Ravens-Browns Week 14 odds

Monday Night Football is here, and the Ravens-Browns Week 14 odds are an interesting set of numbers given how the two teams have played of late. The Ravens (-3, -167 ML) and Browns (+145 ML) met in the season opener, with Baltimore decimating Cleveland 38-6. But much has changed since then.

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The Ravens have won just two of their last five games, while the Browns have won four in a row and five of their last six. The public is backing the Browns ML with 72% of the ML handle to win on Monday night and backing the Browns spread with 62% of the spread handle. Over 46 is the public pick as well, backed by 65% of the O/U handle. But the Browns and Ravens have hit the over three times in their last five games.

David Tuchman is here to break down the Ravens-Browns Week 14 odds and tells you which way you should lean.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Ravens-Browns Week 14 Odds

  • Week 14: Ravens (7-5) at Browns (9-3), 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Moneyline: Ravens -167, Browns +145
  • Spread: Ravens -3
  • Over/Under: 46 points

Click here for a full list of Ravens-Browns Week 14 odds.

Wait, no Tuesday or Wednesday night game this week? At least, the MNF game should be a good one. 

Baltimore desperately needs the win to stay in the playoff hunt, although losses from Miami and the Raiders yesterday certainly helped their cause. Don’t look now, but Cleveland could win the AFC North. Courtesy of a four-game winning streak paired with a two-game losing streak by Pittsburgh, the Browns are suddenly in control of their own destiny. 

The market has been betting Baltimore and the opening line of Ravens -2.5 has moved to -3. This makes me very happy.

After going 4-1 on Thursday, we went 2-1 yesterday, bringing our season total to 50-27-4. We’ll get cold at some point, but when you’re on fire, don’t think too much. Just enjoy the ride. 

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore and dare I say,  even Baltimore’s defense are overrated. This Ravens team isn’t bad by any stretch, but they are a far cry from the Super Bowl contender we saw last year.

The charts have them 1.5 points better than Cleveland on a neutral field. Even when I factor in the reduced home-field advantage of 2020, I still see a game that should be a pick’em.

I see value in the moneyline. Cleveland should win this game about 47.7% of the time, yet they are priced at +150 to win. Simply put,  you’re winning $1.50 for every $1 you wager on the Browns to win. They only need to win this game 40% of the time to break even. 

I also like the Browns at +3. I think this game should be closer to Baltimore -.5. 

You may not want to overexpose yourself and bet on both though so what I like to do in these cases is bet ½ a unit on each. Although, In this case, I think there’s too much value, so I’ll be betting a full unit on each. 

Last time we wrote about Baker Mayfield, he was marred by inconsistency and — let’s be honest — bad decision making..  There were questions about just how good he was and could be. I like to think my criticism inspired him because he’s been lights out the last two weeks, albeit against bottom-feeder defenses in Jacksonville and Tennessee. OK, maybe it wasn’t me, but there’s no denying Mayfield has been good. Last week, he was essentially perfect.  

Baker has struggled against good defenses though and this week he faces Baltimore. So, are we fading Baker?

NO! The perception is that Baltimore’s defense is a top 5, top 8 unit, but the reality is that they are closer to being middle of the pack. Under the bright lights, I think Mayfield reminds us all of the QB he was back in college. 

Mayfield has thrown 2 or more TD passes in seven of his twelve games this season. He’s 51% likely to do that tonight, but the line is +125, meaning he only needs to do it 44.4% of the time for us to turn a profit. 

Baltimore TE Mark Andrews has been out due to COVID-19, but just before that, he was rounding into form. His last two games were far more indicative of what we saw in 2019 from the budding star. (157 yards, 16 targets)

He’s Lamar Jackson’s favorite target and Cleveland traditionally struggles to cover the TE. Andrews had 58 yards vs the Browns back in week 1. 

Andrews receiving line is 46.5 which is laughable. While there’s no such thing as a lock, my numbers have him at 61.5  yards – that kind of discrepancy can’t be ignored. 

Tuck’s Take for Monday Night Football:

  • Cleveland ML (+150)
  • Cleveland +3
  • Baker Mayfield OVER 1.5 TD passes (+125)
  • Mark Andrews OVER 46.5 receiving yards

I’ll be doing a live Twitter takeover of the BetRivers account during the game going over any live bets I like so come join me.