The weekend is in the rear-view mirror and before we begin to break down the NFL Week 16 odds, it’s time to take a look back at the NFL betting odds recap to take stock of what bets we got right and what bets we got wrong.
David Tuchman is here to analyze the NFL Week 15 odds recap and the bets he picked.
Let’s look under the hood and examine the NFL Week 15 odds recap a bit more.
We went 6-3 this week to bring us to 58-32-4 on the season.
RELATED: WEEK 16 BETTING GUIDE
NFL Week 15 Odds Recap: What We Got Right?
1. We knew not to bet on the Giants +6.5 if Daniel Jones was out. Colt McCoy wasn’t able to generate any offense and the Cleveland Browns had little problem disposing of the G-men. As an aside, the difference in Baker Mayfield’s play from earlier in the season is remarkable.
2. The Dolphins vs. Patriots game played out like we thought it would, which is why we were on Dolphins -1. My mistake was lacking conviction and not also betting on the under. The Dolphin’s defense is legit while New England’s pass offense is looking to make history and no, not the good kind.
3. Deshaun Watson is special. He’s just too good a QB to give a lot of points too. Anytime he’s getting more than a touchdown, you have to seriously consider betting on him. Taking the Texans +7.5 against the Colts was right on the money thanks to a 27-20 win for Indianapolis.
4. Ryan Finley OVER 9.5 rushing yards. This was just free money. He surpassed that total by halftime. In fact, he finished the game with more rushing attempts than 9.5.
NFL Week 15 Odds Recap: What We Got Wrong
1. The Steelers (-7.5 1H) are in a lot worse shape than I ever imagined. Ben Roethlisberger was awful and in 2020, if your QB plays like that, it’s hard to win. Couple that with a poor performance from their offensive line, a defense that is starting to show some cracks and this is suddenly a team that is limping into the playoffs. I normally look for betting opportunities when recency bias swings the pendulum too far in one direction, but this is a case of where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Pittsburgh is in trouble and I’m not sure if they can right the ship.
2. Maybe Baltimore is finding its stride? Maybe they just played a bad Jacksonville team on a day where Jacksonville was especially bad? Regardless, I was wrong to take the Jaguars +13 . This was over before it started. Lamar Jackson threw his fourth pick in five games, but also threw three touchdowns. The most encouraging thing about Baltimore was their pass rush and their running game – two things that made them so formidable in 2019.
NFL Week 15 Odds Recap: What We Learned
- The Jets definitely did not tank that game vs the Raiders. And December 20, 2020 could go down as one of the worst days in the history of the Jets franchise which is saying a lot considering it’s the Jets we’re talking about. Beating the Rams and possibly losing out on Trevor Lawrence could come back to haunt this franchise for the next decade.
- I’m not sure what the Eagles do with Carson Wentz and I don’t know if Jalen Hurts is the guy who takes Philadelphia back to the promised land, but there’s little doubt that the Eagles are better with Hurts under center.
- When Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are playing at their best, there’s only one team in the NFL that can match them offensively. Their defensive issues could ultimately be their undoing, but no defensive coordinator wants to face that team right now.