The 2021 NFL regular season is two weeks in, and the odds for several of the upcoming games make us think we’re confident in our assessments after two games, but that just makes our NFL Week 3 picks all the more interesting. Week 3 is when sports bettors start to see trends form, but its also when our early assessments bite back. Longtime Poker broadcaster and sports bettor David Tuchman is here to preview his Week 2 NFL picks and drops knowledge on the best bets worth a wager. Increase your chance to win after reviewing the news and bet on NFL at BetRivers.
Week 3 did not get off to a great start for us on Thursday night. When we lose like we did Thursday night, it’s important to honestly evaluate our decision-making process. Was it flawed? Did we make a mistake? We don’t want to be results-oriented because weird things happen, injuries happen. There are lots of ways for us to make the best decision and still lose. That said, it’s important to understand the difference.
Our decisions were based on the fact that we thought Davis Mills would be inept. He was. We didn’t think Houston would be able to sustain drives. They didn’t. In this particular case, I feel pretty good about the bets despite losing.
We are now 15-9 (+470) on the season. Time to get back on the horse!
Let’s get to the NFL Week 3 picks.
RELATED: WEEKEND BETTING GUIDE
NFL WEEK 3 PICKS:
BUFFALO BILLS (1-1) vs. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (1-1)
MONEYLINE: Bills -335 ML, Washington +285 ML
SPREAD: Bills -7.5
OVER/UNDER: 45.5 points
BILLS vs. WASHINGTON TRENDS
Bills ML: 98% handle, 93% bets
Washington Spread: 70% handle, 74% bets
Over: 83% handle, 68% bets
Coming off last season, The Buffalo Bills were a bit overvalued in my opinion. Factor in last week’s 35-0 shellacking of the Dolphins and the public seems to love the Bills. This line started out even higher and the sharp money has been betting on Washington all week – moving the line down.
Simply put, the market is underrating Taylor Heinicke. The offense didn’t skip a beat with Heinicke under center. This market is overrating Josh Allen. Coming off a MVP caliber season, a lot was expected from Allen this season and he’s been quite disappointing.
Last week’s win hides a few of Buffalo’s biggest deficiencies. #1 on my list is that the Bills have been atrocious in pass blocking and considering this team wants to pass the ball 65% of the time, that is troublesome.
The Pick(s): Washington +8 (-109) & Taylor Heinicke OVER 21.5 pass completions
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (2-0) vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-1)
MONEYLINE: 49ers-175, Packers +150
SPREAD: 49ers -3.5
OVER/UNDER: 50 points
49ERS vs. PACKERS PUBLIC TRENDS:
49ers ML: 27% handle, 19% bets
49ers Spread: 28% handle, 24% bets
Over: 78% handle, 81% bets
The 49ers are a good team, but I’m not going to go crazy because they bested Detroit and Philadelphia. Their running game is in shambles – they called me to play RB this week, but I was busy. Jimmy Garoppolo is still quite mediocre and their defensive backfield is plagued with injuries.
My model has this game at 49ers -1.5
Getting the better QB in Aaron Rodgers and more than a FG is too much value to ignore.
The Pick: Packers +3.5 (-110)
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-0) vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-1)
MONEYLINE: Raiders -182 ML, Dolphins +160
SPREAD: Raiders -4
OVER/UNDER: 44.5 points
RAIDERS vs. DOLPHINS PUBLIC TRENDS:
Raiders ML: 95% handle, 93% bets
Raiders Spread: 63% handle, 83% bets
Over: 40% handle, 68% bets
A few years ago, the Vegas Golden Knights entered the NHL and in that season they had unparalleled success – especially at home. There was something called the “Vegas Flu” Visiting teams would go into Vegas to play and for whatever reason, they were distracted. I wonder why???
Regardless, this is essentially the first time visiting teams are traveling to Vegas to play and can theoretically enjoy the town. This could, in theory, have an adverse effect on the visiting team.
I’m betting it will … all season long.
The Pick: Raiders ML (-175)
DETROIT LIONS (0-2) vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-1)
MONEYLINE: Ravens -375 ML, Lions +310 ML
SPREAD: Ravens -7.5
OVER/UNDER: 50.5 points
LIONS vs. RAVENS PUBLIC TRENDS:
Ravens ML: 99% handle, 97% bets
Ravens Spread: 89% handle, 88% bets
Over: 78% handle, 73% bets
Huge win for Baltimore last week. A lot of younger, less experienced teams might experience a letdown after a win like that. This Ravens team has veteran leadership and I think, if anything, a win like that will galvanize them. This is a bad matchup for Detroit who really struggles against the run. Detroit also doesn’t have the firepower at receiver to come back.
I think Baltimore takes the ball and runs away with this game (literally).
The Pick(s): Baltimore -7 (-113) & Ty’Son Williams OVER 57.5 rushing yards (-110)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-1) vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (1-1)
MONEYLINE: Chiefs -315 ML, Chargers +260 ML
SPREAD: Chiefs -7
OVER/UNDER: 54.5 points
CHIEFS vs. CHARGERS PUBLIC TRENDS:
Chiefs ML: 94% handle, 88% bets
Chiefs Spread: 78% handle, 62% bets
Over: 79% handle, 84% bets
The Chiefs should be able to move the ball and score against pretty much any team. I certainly expect that to continue this week vs the Chargers.
Justin Herbert has a glorious right arm. Herbert will be forced to throw and throw and throw to keep up. Whether it’s Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler or all of the above, I expect Justin Herbert to throw the ball a ton in this one.
The Pick: Justin Herbert OVER 296.5 passing yards (-109)