By the end of the weekend, the 2020 NFL season will have reached the halfway point, and now that the NFL Week 8 odds are live on BetRivers.com, what we know and what we don’t know has never been more important.
Rob Dauster is here to break down the NFL Week 8 odds and point out the bets that are intriguing to him. He runs through the games he likes and the teasers you should think about.
NFL WEEK 6 ODDS: WEEKEND PREVIEW
Saints (4-2) at Bears (5-2). 4:25 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Saints -215, Bears +185
Spread: Saints -4
Implied Score: Saints 23.75, Bears 19.75
It’s fitting that this game is going to be played on the first day of November, because the weather outlook for Sunday very much screams “November in Chicago.” The high is 40. The low is the mid-20s. Winds are projected to be 20-30 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph. No thank you.
Now, it will be worth tracking this as the week progresses, because the only thing on the planet that is wrong more often than your local weatherman is me when I’m arguing with my wife. That said, 20-30 mph winds with gusts of up to 40 mph on a night that could dip into the 20s is not exactly conducive to playing sports outside.
“But Rob, wouldn’t this be a good thing for Chicago because it would mean that Nick Foles won’t actually have to throw passes?”
Love the outside the box thinking, but no. It is not a good thing. New Orleans is fourth in the NFL DVOA against the run, and, as anyone that has ever invested in David Montgomery in fantasy can attest, he’s not good at football. This is a bad situation.
The saving grace here is that Chicago’s defense is very real, and in a game where the total has already dropped from 47 to 43.5 by Thursday, taking a home dog at more than a field goal is not bad process. I just don’t see how the Bears are going to be able to move the ball. Where are their points going to come from? I’ll probably stay away from the total myself here simply because I don’t want to bet on the Bears in this spot. Instead, I’ll probably bet the under for the game and the under for the Bears team total.
What could go wrong?
Vikings (1-5) at Packers (5-1), 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Packers -305, Vikings +260
Spread: Packers -6.5
Over/Under: 51 points
Implied Score: Packers 29, Vikings 22.5
Like Chicago, Green Bay is going to feel awfully wintery on Sunday. The skies are expected to be clear, but a temperature in the mid-30s at kickoff with sustained winds of 20+ mph is not exactly what you are looking for when you have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
Where this gets tricky is that both starting running backs are banged up. Dalvin Cook missed week 6 before the Vikings bye, while Aaron Jones missed week 7 and did not practice on Wednesday. That’s why you’ve seen the total drop from 56 to 51.5 since it opened.
I think the biggest question that you need to answer before you decide where you want to invest in this game is whether or not you think last week was a fluke. The Packers were 4-0 before heading down to Tampa and losing 38-10 to the Buccaneers. Was that loss due to the fact the Bucs are legit Super Bowl contenders, or should we be scared off of the Packers because they haven’t exactly beaten much else?
Personally, I lean towards the former, even without Aaron Jones healthy. Jamaal Williams is good enough, the Vikings look like they might end up firing Mike Zimmer and after spending his entire career playing on the Frozen Tundra, I think Aaron Rodgers knows how to deal with sub-optimal throwing conditions. I’ll take the Packers at anything under seven.
Colts (4-2) at Lions (3-3), 1:00 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Colts -150, Lions +132
Spread: Colts -3
Over/Under: 50 points
Implied Score: Colts 26.5, Lions 23.5
The Colts are third in the NFL in defense DVOA. They are one of just two teams in the entire NFL that rank top five in DVOA against both the run and the pass. That seems relevant as they go on the road to take on a Detroit team that ranks outside the top half of the NFL in DVOA offensively.
I say that because the Colts, sitting at 4-2, are one of the teams that the metrics seem to love. They haven’t looked all that impressive on the field, they lost to Jacksonville and they were down 21-0 to Cincinnati, but a lot of that is being bad on third down and inefficient in the redzone.
Oh, and they have Philip Rivers, whose legacy in the NFL is going to be fleetingly trying to lead a drive in the final two minutes down by a score to a team he should be beating before throwing a game-ending interception.
To me, the process says take the Colts, the team the numbers like. If you can handle investing in Mr. Rivers, I say do it.
DON’T TEASE ME, BRO
- EAGLES (-2): The Cowboys might eventually figure things out, but there’s a very real chance they start something called “Ben DiNucci” at quarterback in a must-win road game against a division rival. Seems like Philly should be able to cover a field goal.
- STEELERS (+9.5): Teasing a dog up from 3.5 is not exactly the ideal — you don’t cross key numbers 3 or 10 — but I’m willing to do it in this spot. The Ravens and the Steelers are defense-first division rivals that are going to play a lot of ugly slugfests. Those are typically close and low-scoring.
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