It’s Christmas Day, which means it’s time to nestle up near the fireplace and take a look at the Saints-Vikings Week 16 odds at BetRivers.com
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Both the Saints (-7, -335 ML) and Vikings (+275 ML) have lost two straight. Minnesota is in desperate need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, while the Saints have already clinched a spot in the playoffs. But with Drew Brees back in the saddle for New Orleans, bettors are backing the Saints to win (92% of ML handle) and cover (85% of spread handle). New Orleans went five weeks without hitting the over, but hit the over in their last two games. The Vikings, meanwhile, have hit the over just once in six road games. Bettors are leaning toward Over 51.5 with 67% of the O/U handle.
Longtime broadcaster and gambling expert David Tuchman is here every week to preview the Saints-Vikings Week 16 odds and break down the picks he is thinking about.
SAINTS-VIKINGS WEEK 16 ODDS
VIKINGS (6-8) at SAINTS (10-4), 4:30 p.m. ET
MONEYLINE: Saints -278, Vikings +235
SPREAD: Saints -6.5
OVER/UNDER: 51 points
Click here for the full list of Saints-Vikings Week 16 odds.
Can the Saints find success with Drew Brees under center, but without Michael Thomas?
Drew Brees completed 44.1% of his passes last week vs Kansas City. He hasn’t been this ineffective in years. When a future hall of famer is younger and has a bad day at the office, it’s just a bad day, move on.
But, when it’s an older player and that particular person is coming off an injury and is now without their favorite receiver, you start to wonder.
In all honesty, New Orleans wasn’t especially explosive on offense early in the season when Brees was healthy and Thomas was injured. What he brings to the table can’t be replaced so watching Brees and the offense struggle isn’t all that surprising.
On the other side of the field, Kirk Cousins’ performance on the road pales in comparison to when he’s at home. In his last two road games, Cousins had trouble dealing with the pass rush. Over the past month or so, nobody pressures the QB better than the Saints.
You hear what I’m putting down?
I’m not expecting a plethora of offensive firepower from either side, yet the total is north of 50.
UNDER 51.5 is the play.
According to the “charts” … The Saints are about 9.5 points better than the Vikings on a neutral field. In New Orleans, that’s a lot of value. This line should be closer to 10.
While I’m most definitely concerned about the Saints offense, I’m going to hold my nose and bet on New Orleans -6.5
Justin Jefferson OVER 65.5 yards.
Yes, I do think Kirk Cousins will struggle in the face of a very good pass rush, and yes, I’m still betting on Jefferson. He is the player who will likely benefit the most from that. Jefferson gets an inordinate number of his targets when Cousins is under pressure. The rookie wideout has gone over the 65.5 total in five of the last six games and has been targeted 44 times over the past four games.
Looking for a fun long shot bet?
If Kyle Rudolph plays on Christmas, we have to bet on him. I mean, his last name is Rudolph and it’s Christmas. That’s it.
Oh, were you expecting more analysis? Truth be told, the Saints are particularly friendly to opposing TEs in the end zone. That said, Rudolph hasn’t played in two weeks and didn’t practice on Wednesday so he’s iffy at best. Keep an eye on this one and make sure Rudolph is playing. Along with the same, TEs do well vs the Saints, lines, I’ll bet on Irv Smith to score the first touchdown and possibly to score at any point.
Update: Kyle Rudolph is out. Irv Smith is going to score!
TUCKE’S TAKE: Saints-Vikings Week 16 Odds
- UNDER 51.5 points
- New Orleans -6.5
- Justin Jefferson OVER 65.5 receiving yards
- Irv Smith to score first touchdown +2200 (+350 to score one at anytime during the game)