Detroit Lions +10.5
  • Matthew Stafford OVER 1.5 touchdown passes
  • OVER 48.5 Arizona/San Francisco
  • And probably Miami (waiting for that line to come down)